The EU thread

[The Larch]

Apparently Eva Kaili's husband has admitted to a judge that the payments came from Qatar and Morocco. The whole thing seems to have been masterminded by a former Italian MEP.

[Zanza]

Croatia joined the Euro and Schengen now. 

A shame about Schengen for Romania and Bulgaria though.

[Syt]

[The Larch]

Brexit seems to have achieved something at least, sapping the desire to leave the EU in every other country.

Support for leaving EU has fallen significantly across bloc since Brexit
People less likely to vote leave in every EU member state for which data was available than in 2016-17, survey finds

Support for leaving the EU has dropped significantly, and sometimes dramatically, in member states across the bloc in the wake of the UK's Brexit referendum, according to data from a major pan-European survey.

The European Social Survey (ESS), led by City, University of London and conducted in 30 European nations every two years since 2001, found respondents were less likely to vote leave in every EU member state for which data was available.

The largest decline in leave support was in Finland, where 28.6% of respondents who declared which way they would vote in a Brexit-style referendum answered leave in 2016-2017, but only 15.4% did in 2020-2022 – a fall of 13.2 percentage points.

Similarly stark falls between 2016 and 2022 were recorded in the Netherlands (from 23% to 13.5%), Portugal (15.7% to 6.6%), Austria (26% to 16.1%) and France (24.3% to 16%), with smaller but still statistically significant falls in Hungary (16% to 10.2%), Spain (9.3% to 4.7%) Sweden (23.9% to 19.3%), and Germany (13.6% to 11%).

Support for leave in the survey's most recent round was highest in the Czech Republic (29.2%), Italy (20.1%) and Sweden (19.3%), but even in those countries it had declined by 4.5 percentage points, 9.1 points and 4.6 points respectively since 2016-2017, the survey showed. Leave was least popular in Spain (4.7%).

The period covers Britain's long and fraught negotiations to leave the EU, but also the country's ensuing political turmoil – five prime ministers in six years – and its current social and economic woes, all of which have been heavily reported on the continent and are widely interpreted as being caused at least partly by Brexit.

They also coincide with the Covid pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which experts suggest have prompted many EU citizens to view membership more favourably, and decisions by many anti-EU parties, including in France and Italy, to abandon Frexit or Italexit policies in favour of reforming the EU from within.

Mathieu Gallard, research director of the leading French polling firm Ipsos, which regularly conducts surveys of European opinion, said the ESS numbers reflected a "veritable collapse" in support for leaving the EU in several countries.

Gallard said the fall in support for a leave vote most likely stemmed from "a cumulative effect combining the EU's attitude towards the various crises of recent years, the radical right's moderation on the subject [of leaving the EU], and the many vicissitudes of Brexit".

The ESS survey also found that respondents' emotional attachment to Europe had increased between 2016 and 2022 in most member states. Asked to rate how attached they felt to the bloc on a scale of zero to 10, 54.9% of Portuguese respondents gave responses between seven and 10 in 2020-2022, against 41.5% in 2016-2017.

Strong emotional attachment to Europe in Finland rose to 58.7% from 46% over the period, while in Hungary – engaged in an increasingly bitter rule-of-law dispute with Brussels – it increased from 60% to 70.3%. In Italy the corresponding figures were 37.2% and 44.3%, and in France 44% and 48.8%. Germany and Spain were stable.

A Pew Research Center survey of 10 EU member states conducted in spring last year also found large majorities in nearly every country surveyed held a broadly favourable opinion of the bloc, with a median of 72% viewing it in a favourable light compared with 26% who had a broadly unfavourable opinion.

The ESS data also showed that support for staying in the EU – again excluding those who said they could not or would not vote, did not know which way they would vote, or would not cast a complete or valid ballot – increased in every member state for which comparable data was available, with remain support in 2020-2022 ranging from a low of 70.8% in the Czech Republic to a high of 95.3% in Spain.

The ESS survey is normally conducted through face-to-face interviews, but due to the Covid-19 pandemic, respondents in six countries – including Austria, Germany, Poland, Sweden and Spain – were asked to complete questionnaires themselves in 2020-2022.

In those countries, the percentage of respondents who said they would not cast a vote was generally higher. Tim Hanson, a senior ESS research fellow, said this was most likely because the questionnaire presented them with that option, whereas interviewers asked people to choose between leave and remain.

The overall effect was to depress the "remain" vote in the "self-complete" countries rather than to increase the "leave" vote, Hanson said. Nonetheless, the difference in survey method meant excluding "no votes" provided a more reliable comparison between the two survey rounds.

[Sheilbh]

Brexit seems to have achieved something at least, sapping the desire to leave the EU in every other country.

I think that's part of it for sure and it couldn't have been done in a less adept way.

I think the other part is that far and populist right parties don't think they need to leave the EU to achieve their aims and can actually possibly use the EU to help deliver them. I think it's a story of Brexit as chaotic disaster and Orban as precedent.

[The Larch]

For the train lovers:



Sheilbh, don't book your summer holidays based on this, it is only a pilot thing and will still take several years for these routes to become reality. 

[Sheilbh]

Of course I think the first bit of HS2 that was cancelled was the very short line that would connect it with HS1 meaning the possibility of a single train from Manchester (or, once upon a time, Leeds) to Paris or Brussels is gone

[Josquius]

Nice to see this movement for better cross border trains taking off. It is a major issue in Europe.

Of course I think the first bit of HS2 that was cancelled was the very short line that would connect it with HS1 meaning the possibility of a single train from Manchester (or, once upon a time, Leeds) to Paris or Brussels is gone

Honestly I don't see such a big deal with this. In Japan you can't take a shinkansen direct from Osaka to Sendai, you need to change in Tokyo. And in a properly working rail system changing train isn't a big deal.
The added need for passport control in every station the HS1 connecting HS2 goes to would have been painful.

Besides, the way the lines are setup couldn't you still take a train from Manchester into St Pancras in theory? Glancing at a map the two lines don't seem to diverge so far north- the issue being of course capacity.

In terms of cost to benefits that HS1-HS2 link seemed to be just rule of cool over practicality.

[mongers]

Of course I think the first bit of HS2 that was cancelled was the very short line that would connect it with HS1 meaning the possibility of a single train from Manchester (or, once upon a time, Leeds) to Paris or Brussels is gone

Back to the Future, they probably had that in 1905?

Goes off in search of a Bradshores.

[Duque de Bragança]

For the train lovers:



Sheilbh, don't book your summer holidays based on this, it is only a pilot thing and will still take several years for these routes to become reality. 

London-Lille is already possible. Lille-Brussels-Amsterdam as well, or do they plan to duplicate the existing high-speed line?

10 years ago, a direct Frankfurt-London link was said to be just a matter of time, not long-term. 

For the Iberian Peninsula, it's minimalist. No Douro Valley link for instance. A Corunha seems to be placed where Vigo is, at least closer. I am sure The Larch loves it. 
I see the Lisbon link, but not Sines (important deep-water harbour). Possibly for simplication purposes or just passenger trains.
Non mention of the necessary conversion to the international gauge.In theory, new lines are build in the new gauge.

Balkans get even worse treatement, despite having the international gauge, it's not great there.

[Duque de Bragança]

Nice to see this movement for better cross border trains taking off. It is a major issue in Europe.

Of course I think the first bit of HS2 that was cancelled was the very short line that would connect it with HS1 meaning the possibility of a single train from Manchester (or, once upon a time, Leeds) to Paris or Brussels is gone

Honestly I don't see such a big deal with this. In Japan you can't take a shinkansen direct from Osaka to Sendai, you need to change in Tokyo. And in a properly working rail system changing train isn't a big deal.
The added need for passport control in every station the HS1 connecting HS2 goes to would have been painful.

Besides, the way the lines are setup couldn't you still take a train from Manchester into St Pancras in theory? Glancing at a map the two lines don't seem to diverge so far north- the issue being of course capacity.

In terms of cost to benefits that HS1-HS2 link seemed to be just rule of cool over practicality.

That kind of  exists in France and other countries you know. To get direct trains from London to Marseille (in theory) or in practical terms from London to ski resorts during winter.
I am not sure if the Frankfurt-Marseille TGV is still running. It ran for a few years at least.

PS: checked it, not anymore. Have to change trains in Karlsruhe. Not that bad, but still a transfer.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGV_Interconnexion_Est

It's really practical, think of the people living outside of the capital city centres, for once. 

As for invoking the Japanese example and then using the passports as an excuse, make up your mind. Japan has passport issue to deal with, so it's not a good example, in this case.

[Josquius]

Nice to see this movement for better cross border trains taking off. It is a major issue in Europe.

Of course I think the first bit of HS2 that was cancelled was the very short line that would connect it with HS1 meaning the possibility of a single train from Manchester (or, once upon a time, Leeds) to Paris or Brussels is gone

Honestly I don't see such a big deal with this. In Japan you can't take a shinkansen direct from Osaka to Sendai, you need to change in Tokyo. And in a properly working rail system changing train isn't a big deal.
The added need for passport control in every station the HS1 connecting HS2 goes to would have been painful.

Besides, the way the lines are setup couldn't you still take a train from Manchester into St Pancras in theory? Glancing at a map the two lines don't seem to diverge so far north- the issue being of course capacity.

In terms of cost to benefits that HS1-HS2 link seemed to be just rule of cool over practicality.

 

That kind of by-passing link exists in France you know. To get direct trains from London to Marseille (or ski resorts in the winter).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGV_Interconnexion_Est

It's really practical, think of the people living outside of the capital city centres, for once. 

This is a link through fields north of Paris to totally bypass it.
The HS1-HS2 link was to connect  the lines of two London terminus stations right next to each other - finding paths/building new lines that don't have to go into London would be the sensible way to setup a Manchester to Paris link if/when one is needed.

[Sheilbh]

Besides, the way the lines are setup couldn't you still take a train from Manchester into St Pancras in theory? Glancing at a map the two lines don't seem to diverge so far north- the issue being of course capacity.

I don't think so. King's Cross-St Pancras is everywhere north-east of London; Euston is everywhere to the north-west (including HS2).

Get your point but....

Nice to see this movement for better cross border trains taking off. It is a major issue in Europe.

Yes.

A lot of the work that would make life a lot easier and have a bigger impact is probably in things like timetables and some form of open market for train tickets so you can easily route across borders. That'll be slow - possibly a bit contentious - and very detailed work. But the issue with cross-border rail isn't just (or even mainly) the big lines between big cities but really simple things like the difficulty of planning or buying tickets in multiple countries/legs. I suspect that a lot of it will basically require some form of open data style reforms that are mandatory for European countries' rail systems - because that is a big issue is the extent to which they don't talk to each other

[Duque de Bragança]

This is a link through fields north of Paris to totally bypass it.
The HS1-HS2 link was to connect  the lines of two London terminus stations right next to each other - finding paths/building new lines that don't have to go into London would be the sensible way to setup a Manchester to Paris link if/when one is needed.

Not fields, it's in the suburbs. Stations in the middle of potato fields is a French "tradition" (seen in Germany and Spain)  that should be avoided.

High-speeds lines are connected, not by-passed, something the HS1 and current HS2 project miss completely. That direct link between HS1 & HS2 (plus the Heathrow service gone missing as well) might have been better than the current bypass in the East of Paris (remember Paris centre is much smaller than London) but it's there, and possibly extended in the future to provide more capacity to the South "European" high-speed line to Iberian, as in when the Pyrenean link in the Basque Country is ready, which will take some more time, to say the least.

[Duque de Bragança]

I don't think so. King's Cross-St Pancras is everywhere north-east of London; Euston is everywhere to the north-west (including HS2).

Get your point but....

So basically not very different from the East of Paris interconnexion, in theory. Josquius and  his precise knowledge of London, only surpassed by his knowledge of French. 

A lot of the work that would make life a lot easier and have a bigger impact is probably in things like timetables and some form of open market for train tickets so you can easily route across borders. That'll be slow - possibly a bit contentious - and very detailed work. But the issue with cross-border rail isn't just (or even mainly) the big lines between big cities but really simple things like the difficulty of planning or buying tickets in multiple countries/legs. I suspect that a lot of it will basically require some form of open data style reforms that are mandatory for European countries' rail systems - because that is a big issue is the extent to which they don't talk to each other

Disagree with that booking and timetable part. More railway services are needed. 20-30 years ago there were more. For instance, no direct link from Paris to Irun (Spanish basque country entry) due to a commercial war between SNCF and RENFE. One has to take a metro, el Topo (no Jodorowsky reference sorry) for two kilometres to cross the Franco-Spanish border, so transfers are more of than not impossible.

Most of the purely service is pretty much done. Bahn.de is pretty good at timetables. There is always . 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Cook_European_Timetable

Now booking for smaller lines might be more difficult but those are seldom on advance booking early. Generally cheap. One might have to go through an international European railway service of their national railway company however (I remember seeing there clerks using the Thomas Cook timetable trying to figure out the byzantine Spanish railway network). 
That's easily done in Paris, even before Internet. Some countries were a bit behind like Greece or Spain (surprise!) but things are better these days.

OTOH, RENFE, Deutsche Bahn and other railways having an office in Paris or big cities certainly helps.
Before that, WASTEELS travel agency (very well known to gästarbeiter and the like). Not sure if they still exist.