The EU thread

[Zanza]

@Zoupa: I agree that help should have been forthcoming more quickly, especially rhetorically and financially.  Not sure about military hardware. I get the impression that the state of our military and miltary-industrial complex is really so dire that they have a hard time delivering faster. But the government certainly slowed down what was already slow anyway and it is not clear why as eventually they still delivered anyway so the earlier slowdown seems nonsense.
That said, Scholz new policy is indeed a Zeitenwende for Germany, even if it may be slowed than people would like. But Scholz Was always a cautious pragmatist.

@Tamas: Some for sure (e.g. Lindner), some others certainly not (e.g. Habeck, Baerbock).

[Admiral Yi]

Have you guys seen any tangible stuff moving on the rearmament front?  This question is for all the Yuros, not just poor Zanza besieged in Stalingrad.  Budgets being passed?  I think you mentioned the order for F-35s.

On a related note, how do your militaries recruit, specifically do they play ads on TV and such?  I don't recall seeing any on French TV when I was there.  They're all over American TV, or at least used to be when I had a TV.

[Zanza]

Germany has published what it wants to spend the 100bn extra fund on. Besides small arms and equipment such as night vision goggles etc. the big ticket items are:

Air, about 44 bn:
- F-35 to continue being able to deliver American nukes stored in Germany
- Chinook CH47 transport helicopters
- Eurofighter Typhoon equipped for electronic combat
- Heron TP combat drones
- light support helicopters
- recon satellites
- marine recon aircraft

Command capability, about 20bn:
- More secure radio and data links, especially NATO inoperability
- Data centers
- Satellite communication

Land, about 16 bn:
- Main investment is additional PUMA IFVs

Sea, about 19 bn:
- More K130 corvettes
- More U212 submarine
- More F126 frigates

Right now, about 80 bn of the 100 bn are assigned to concrete procurement measures.

In Germany the military is doing recruitment ads in all media channels.

[Syt]

This question is for all the Yuros, not just poor Zanza besieged in Stalingrad.

I'd chime in, but I admit I only follow the top headlines these days and feel too mentally exhausted for deep dives into hot political topics at the moment.

[celedhring]

How is this gas consumption thing going to be calculated, anyway? I was just looking at advance figures for gas consumption in Spain and it's already down 13% year-on-year. Most surely on account of the high prices.

[The Brain]

Have you guys seen any tangible stuff moving on the rearmament front?  This question is for all the Yuros, not just poor Zanza besieged in Stalingrad.  Budgets being passed?  I think you mentioned the order for F-35s.

On a related note, how do your militaries recruit, specifically do they play ads on TV and such?  I don't recall seeing any on French TV when I was there.  They're all over American TV, or at least used to be when I had a TV.

I don't know much detail, but Sweden is now aiming for a military budget of 2% of GDP, which is a significant increase.

There are ads I think, but I can't remember seeing any recently.

Worth mentioning that conscription, which was completely paused in 2010, was activated again in 2018 in some fashion.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Germany has published what it wants to spend the 100bn extra fund on. Besides small arms and equipment such as night vision goggles etc. the big ticket items are:

Air, about 44 bn:
- F-35 to continue being able to deliver American nukes stored in Germany
- Chinook CH47 transport helicopters
- Eurofighter Typhoon equipped for electronic combat
- Heron TP combat drones
- light support helicopters
- recon satellites
- marine recon aircraft

Command capability, about 20bn:
- More secure radio and data links, especially NATO inoperability
- Data centers
- Satellite communication

Land, about 16 bn:
- Main investment is additional PUMA IFVs

Sea, about 19 bn:
- More K130 corvettes
- More U212 submarine
- More F126 frigates

Right now, about 80 bn of the 100 bn are assigned to concrete procurement measures.

In Germany the military is doing recruitment ads in all media channels.

Might be handy if Germany reworked its procurement procedures a bit to ensure it doesn't get stuck in court for the next two decades.

[Zanza]

My understanding is that the slowness of military procurement in Germany is caused by a) time consuming public procurement processes that take ages until awarding and b) over-engineered products that take much longer to be designed and manufactured than planned.

I am not aware that courts play a significant role.

PS: Parliament passed a "Procurement Acceleration Law" for the Bundeswehr recently

[Duque de Bragança]

How long would it take to get a pipeline through France to pass along that sweet sweet North African gas?

Years indeed but n ot that critical, France has already 3 LNG ports. Norway is ahead of Russia for gas exportation to France by the way. Algeria already sends some LNG through the southern LNG port of Fos-sur-Mer.
A further terminal is planned in Le Havre.

I was thinking more sending the gas to Germany. Though I guess Germany could use Frances infrastructure already. Start sending the gas east rather then west. At least eventually. 

A map I posted earlier shows Germany linked to Dutch and French ports, but not necessarily in a helpful order (entry and exit).
As a matter of fact, the Obergailbach interconnexion point (Mosel border with Germany) does not receive any Russian gas now.

Here is another one:



Germany might have as well to change its stance on "odourised" gas. 

[crazy canuck]

No attack through the Ardennes?

[Duque de Bragança]

No attack through the Ardennes?

No gas, no attack. 

[Duque de Bragança]

Latest figure of possible gas tranfer between France and Germany:

5% (maximum) of the French consumption

https://www.lemonde.fr/international/live/2022/07/27/guerre-en-ukraine-en-direct-les-europeens-sont-ils-prets-a-se-passer-du-gaz-russe-posez-vos-questions-a-notre-journaliste_6136273_3210.html

Le Monde quoting government sources

La France est en capacité d'envoyer 5 % mde sa consommation de gaz en Allemagne

La France serait en capacité (sic) d'envoyer au maximum l'équivalent de 5 % de sa consommation de gaz en Allemagne en hiver, si cette dernière connaissait une pénurie de gaz, a appris l'agence Reuters mercredi auprès du cabinet de la ministre de la transition énergétique, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.

Conditional and newspeakish en capacité  so careful

[crazy canuck]

No attack through the Ardennes?

No gas, no attack. 

 

[Sheilbh]

This is not EU specific but more a Euro point stolen from Leo Carella.

Before the Swedish election, he noted that there's not the same age polarisation for the radical right as we see in the UK and US - so "nostalgia" based explanations (which I don't find terribly convincing there) really don't work. Instead in Sweden you see an upside-down U with the lowest support among the elderly and the young:


And this isn't just a Swedish thing. The same pattern of lower support among the young and the elderly and strongest support amont peak working age people is also present in France, Spain, Italy, Germany and the Netherlands. I believe it's similar in some other Western European countries too (it'd be interesting to know about Eastern Europe).

But I was wondering if anyone had any theories? It's not "nostalgia" as is used by some to explain age-polarisation in the UK and US. I always thought the lower elderly support for the radical right in Europe was possibly linked to memories of fascism/occupation with the UK and the US having something of an "unoccupied WW2 victor" experience - but that doesn't explain the young. Maybe it's because continenta Europe has more generous state provision for young people - so young people and the elderly don't support a disruptive, radical right but peak working age voters do (but then that makes the UK and US even more interesting/outliers)?

[The Brain]

In Sweden the Social Democrats sit on a lot of the old votes, people who remember a time when the Soc Dems were THE party in Sweden, so you're not gonna get really big AND be an old-folks party.