Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

From my Swedish perspective its sheer idiocy, Russia only responds to force and maximum force is what is needed. Letting Russia play its silly games just prolongs the war and the suffering. Our politicians seem to agree since we've sent twice as much per capita as the US without any limitations set on the equipment. But in absolute terms it's of course borderline irrelevant compared to the American aid, so we can afford to be less responsible also.

If the Ukrainians can hang tight to the end of this year they'll be in a much better situation regarding ammo and equipment. If Trump looks set to win then that should concentrate minds in Europe even further. I just hope the Ukrainians don't get ground down this summer. 

[crazy canuck]

This is a long read published in the Globe and Mail, about some of the elite soldiers in the Ukrainian army.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/519974dc5e28f762a87fb14c1570523f4fb873adfcfcb945043907ccc3c41650/OKXXSQSFTVBERH3OIMTG6KRGAA/

[jimmy olsen]

Seems like Russian losses are accelerating
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/06/04/as-russias-armored-vehicles-get-worse-ukraines-american-made-m-2s-destroy-them-faster/?sh=4b6c44f97abd

In 28 months of hard fighting, Russia's military has lost around 4,000 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles—the two types of armored vehicle that haul troops into battle. That's around 150 destroyed Russian APCs and more-heavily-armed IFVs a month, on average, that the analysts at Oryx have visually confirmed.

Ukrainian losses are much lower: around a thousand APCs and IFVs since Russia widened its war on Ukraine in February 2022.

Last month, Russian losses spiked—to a staggering 288 APCs and IFVs, according to analyst Andrew Perpetua, who also tallies vehicle losses in Ukraine. "This is only what we could see and count," Perpetua

https://x.com/DanielR33187703/status/1798212030366941654

• The Loaf (Bukhanka), a van designed in 1965, has become russia's main battlefield transport vehicle. The Loaf reveals a lot about how well russia is doing in Ukraine.

[Josquius]

Yes. I've been reading to a while about the Russians charging into battle on golf carts or mad max warbikes.
Wonderfully kind of them to settle some nerdy Internet debates for us.

On Ukraine holding out... Sounds like things are going well with the advancd stopping in Kharkiv and the east - heard some lamenting it's a shame Ukraine blew their reserves last summer as Russia is open for a counter attack.
But then everything would have gone different in that case.

Also on the f16. Some of what I'm reading suggests it's more a PR than practical gain due to how reliant they are on stable bases and how much Russia will be putting into wrecking them.
The need for a missile shield in west Ukraine is large

[Jacob]

This is a long read published in the Globe and Mail, about some of the elite soldiers in the Ukrainian army.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/gift/519974dc5e28f762a87fb14c1570523f4fb873adfcfcb945043907ccc3c41650/OKXXSQSFTVBERH3OIMTG6KRGAA/

Thank you. Fascinating read.

[Jacob]

Re: understanding Biden's policy decisions, here's another analysis of what his administration could be thinking:

[grumbler]

Re: understanding Biden's policy decisions, here's another analysis of what his administration could be thinking:

(snip)

It's an interesting idea, but builds its entire argument on the basis that he is guessing correctly what the Biden administration is thinking, and extrapolations like the US cutting arms supplies to Ukraine if Ukraine starts winning don't seem to me to have any basis whatsoever other than that it balances out Nielson's formulation of the three types of escalation (which I also think too simplistic).  The US has no interest that I can see in a stalemate in Ukraine.

[Jacob]

Yeah.

The advantage of the theory is that it is coherent and fits the available evidence reasonably well. It doesn't mean it's correct, however.

[Josquius]

It certainly does seem the US is very keen not see Russia beaten too badly.
And ukraine liberating it's entire country does spell dodgy times for putins regime and by extension the world.
It is a fair theory.

As to the US having no interest in a ukrainian stalemate... Putting aside all morality I can see potential us advantage in having Russia permanently stuck in Afghanistan on steroids. Especially if they can get to this without having to put in much effort themselves.
I don't think this is the reality but there is a logic to it.

[Sheilbh]

I've no idea. One other possibility is that it may also not be strategy.

It could be more human. It could be incoherence with different bits of the administration moving at different paces and possibly slightly at odds, incompetence or re-prioritisation and divided attention.

I always think there are those types of possibilities - and in a human way we maybe assign those more to people we don't like/disagree with, while more generously strategising for people we do. And vice versa.

[HVC]

It don't think keeping Russia in a stalemate really does anything for the us though. Russia is no where near the threat it was during the Cold War. Unless you're a conspiracy guy and blame the military industrial complex.

The only thing I could think, and it's not at all realistic, is a long game to get europe to up its defence spending.  Strong Europe not for Russia, but for China.

[DGuller]

I think Russia is much more of a threat than people want to think.  Their hybrid warfare can cripple the American society in a way that our WW1 and WW2 adversaries could never dream of.

[Admiral Yi]

Lots and lots of Russian vehicles getting zapped.

[Jacob]

I think Russia is much more of a threat than people want to think.  Their hybrid warfare can cripple the American society in a way that our WW1 and WW2 adversaries could never dream of.

Agreed. I think we've already been hurt by their influence and hybrid warfare operations and we are only one bad election cycle away from being in real trouble.

[Tamas]

I would urge you not to blame your shitty politics on Russia. They can reinforce the trend I am sure but can't create it from thin air.