The EU thread

[Zanza]

I don't really think Germany could even just snatch up gas that happens to be transiting the country bound for other locations. Those flows are usually based on legally binding, long-term contracts signed by various multinational corporations. I would be shocked if a modern OECD country like Germany can even within its own laws, just legally steal a bunch of gas that under the contractual laws of the country itself do not belong to the State. At least not without some sort of special legislation or something--and it would undermine confidence in the entire German legal and business system for a generation.

Not as long as we adhere to the Common Market laws of the EU. But it was questioned whether as part of our common EU decision to cut Russian gas imports,Germany should expect solidarity from the rest of the EU. I think yes to a degree. But if we cannot expect solidarity, adherence to other EU principles surely is also in question.

By the way, we have already nationalized several gas companies (Gazprom Germania, Uniper) in the last weeks which would have been insolvent otherwise, which would have voided their delivery obligations anyway.

[Duque de Bragança]

Spain and Portugal are not linked to the Eurasian European gas pipelines (several projects to link them were cancelled as mentioned by Sheilbh) so Germany can pretty much forget it regarding Iberia.
They also have their LNG-ready ports, in Vasco da Gama's city for instance.

The articles I was seeing suggested Spain would more likely be able to divert some gas to Italy, with which I believe it has transit links, as Italy is also in a bad way right now due to Russian supply issues.

Italy is like, Iberia, linked to North Africa for gas (2 pipelines Greenstream and Transmediterranean) so that gives more options. As to divert gas to Italy, not directly since there are not pipelines.
Iberia has Medgas and Maghreb Europe (through Morocco so potential trouble), both from Algeria.

As to Italy being in a bad place, yes (as bad as Germany? IMO no). The once planned Galsi, through Sardinia, was abandonned following pressure from, guess whom, Gazprom pressure






Eastmed pipeline (Italy-gas fields around Cyprus) was scheduled for 2025.

The latter maps show the working or in progress pipelines.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The Economist had a good article this week

I posted that in the ukraine war thread so it's there should people without access want to read it

[Zanza]

I mean the Greens were heavily against nuclear power and fracking, is why I bring them up. It is true they did not control the government, but the government did make a choice to accept their narratives and ideas. The government can actually help shape public perceptions, as far as I can tell no one in a position of responsibility in Germany even sought to lobby for or defend nuclear or fracking, which made it pretty easy for public opinion to turn so far against both. Given the tight business or personal ties between many leading Germans and Russia, perhaps it is unsurprising none felt the need to push back against narratives that ultimately benefitted the pro-Russia, pro-gas import desire.

The Greens had very little personal connections to Russia, unlike Conservatives and especially Social Democrats.

Nuclear exit was of course driven by Greens, but the current phase out plan was enacted by Conservatives, who were not willing to fight for their convictions.

I honestly can't remember a big discussion on fracking. There were some reports of bad effects in the American Midwest in the late 2010s and then it was banned. Maybe the Greens played a role there, but not as prominent as in nuclear exit. Wasn't a bid debate in Germany. 

However, the Greens were at the forefront to push for more new renewables, better energy conservation, less fossil fuels etc. You could make up a hypothetical were Germany would by now be mich further down the road towards energy independence through renewables had the Greens been in power. 

[Zoupa]

I don't really think Germany could even just snatch up gas that happens to be transiting the country bound for other locations. Those flows are usually based on legally binding, long-term contracts signed by various multinational corporations. I would be shocked if a modern OECD country like Germany can even within its own laws, just legally steal a bunch of gas that under the contractual laws of the country itself do not belong to the State. At least not without some sort of special legislation or something--and it would undermine confidence in the entire German legal and business system for a generation.

Not as long as we adhere to the Common Market laws of the EU. But it was questioned whether as part of our common EU decision to cut Russian gas imports,Germany should expect solidarity from the rest of the EU. I think yes to a degree. But if we cannot expect solidarity, adherence to other EU principles surely is also in question.

Surely.

Love the veiled blackmail. Fun.

[Zanza]

You were questioning European solidarity, not me.

[Zoupa]

The condescension certainly doesn't help your case, fyi.

Zoupa, I love you dearly but that's clearly a shared European trait - not something unique to Zanza and the Germans 

Let's just say condescension from Germans is especially irritating for other Europeans... I wonder why 🤔

[Zanza]

Let's just say condescension from Germans is especially irritating for other Europeans... I wonder why 🤔

Pretty sure we share that with the French. 

[Zoupa]

The difference is we've been guided by our mission civilisatrice for a millennium, so we're allowed.

[Zanza]

I think they should, but it is entirely reasonable for people in Spain and such to do so with a lot of resentment towards Germany, who bears the vast majority of blame for Putin's invasion of Ukraine and threat to peace in Europe and who were more than happy to lecture their friends when they were in need during the Euro crisis.

That's silly. The vast majority of the blame for Putin's invasion of Ukraine should be assigned to Putin and his elites, maybe also common Russians. Not to Germany or any other factor.

Germany (and France) being appeasing after the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 surely did not help dissuade him. But it is hardly the cause for Putin's view of history and the world nor for centuries of Russian imperialism, both of which drive the current Russian war.

[Tamas]

The difference is we've been guided by our mission civilisatrice for a millennium, so we're allowed.

 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The difference is we've been guided by our mission civilisatrice for a millennium, so we're allowed.

yeah, but no.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I think German Greens are generally great (but wrong on nuclear)

Another reason Italy is going to be less exposed is partly simply that Eni exists and continues to have close links to the state, but also that (partly because of Eni) Italy has already done deals with Gulf countries for LNG. They have previously built the relationships that has, from what I've read, allowed them to diversify their supply pretty quickly.

[Zoupa]

I think they should, but it is entirely reasonable for people in Spain and such to do so with a lot of resentment towards Germany, who bears the vast majority of blame for Putin's invasion of Ukraine and threat to peace in Europe and who were more than happy to lecture their friends when they were in need during the Euro crisis.

That's silly. The vast majority of the blame for Putin's invasion of Ukraine should be assigned to Putin and his elites, maybe also common Russians. Not to Germany or any other factor.

Germany (and France) being appeasing after the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 surely did not help dissuade him. But it is hardly the cause for Putin's view of history and the world nor for centuries of Russian imperialism, both of which drive the current Russian war.

Maybe if Scholz & al. had been more diplomatic or sent heavy weapons earlier, the electorate of the different European nations would look more kindly on helping with LNG.

I don't think there's a lot of goodwill out there, and whatever technocratic or economic reasons the Germans trot out won't get traction. Public opinion matters.

[Zanza]

EU agrees plan to ration gas use over Russia supply fears
Despite most energy ministers backing the scheme the EU was forced to water down proposals

The EU has been forced to water down its plan to ration gas this winter in an attempt to avoid an energy crisis generated by further Russian cuts to supply.

Energy ministers from the 27 member states, except Hungary, backed a voluntary 15% reduction in gas usage over the winter, a target that could become mandatory if the Kremlin ordered a complete shutdown of gas to Europe.

[...]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/26/eu-agrees-plan-to-reduce-gas-use-over-russia-supply-fears


Thanks for the solidarity, European brethren!