Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

Nothing has changed from the early 1960s. The one that convinces the other that he is crazy enough to actually go through with Nuclear strikes wins. Currently, in the West, only France looks crazy enough and Russia has the initiative vs the USA.

I think there is less reason to think the Russians pose a credible nuclear threat now than say the Cuban missile crises.

Not sure I'd agree there.
The Soviets had something to live for. They had their utopian ideology. They thought history was on their side.

Putin on the other hand... Fascism is narcissistic by nature. Quite an air of nihilism about the regime and a definite air of if I can't have it nobody can. The sheer weakness of the regime too and the fear of losing it all if their pride is hurt...

[crazy canuck]

Nothing has changed from the early 1960s. The one that convinces the other that he is crazy enough to actually go through with Nuclear strikes wins. Currently, in the West, only France looks crazy enough and Russia has the initiative vs the USA.

I think there is less reason to think the Russians pose a credible nuclear threat now than say the Cuban missile crises.

Not sure I'd agree there.
The Soviets had something to live for. They had their utopian ideology. They thought history was on their side.

Putin on the other hand... Fascism is narcissistic by nature. Quite an air of nihilism about the regime and a definite air of if I can't have it nobody can. The sheer weakness of the regime too and the fear of losing it all if their pride is hurt...

You misunderstand my point.  In the 60s the Soviets were more likely to have nukes that actually worked.

[Grey Fox]

Nothing has changed from the early 1960s. The one that convinces the other that he is crazy enough to actually go through with Nuclear strikes wins. Currently, in the West, only France looks crazy enough and Russia has the initiative vs the USA.

I think there is less reason to think the Russians pose a credible nuclear threat now than say the Cuban missile crises.

I agree. I don't know how they could have kept their 2nd strike capacity at a credible threat level considering how corrupt Russian society is & how the further you get from Moscow gaze the more opportunity there is for it.

[Tamas]

I am sure they'd reserve a few for London so I remain concerned. I live far enough not to have the sweet release of instant death but close enough to be assured of an agonising death from radiation.

Plus and I am not keen on the thought of 60 million people minus casualties locked on this island with no food.

[HVC]

Does a dud nuke still act as a improvised dirty bomb?

[Josquius]

Does a dud nuke still act as a improvised dirty bomb?

I guess the question there is whether the dud is the bomb itself or the missiles.

Nothing has changed from the early 1960s. The one that convinces the other that he is crazy enough to actually go through with Nuclear strikes wins. Currently, in the West, only France looks crazy enough and Russia has the initiative vs the USA.

I think there is less reason to think the Russians pose a credible nuclear threat now than say the Cuban missile crises.

Not sure I'd agree there.
The Soviets had something to live for. They had their utopian ideology. They thought history was on their side.

Putin on the other hand... Fascism is narcissistic by nature. Quite an air of nihilism about the regime and a definite air of if I can't have it nobody can. The sheer weakness of the regime too and the fear of losing it all if their pride is hurt...

You misunderstand my point.  In the 60s the Soviets were more likely to have nukes that actually worked.

Even factoring that in, I do believe Russia still has the power to trigger the end of the world. Even half their nukes being duds would suck. Hell. Even a handful working considering the current state of the planet....

Nothing has changed from the early 1960s. The one that convinces the other that he is crazy enough to actually go through with Nuclear strikes wins. Currently, in the West, only France looks crazy enough and Russia has the initiative vs the USA.

I think there is less reason to think the Russians pose a credible nuclear threat now than say the Cuban missile crises.

I agree. I don't know how they could have kept their 2nd strike capacity at a credible threat level considering how corrupt Russian society is & how the further you get from Moscow gaze the more opportunity there is for it.

Valid point if we're looking at a decade ago. Though post-Ukraine invasion they do seem to have really gotten engaged in making sure everything is ship shape in the nuclear force. As I say, even if a small number of them actually work...thats not good.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Putin launching a nuke does mean that he won't be getting to enjoy his ill-gotten gains and the palaces he built with them.
And since there's a zero chance of anyone marching on Moscow ATM, it would be really stupid to use one.

But putin doing stupid things has been a thing... hmm

[HVC]

Dying men have different priorities.

Still don't think he'd do it.

[Tonitrus]

Nothing has changed from the early 1960s. The one that convinces the other that he is crazy enough to actually go through with Nuclear strikes wins. Currently, in the West, only France looks crazy enough and Russia has the initiative vs the USA.

I think there is less reason to think the Russians pose a credible nuclear threat now than say the Cuban missile crises.

Not sure I'd agree there.
The Soviets had something to live for. They had their utopian ideology. They thought history was on their side.

Putin on the other hand... Fascism is narcissistic by nature. Quite an air of nihilism about the regime and a definite air of if I can't have it nobody can. The sheer weakness of the regime too and the fear of losing it all if their pride is hurt...

Mostly agree here.  Putin's system is such that once he started this war...he cannot  cannot "lose" while still alive/in power, or his credibility and legacy (with all his bluster about history, I think he must care about that a fair bit) is shot, and his position/life are in jeopardy.

In his mind, he probably thinks he can die naturally at near any time (at his age, would be logical to think that), and whatever happens happens...but he set things up, with the formal annexations of territory, that any likely/credible successor will need to carry on the fight.

And, of course, as with all dictators, he cannot safely retire either...unless he wants to spend the rest of his life as a concubine in the Forbidden City.

[The Brain]

Does a dud nuke still act as a improvised dirty bomb?

Depends on how dud, but not in a very dangerous way.

[crazy canuck]

Does a dud nuke still act as a improvised dirty bomb?

I guess the question there is whether the dud is the bomb itself or the missiles.

Nothing has changed from the early 1960s. The one that convinces the other that he is crazy enough to actually go through with Nuclear strikes wins. Currently, in the West, only France looks crazy enough and Russia has the initiative vs the USA.

I think there is less reason to think the Russians pose a credible nuclear threat now than say the Cuban missile crises.

Not sure I'd agree there.
The Soviets had something to live for. They had their utopian ideology. They thought history was on their side.

Putin on the other hand... Fascism is narcissistic by nature. Quite an air of nihilism about the regime and a definite air of if I can't have it nobody can. The sheer weakness of the regime too and the fear of losing it all if their pride is hurt...

You misunderstand my point.  In the 60s the Soviets were more likely to have nukes that actually worked.

Even factoring that in, I do believe Russia still has the power to trigger the end of the world. Even half their nukes being duds would suck. Hell. Even a handful working considering the current state of the planet....

Nothing has changed from the early 1960s. The one that convinces the other that he is crazy enough to actually go through with Nuclear strikes wins. Currently, in the West, only France looks crazy enough and Russia has the initiative vs the USA.

I think there is less reason to think the Russians pose a credible nuclear threat now than say the Cuban missile crises.

I agree. I don't know how they could have kept their 2nd strike capacity at a credible threat level considering how corrupt Russian society is & how the further you get from Moscow gaze the more opportunity there is for it.

Valid point if we're looking at a decade ago. Though post-Ukraine invasion they do seem to have really gotten engaged in making sure everything is ship shape in the nuclear force.

What are you basing that conclusion on?

[Tonitrus]

Valid point if we're looking at a decade ago. Though post-Ukraine invasion they do seem to have really gotten engaged in making sure everything is ship shape in the nuclear force. As I say, even if a small number of them actually work...thats not good.

Russia has been working on upgrading/modernizing their nuclear force well before the Ukraine invasion. 

But also their conventional force as well...and the expectations for it is the only one of the two that has been testing...and that modernization has been found to be severely lacking.

But your point is still sound.  Even if their nuclear force is only fractionally effective, it is still mortally dangerous.  Their ready-to-launch stockpile is about 1700 warheads.  Even if only 5% work, that is deadly enough.   

[crazy canuck]

Valid point if we're looking at a decade ago. Though post-Ukraine invasion they do seem to have really gotten engaged in making sure everything is ship shape in the nuclear force. As I say, even if a small number of them actually work...thats not good.

Russia has been working on upgrading/modernizing their nuclear force well before the Ukraine invasion. 

But also their conventional force as well...and the expectations for it is the only one of the two that has been testing...and that modernization has been found to be severely lacking.

But your point is still sound.  Even if their nuclear force is only fractionally effective, it is still mortally dangerous.  Their ready-to-launch stockpile is about 1700 warheads.  Even if only 5% work, that is deadly enough.   

His point was that everything is ship shape, which of course is very different from saying 5% of what they have might work.

As you say, that is still potentially dangerous to the world. Assuming they can find and actually use the 5% that might work.

[Josquius]

Valid point if we're looking at a decade ago. Though post-Ukraine invasion they do seem to have really gotten engaged in making sure everything is ship shape in the nuclear force. As I say, even if a small number of them actually work...thats not good.

Russia has been working on upgrading/modernizing their nuclear force well before the Ukraine invasion. 

But also their conventional force as well...and the expectations for it is the only one of the two that has been testing...and that modernization has been found to be severely lacking.

But your point is still sound.  Even if their nuclear force is only fractionally effective, it is still mortally dangerous.  Their ready-to-launch stockpile is about 1700 warheads.  Even if only 5% work, that is deadly enough.   

His point was that everything is ship shape, which of course is very different from saying 5% of what they have might work.

As you say, that is still potentially dangerous to the world. Assuming they can find and actually use the 5% that might work.

No. I didn't say that at all. I said after the failures of ukraine they're giving more attention to trying to reach this.

What are you basing that conclusion on?

Not working before Ukraine - well look at all the corruption in the regular army. Stands to reason it'd be similar in the nuclear force and the government would recognise this once it's exposed with the army.
I recall reading some articles about looking at the nuclear force lately.

[grumbler]

All of this depends on the guys actually ordered to launch a nuclear strike being willing to murder their own kids on Putin's say-so.  I'm not 100% convinced that that is the case.