Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[HVC]

All of this depends on the guys actually ordered to launch a nuclear strike being willing to murder their own kids on Putin's say-so.  I'm not 100% convinced that that is the case.

What if he's been told the other side launched already?

[Tonitrus]

All of this depends on the guys actually ordered to launch a nuclear strike being willing to murder their own kids on Putin's say-so.  I'm not 100% convinced that that is the case.

[Josquius]

Dunno how true it is but according to this Biden has done as I hoped and given the quiet go ahead for Ukraine to fire into Russia

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/30/biden-ukraine-weapons-strike-russia-00160731#:~:text=The%20Biden%20administration%20has%20quietly,defend%20its%20second%2Dlargest%20city.

[Duque de Bragança]

Solely near the area of Kharkiv. 

[crazy canuck]

No. I didn't say that at all. I said after the failures of ukraine they're giving more attention to trying to reach this.

This is what you said "Though post-Ukraine invasion they do seem to have really gotten engaged in making sure everything is ship shape in the nuclear force."

[DGuller]

Saw a story titled "Biden secretly gave Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia with US weapons", read the first paragraph:

The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, three U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.

I hope Russians will be good sports about it and not read the American secrets that Americans publish in their press.

[crazy canuck]

Saw a story titled "Biden secretly gave Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia with US weapons", read the first paragraph:

The Biden administration has quietly given Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia — solely near the area of Kharkiv — using U.S.-provided weapons, three U.S. officials and two other people familiar with the move said Thursday, a major reversal that will help Ukraine to better defend its second-largest city.

I hope Russians will be good sports about it and not read the American secrets that Americans publish in their press.

The Americans want the Russians to know this is coming.  The alternative is the Russians are surprised, misinterpret what is happening and push the button.  At least that is the thinking that would be consistent with the reason Americans put the ban on in the first place.

[grumbler]

All of this depends on the guys actually ordered to launch a nuclear strike being willing to murder their own kids on Putin's say-so.  I'm not 100% convinced that that is the case.

What if he's been told the other side launched already?

Some of the he's know better.  One of the purposes of drilling, of course, is to instill the habit of operating your station without thinking a llot about it, so we can't depend on self-aware Russkis. Still, they know that a lot of what they are told is lies, so a launch out of the blue may be more difficult than it appears.

[grumbler]

I was surprised at the extent to which the film-makers were given the real Navy launch procedures.  They didn't need to do that; the percentage of moviegoers who could spot any fictionalization is tiny.

[DGuller]

I imagine that making sure the dudes obey the order to launch is at the top of priorities for a nuclear force.  I wouldn't be surprised if the guys "press the button" on a regular occasion, as part of training, except in a way that no individual involved knows for sure whether that's training or the real thing.  For all they know one of those dozens of times they do the training maybe be the last time they do it, because they're actually doing the real launch this time.

[Josquius]

No. I didn't say that at all. I said after the failures of ukraine they're giving more attention to trying to reach this.

This is what you said "Though post-Ukraine invasion they do seem to have really gotten engaged in making sure everything is ship shape in the nuclear force."

Yes. You can't expect them to have accomplished a 100% overhaul in 2 years.

[crazy canuck]

So your claim of making sure everything is ship shaped, whatever it is you mean by that phrase, is nothing more then then are doing something, whatever that is, to try to fix an otherwise entirely unreliable threat.

So here is my question, if that's is the extent of your claim, why did you disagree with the notion that the Russian nuclear threat is mostly a bluff?

In other words, why try to make it sound like it is more of a threat than it actually is?

That has been the historic mystake dealing with the Soviets and now the Russians.

[Legbiter]

Big Nordic meetup in Stockholm today. Lots of long-term defense industry pipelines being set up.

[Jacob]

Looks like Ukraine is taking parts of Vovchansk back:

Frontline report: Ukraine launches counteroffensive in Vovchansk against Russians
Ukraine launches counteroffensive in Vovchansk, restoring bridges, concentrating troops. Russia attempts defense, destroying bridges but Ukraine adapts, making progress.

In Vovchansk, the situation remains highly fluid as Ukrainian forces continue their counteroffensive operations. Ukrainian troops have successfully stabilized the area, with analysts estimating that around 38,000 Ukrainian soldiers are deployed in this direction, compared to approximately 14,000 Russian troops.

Recent developments highlight substantial efforts by Ukrainian forces to regain control and secure key strategic areas.

Firstly, Ukrainian forces have successfully restored a critical bridge near Staryi Saltiv, significantly enhancing their logistical capabilities and enabling the smooth movement of troops and supplies.

Recent footage from the European Sentinel satellite reveals that Ukrainian engineers have deployed a pontoon bridge, which is crucial for sustaining the counteroffensive operations in the area by ensuring continuous support for the advancing Ukrainian units.

Secondly, various military observers report that Ukrainian forces have concentrated significant numbers in Billy Kolodiaz, preparing for a counterattack. This small settlement, located about 15 km southeast of Vovchansk, occupies a strategic height, providing quick and direct access for deploying counterattacking forces.

In response, Russian forces have attempted to destroy bridges on the Vovcha River to hinder Ukrainian advances. Despite these efforts, the Ukrainian counteroffensive is progressing, creating instability and vulnerability within the Russian positions in Vovchansk.

Reports suggest that Russian forces are preparing to retreat due to the persistent Ukrainian counterattacks. Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces, stated that Russian forces are attempting to make tactical gains in Vovchansk to establish footholds for future advances.

However, Ukrainian counterattacks, along with effective artillery and drone strikes, are thwarting these efforts. Both Ukrainian and Russian sources describe Russian operations in the area as defensive, with Ukrainian forces increasingly seizing the tactical initiative.

Recent geolocated images depict a segment of a counter-offensive operation conducted by the Siberian Battalion, a military unit composed of Russian citizens. This battalion was among the first to confront the Russian advance in the ongoing Kharkiv offensive and continues to engage in some of the most intense combat in the region.

... more details and images in the link:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/05/31/frontline-report-ukraine-launches-counteroffensive-in-vovchansk-against-russians/

[Josquius]

I've read a Russian retreat is to be expected. Their entire operation rested on having a safe home base like some kind of kids game.

So your claim of making sure everything is ship shaped, whatever it is you mean by that phrase, is nothing more then then are doing something, whatever that is, to try to fix an otherwise entirely unreliable threat.

So here is my question, if that's is the extent of your claim, why did you disagree with the notion that the Russian nuclear threat is mostly a bluff?

In other words, why try to make it sound like it is more of a threat than it actually is?

That has been the historic mystake dealing with the Soviets and now the Russians.

Before Ukraine things would have been in a state and the government was quite ignorant of this - it definitely seems they were quite surprised by their hollowed out military in invading Ukraine.
Now they know things are a mess and will be actively trying to remedy this. Also with the general massive expansion in authoritarianism it does strike me corruption will be less easy.
I don't expect they've remedied too much in a year or two but they will be on the way to this.

I agree it's mostly a bluff. I disagree it's entirely a bluff. Witness how the nazis went down, it wasn't with elegance.

The Soviets for all the authoritarian power grabbing of the leaders still did have somewhat of a belief in Marxism and being on the right side for humanity.
Fascists carry no pretense of giving a shit for anyone but their chosen group. And the size of this group can shrink to a single man if he's pissed off enough.

Big Nordic meetup in Stockholm today. Lots of long-term defense industry pipelines being set up.

Iceland decides it's leaders based on a contest of strength?
Should put him next to the Swedish guy