The EU thread

[Zanza]

BEV cars will be both cheaper than ICE cars and have very long range by 2035, so I doubt a ban will be meaningful as ICE cars will just not be attractive anymore.

The Euro 7 emission standard in 2025 is much more relevant for shaping the market. That makes small ICE cars prohibitively expensive.

[Tamas]

BEV cars will be both cheaper than ICE cars and have very long range by 2035, so I doubt a ban will be meaningful as ICE cars will just not be attractive anymore.

The Euro 7 emission standard in 2025 is much more relevant for shaping the market. That makes small ICE cars prohibitively expensive.

The plebs can just ride the bus after that, then.

[Sheilbh]

From what I understand Canada's plan is similar and on a similar timeline:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehicles

Edit: I do think (from a British perspective) it gets to my concern around this and other plans like Labour's goal of a zero carbon grid by 2030 - it's all achievable but it's going to require a huge amount of infrastructure that we don't appear to be building. Electrifying everything is going to be a revolution in the scale of most electricity grids for most countries and I don't think many are doing it.

[Zanza]

The plebs can just ride the bus after that, then.

Looks like it. There is a visible trend already that small car lines with base prices up to 20k Euro are discontinued with all carmakers in the EU, e.g. Smart, VW up!, Opel Karl, Fiat 500, Ford Fiesta etc. That's because of Euro 7 in 2025. Either cheap BEV replace them, probably imported from China, or larger, more expensive ICE cars. The reason is that Euro 7, as that is similarly expensive to build in a V12 Ferrari as it is in a Fiat 500.

And that's in two years, not twelve.

[Zoupa]

9%, that's the EU share of CO2 emissions. Shutting down all activity and killing everyone alive on the continent is not going to have a significant effect.

God I hate this argument. Not only is it reductive and ignorant, it's also wrong.

[Josquius]

EVs being more expensive than ICE cars is economics 101.
As the share of the market shifts so too do these prices. It costs a lot less per unit if you make more, and vice versa.
EVs will hit the tipping point where they have the balance before too long.

Worth looking at for instance how much the price of renewable energy has dropped this past decade or two.

The plebs can just ride the bus after that, then.

Looks like it. There is a visible trend already that small car lines with base prices up to 20k Euro are discontinued with all carmakers in the EU, e.g. Smart, VW up!, Opel Karl, Fiat 500, Ford Fiesta etc. That's because of Euro 7 in 2025. Either cheap BEV replace them, probably imported from China, or larger, more expensive ICE cars. The reason is that Euro 7, as that is similarly expensive to build in a V12 Ferrari as it is in a Fiat 500.

And that's in two years, not twelve.

Sounds good on the surface. We really do need to move backwards a world where cars are something you choose to spend your money on and not an absolute necessity for life.

We really need a system of subsidies in place for those in rural areas however and hefty investment in public transport. Which needs to have started years ago if 25 were a cut off point.

[Syt]

The plebs can just ride the bus after that, then.

Looks like it. There is a visible trend already that small car lines with base prices up to 20k Euro are discontinued with all carmakers in the EU, e.g. Smart, VW up!, Opel Karl, Fiat 500, Ford Fiesta etc. That's because of Euro 7 in 2025. Either cheap BEV replace them, probably imported from China, or larger, more expensive ICE cars. The reason is that Euro 7, as that is similarly expensive to build in a V12 Ferrari as it is in a Fiat 500.

And that's in two years, not twelve.

I had to look up the VW up! and Opel Karl as I don't think I'd heard of them. I'm really out of tune with cars these days.

[The Larch]

The plebs can just ride the bus after that, then.

Looks like it. There is a visible trend already that small car lines with base prices up to 20k Euro are discontinued with all carmakers in the EU, e.g. Smart, VW up!, Opel Karl, Fiat 500, Ford Fiesta etc. That's because of Euro 7 in 2025. Either cheap BEV replace them, probably imported from China, or larger, more expensive ICE cars. The reason is that Euro 7, as that is similarly expensive to build in a V12 Ferrari as it is in a Fiat 500.

And that's in two years, not twelve.

I had to look up the VW up! and Opel Karl as I don't think I'd heard of them. I'm really out of tune with cars these days.

I did not recognize half the models either, don't worry.  If I'm not mistaken they're all A-segment cars, the smaller ones in the market, so it's a fairly specialized segment. I'd guess that most cars in Europe are at least B-segment (your VW Polo, Opel Corsa, Toyota Yaris and the like), or even C-segment (VW Golf, Audi A3, Ford Focus, etc.).

One doubt regarding ICE vehicles that I have is related to those vehicles besides cars. Jos said that trucks are not affected until 2050. What about other kinds of, so to speak, industrial vehicles? Tractors, forklifts, construction machinery... how are those covered?

[Grey Fox]

One doubt regarding ICE vehicles that I have is related to those vehicles besides cars. Jos said that trucks are not affected until 2050. What about other kinds of, so to speak, industrial vehicles? Tractors, forklifts, construction machinery... how are those covered?

I think that's a really important concern because while EVs have awesome instant torque. Currently the available vehicles for hauling & towing are heavy vehicles that need recharging in less than an hour.

[Tamas]

One doubt regarding ICE vehicles that I have is related to those vehicles besides cars. Jos said that trucks are not affected until 2050. What about other kinds of, so to speak, industrial vehicles? Tractors, forklifts, construction machinery... how are those covered?

I think that's a really important concern because while EVs have awesome instant torque. Currently the available vehicles for hauling & towing are heavy vehicles that need recharging in less than an hour.

Pssst, do not overcomplicate the picture here. The narrative is that the expensive EV you buy is also your implied indulgence paper, since by engaging in upper middle class consumerism, you have done your bit for the planet.

[Zanza]

I did not recognize half the models either, don't worry.  If I'm not mistaken they're all A-segment cars, the smaller ones in the market, so it's a fairly specialized segment. I'd guess that most cars in Europe are at least B-segment (your VW Polo, Opel Corsa, Toyota Yaris and the like), or even C-segment (VW Golf, Audi A3, Ford Focus, etc.).

A and B segment is a bit more than a quarter of the market, typically the cheaper end.

What about other kinds of, so to speak, industrial vehicles? Tractors, forklifts, construction machinery... how are those covered?

The amount of these vehicles is absolutely miniscule compared to passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. They could electrify them using e-fuels, hydrogen etc.

[The Larch]

A and B segment is a bit more than a quarter of the market, typically the cheaper end.

How's the market split? I'd assume that B and C segment would be the most of it.

[Barrister]

One doubt regarding ICE vehicles that I have is related to those vehicles besides cars. Jos said that trucks are not affected until 2050. What about other kinds of, so to speak, industrial vehicles? Tractors, forklifts, construction machinery... how are those covered?

I just want to point out that forklifts are already electric, at least for the most part.  They're a perfect situation for it - typically in a factory or warehouse with very easy access to electricity, plus don't need to travel very far.

Something like a tractor though is the opposite - out in a field, not with easy access to electricity, may have to travel a pretty fair distance.

[Josquius]

In the UK at least tractors already have special rules what with red diesel and all.

[Zanza]

A and B segment is a bit more than a quarter of the market, typically the cheaper end.

How's the market split? I'd assume that B and C segment would be the most of it.

https://www.acea.auto/figure/new-passenger-cars-by-segment-in-eu/