Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

My worry with Putin popping off and the inevitable power struggle is what happens to the nukes.
It doesn't seem too hard to believe some could fall to an absolute psycho who thinks firing off a few/handing them over to other willing crazies is a good idea.

[Tamas]

My worry with Putin popping off and the inevitable power struggle is what happens to the nukes.
It doesn't seem too hard to believe some could fall to an absolute psycho who thinks firing off a few/handing them over to other willing crazies is a good idea.

Yes, that's the only reason to not wish for a complete breakup of the Russian Empire. Bunch of medieval warlords with hundreds of nukes each sounds like a terrible idea.

[The Brain]

Hopefully many nukes are in pretty poor shape.

[Grey Fox]

https://x.com/feher_junior/status/1793389136503546339?s=46&t=k-p3IFGuNJl6IL9qeh-mQA

Michael McCaul: -"Congress gave them [Ukraine] the equipment, but it did not put any restrictions on the use of those weapons. It is Jake Sullivan and your administration that have put restrictions on them,"

[The Minsky Moment]

There is more clarity now on the US prohibition on using arms to attack within Russia.

If the quote JR linked was accurate, it did not reflect the policy of the US.  Here is an article describing the debate within the Biden administration to remove the prohibition.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/us/politics/white-house-ukraine-weapons-russia.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uE0.vFpt.wkH5BNkBfTQA&smid=url-share

Blinken's position -- that the US would not either ban or encourage the use of American armaments for hitting the Russian territory -- was expressed in an official joint press conference and transcript has since been posted to the State Department website.  By definition, it is the policy of the US, unless countermanded by the President.  And the President has made no statement on the matter.  Some back channel communication from Jake Sullivan - which may or may not exist and whose content is unknown - is not policy, and the Ukrainians are free to consider it as they wish.  Sullivan's position is important and influential, but at the end of the day he is a glorified staffer with a purely advisory role.

If sometime today, Ukrainian armed forces used US equipment to strike targets in Russia, they would not be in violation of any official US policy and if questioned, could point to Blinken's official statement as authorization. 

I can't comment on how the NYT reports, but I will say that nothing in the article contradicts what I've said above.

[The Minsky Moment]

So there is no misunderstanding, personally I do not agree with the Biden admin policy - I think it has been too cautious and has miscalibrated the different risks.  I think the administration was far too slow getting key weapons systems out the door and has been too cautious on use.

But I also believe these are hard and complicated decisions to make.  I'm aware that Biden and Sullivan have access to intelligence sources and information that I don't.  And that they are making and have to make judgments about the domestic political impact of different policies, where securing aid dollars depends on threading through the eye of the Congressional needle and where Putin's Bitch is waiting in the wings to take over.

It's always easier to play QB behind the monitor and keyboard than on the field.

[Tamas]

Estonia acuses Russia of creating a border incident after Russian border guards last night removed Estonian lighting buoys from the river on their border.

This and the pushbto redraw sea borders, all it takes is successful capture of a few villages for the Russians to get in your face again. This is not going to end until they are defeated decisively

It's lile Germany after WW1. Their empire collapsed but their own belief in their right to bully and dominate people has not. The tricky question is how to destroy them like the Germans without destroying human civilisation along with them.

[Legbiter]

Sweden's setting up further long-term assistance to Ukraine including material directly from industry. Every vatnik should have a Swedish artillery shell with his name on it.   

https://x.com/minna_alander/status/1793202883413860385

[Tamas]

Apparently Russia's Deputy Chief of the General Staff has been arrested today along with 3 more Russian generals on charges of bribery (which I have no doubt are true). Belarus' Chief of General Staff has been fired today on reaching maximum military age at 50-something.

Again, this does not strike me as things going well in Russia.

[Jacob]

Tamas - I don't know who you are watching, but a while ago I saw a gentleman claiming that the arrest of that one colonel protégé Shoigu's indicated the start of a full blown elite power struggle.

These recent arrests of General level staff seems to support that hypothesis.

[Syt]

I'm pretty sure that anyone in the upper echelons of Putin's regime and military could be arrested for corruption with plenty of justification. For it to happen you have to lose favor or be too obvious about it (the latter seems unlikely). However, taking someone down with charges of corruption has to be managed carefully lest they squeal and take down large chunks of a network with them.

[Grey Fox]

The FSB is going to make sure this time the Army doesn't stop their transition of power.

[Tamas]

Tamas - I don't know who you are watching, but a while ago I saw a gentleman claiming that the arrest of that one colonel protégé Shoigu's indicated the start of a full blown elite power struggle.

These recent arrests of General level staff seems to support that hypothesis.

Yeah it seems to be the obvious reading at this stage. The only "Russia-positive" reading of it I could imagine is that Shoigu was so powerful he defended a whole swat of corrupt officers from Putin's wrath and now with him moved to this powerless position, the forces of anti-corruption can move in on them. Which of course sound ludicrous based on everything we know about how Russia works.

Otherwise it must be what Grey Fox wrote - the KGB doesn't want to make the mistake of their last attempt to grab power. I guess they might have Erdogan's example in mind: you can neuter the army if you try.

This Russian guy I follow also mentioned that yesterday while the above arrests and Belorussian firing was going on Putin made an announced visit in Belarus. So, for all we know, the Army was already plotting, perhaps in cooperation with their Belarus comrades and Putin is trying to prevent another mutiny.

[crazy canuck]

The other way to read it, as reported in the NYTimes, is that Putin is now secure enough to put being seen to crack down on corruption above loyalty.

[Legbiter]

Apparently Russia's Deputy Chief of the General Staff has been arrested today along with 3 more Russian generals on charges of bribery (which I have no doubt are true). Belarus' Chief of General Staff has been fired today on reaching maximum military age at 50-something.

Again, this does not strike me as things going well in Russia.

Could also just be routine lawn care in an autocratic regime. Putin has slightly shuffled his inner circle around and brought in a technocrat to increase efficiency in the MoD. New guy has to bring in his own trusted underlings if he wants to get anything done.