Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

From psephologist:

Steve Fisher
@StephenDFisher
Projected House of Commons seats from the PNS (with changes from 2019 GE):
Con 253 (-112), Lab 291 (+88), LD 31 (+20), Others 75 (+4)
The Projected House of Commons takes into account differences in local and general election voting on recent occasions when the two kinds of election have been on the same day. It is a kind of a nowcast from the local elections.

I think the results in the South and Red Wall today have been a lot worse for the Tories - somehow waiting for the national counts has produced a different picture than extrapolating from a single ward in Sunderland. We should stop relying so much on Sunderland's ability to count quickly to shape our national commentary - but at least the position has improved for Labour there from recent years, as Stephen Bush put it:

That said, the local authority has in several important ways turned a corner: the children's services that were recently rated as "inadequate" are now rated "outstanding", the councillor convicted of abusing four children is now in prison and the former council leader who had been dogged by accusations of murder is now dead.

So there's been a lot going on in Sunderland which feels like a legitimate case of "local issues" mattering more than the national stuff

Separately, while I still think this is nonsense and have seen no evidence that it's cut through the Tories and right-wing press have managed to meme the police into investigating Keir Starmer's "beergate" alleged covid breach. Not sure if he'll get fined or not - I think it would be wrong if he was - but it's difficult given how he criticised Johnson over being investigated. If he is fined then I think he has to resign - which wouldn't be the worst thing. He's done lots of stuff that's helped turn the party round but isn't really connecting with the public...so a change wouldn't be the worst thing for Labour (probably)

[Josquius]

Nice if so. I've heard a lot locally about the council in Sunderland being particularly good. Also lowest council tax in the area.

But then Hartlepool council was also meant to be especially good and it didn't stop greater culture warry brexity issues coming into play there.

And yeah. Saw that on the Durham police stuff. Durham Council are increasingly an embarrassment. I already posted on their hq stuff and the museum game playing. Wonder if they had a hand.

[The Larch]

Sinn Féin set to be largest party in Northern Ireland assembly
Michelle O'Neill likely to be first minister after party tops first-preference votes with 29%

Sinn Féin is on course to be the biggest party at Stormont after a symbolic breakthrough for Irish nationalism in Northern Ireland's assembly election.

The party topped the first-preference vote with 29%, which will position its deputy leader, Michelle O'Neill, to become the region's first minister, the first nationalist to hold the position in a historic turnaround and a severe blow to unionism.

With transfer votes still being counted on Friday night, it was clear the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) had dramatically lost its pre-eminence by slumping to 21.3% in the first preference vote. "A disaster for the DUP," tweeted Tim Cairns, a former special adviser to the party.

The other big winner in Thursday's election was the centrist Alliance, which surged to 13.5%, putting it in third place and showing the growing influence of voters who shun nationalist and unionist labels.

An expected DUP boycott could delay and conceivably derail the formation of a new power-sharing executive unless Boris Johnson's government renegotiates the Northern Ireland protocol with the EU, as the DUP demands. That would put a question mark over O'Neill becoming first minister, but not alter the profound psychological impact of a Sinn Féin victory.

"This place was organised more than a century ago to ensure that a Michelle O'Neill would never occupy the position of first minister, so it's a great moment for equality," said Sinn Féin's leader, Mary Lou McDonald, amid ecstatic supporters in Belfast.

The result was seismic given that Northern Ireland was an entity created on the basis of a unionist majority, said Jon Tonge, a University of Liverpool politics professor and authority on the region. "A party that does not want Northern Ireland to exist and refuses to even use the term Northern Ireland will become its biggest. It will not trigger a border poll, but it is an incremental step on the long road to Irish unity."

Proportional representation in 18 five-member constituencies was used to elect 90 members of the assembly. Turnout was 63.6%, similar to the last assembly election in 2017. Sinn Féin appeared on course to exceed the 27 seats it won then, overtaking the DUP, which was set to lose several of its 28 seats, said Nicholas Whyte, a psephologist and expert on Northern Ireland elections.

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Alliance looked likely to double its previous total of eight seats, largely at the expense of the Ulster Unionist party (UUP), the moderate nationalist Social Democratic and Labour party (SDLP) and the Green party, which haemorrhaged support. Transfers will determine final seats, with counting expected to continue on Saturday.

Voters ranked the cost of living and health service as their chief concerns, but the campaign was dominated by unionist anger at the post-Brexit Northern Ireland protocol, which puts a trade border in the Irish Sea, and the contest between Sinn Féin and the DUP for the first minister post.

That squeezed the UUP and SDLP and let Alliance harvest the growing number of voters in the centre who express frustration at traditional Orange/Green tribalism.

Unionists sought comfort in the fact that overall support for unionist parties marginally outweighed support for nationalist parties. Opinion polls show solid support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK, but Sinn Féin hope to build momentum towards a referendum on Irish unity, a goal boosted by the party's surging popularity in the Republic of Ireland, where, under McDonald, it leads the opposition in the Dublin parliament.

"It's a great moment that says beyond a shadow of a doubt that life has changed in the North, that things have changed in Ireland and that we are only going forward, and we are never going back," said McDonald.

Many unionists blame the DUP for the protocol, which they fear weakens Northern Ireland's position in the UK, and some defected to a rightwing rival, the Traditional Unionist Voice. However, Jeffrey Donaldson, the MP and DUP leader, clawed back some support by casting his party as a bulwark against a Sinn Féin first minister.

Donaldson said he would not lead the DUP into the executive – which cannot be formed without his party – unless the protocol was replaced, putting pressure on Downing Street to amend the Brexit agreement to avert a prolonged crisis in Northern Ireland.

Naomi Long, Alliance's leader, urged the DUP to "stop creating instability and start doing government" and accept the will of the electorate.

Since 2007 there has been a DUP first minister and Sinn Féin deputy first minister. Both posts have equal power, but the more prestigious title has become a proxy test of strength. There have been calls to change the titles to co-first minister and to overhaul the Good Friday agreement-era power-sharing rules, which did not anticipate the rise of a centrist political force.

[Sheilbh]

Britain Elects' prediction range for tomorrow's local elections:

Worth coming back to this prediction and this pre-election Daily Mail graphic:


Tory losses are now at -482 and Labour on +264. Weirdly the Tories seem to have memed themselves into thinking it's a decent result, I think because the Red Wall areas that counted overnight were, for some reason, better for the Tories and a lot of their losses aren't directly to Labour. But I think that actually makes it worse for them - they're losing votes everywhere, to everyone.

Edit: Ooof - the Tories lost about 45% of the seats they were defending in Wales. In 2019 they won six constituencies from Labour in Wales and it wasn't entirely implausible that they'd end up being the biggest party there.

Edit: On the other hand a little disappointing that Lutfur Rahman has been elected as mayor of Tower Hamlets again. He was removed from that post and banned from standing in any elections for five years after an election court found him guilty of electoral fraud. Not sure if it's fraud but it sounds like him and his party are back to their old tricks with lots of reports of a lot of activists hanging around outside polling stations.

Perhaps as annoying is that, according to friends who live in the borough (I did when Rahman was last mayor), he was actually quite an effective mayor while the anti-fraud campaigner (and long-time Labour councillor) who replaced him has been disappointing.

[Sheilbh]

Sinn Fein have reached the point where the DUP can't overtake them - which means this will be the first time a nationalist party comes first and, if the DUP agree to nominate a Deputy First Minister, Sinn Fein will be able to nominate a First Minister for the first time.

This was predicted and is not a story of a surge in the nationalist but the fragmentation of unionism. Sinn Fein by the looks of it have only increased their vote by about 1% and the moderate nationalist SDLP lost 3% (there's also Aontu on about 1.5% which is basically a very Catholic, socially conservative party that split from Sinn Fein over abortion and gay marriage). So overall the nationalist vote hasn't changed since the last election.

But unionism has split more decisively. The DUP lost about 7% of the vote and it looks like at least 5% of that went to the far more hard-line TUV who will now have MLAs, I think for the first tie. I hoped that moderate unionism might rally a bit but that also didn't happen and the UUP are also down about 2%. Partly this might be because sectarian politics played their role - the DUP were polling worse than this during the campaign so it looks like unionists may have moved a bit to them to try and staunch the loss/avoid nationalists coming first.

The bigger shift in opinion has been the non-sectarian Alliance Party which has won 5% more of the vote and doubled their number of MLAs (Northern Ireland has single transferable vote - like the south). They'll now be the third largest party, having been fifth in the last election. I think the longer term story - and I think today marks quite an important step on it - is the general decline of sectarian identities (both politically and as religious identity) and the emergence of a new non-sectarian, or post-sectarian, Northern Irish identity.

It's huge psychologically and as a moment but practically this all doesn't really mean very much - though I think the DUP/unionism is going to have a very acrimonious fight about how to respond and may collapse Stormont. It's likely unionists will provoke a constitutional crisis over this. The First Minister and Deputy First Minister have exactly the same powers constitutionally and are required to agree for anything to happen. Sinn Fein had actually long pushed for them to be re-named Joint First Ministers, but the First/Deputy name was kept for unionist pride.

Similarly under the UK law implementing the Good Friday Agreement, a border poll should be called "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland" - that hasn't really happened. Basically unionists and nationalists both got about 40% of the vote and 20% voted for one of the non-sectarian parties, and there's still never been a poll showing majority support for unification.

So the practical effect is limited, but symbolically it's hugely important - and I can't think of any place, certainly in the UK, where symbols matter more politically than Northern Ireland.

Edit: Also on the Starmer story, it's pretty unsavoury how many Corbyn aides and backers are very clearly enjoying this - already caling for Starmer to resign - and hinting that Corbyn loyal staff have been leaking this stuff to the right-wing press. As ever, Labour never missing an opportunity to just have a massive, self-indulgent factional fight

[Sheilbh]

Interesting from the Times:

Keir Starmer considers pledging to resign if fined over 'beergate'
Colleagues urge Labour leader 'regain moral high ground' over Boris Johnson
Henry Zeffman, Associate Political Editor |
Patrick Maguire, Red Box Editor |
Chris Smyth, Whitehall Editor
Monday May 09 2022, 11.35am, The Times

Sir Keir Starmer is considering announcing that he would resign as Labour leader if he is found to have broken lockdown rules.

He is being urged by close colleagues to wrest back the political initiative by stating that he believes receiving a fine for breaking coronavirus restrictions is a resigning offence for party leaders.

This would enable him to keep calling for Boris Johnson's resignation while he is under his own investigation.

Starmer is understood to have accepted that he needs a fresh political position to reflect the new reality of the Durham investigation, which is expected to take six to eight weeks. This morning he is taking soundings from supportive members of the shadow cabinet, senior staff members and allies about what that position should be. Announcing that he would resign if fined is one option under consideration.

Starmer cancelled an event in Westminster today where he was likely to have been asked about the affair but is still likely to make a new statement on the issue today, The Times has been told.

Durham police announced on Friday that they were investigating whether an offence had occurred during the Labour leader's visit to the office of Mary Foy, the City of Durham MP, on April 30 last year. Labour said it was a work event during the local elections. Conservative MPs have challenged this and called on Starmer, who was pictured drinking a beer, to resign.

Starmer's allies fear that the next two months could be paralysed by the investigation. By saying he would resign if fined, some believe, Starmer would retain the moral high ground over Johnson, who was fined last month for a birthday gathering in 2020 and could face further fines.

"There's a clear logic to it," one supporter said. "It would give him something to say at the despatch box when Johnson raises it."

Another influential Starmer supporter said: "He feels a huge sense of honour. He is the real deal. But he is less sure of himself on politics and determining what action would be best for him and the party."

Friends of Starmer said he had been blindsided by the intensity of the media and political pressure over the affair.

"It is almost beyond his imagination," one said. "The content of the stories may be ridiculous but when they are weaponised by the Tory machine the impact is lethal."

This morning Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, accused the Tories and right-wing newspapers of a smear campaign as he dismissed claims that Starmer had not told the full story about the curry he ate with more than a dozen Labour staff at a time when indoor socialising was against the law.

In a combative round of interviews Streeting argued that it was perfectly reasonable for the party leader to schedule dinner on a campaign visit. He predicted that Starmer would be cleared, saying: "I have absolute faith and confidence in that and I don't think I'll be eating my words at the end of the police investigation."

Streeting told Good Morning Britain on ITV that there had been "an attempted character assassination" on Starmer by the Conservative Party and the Daily Mail, which has been highlighting the "beergate" story for the past two weeks.

Yesterday The Mail on Sunday found a memo describing the Durham trip in which time was allocated for dinner, after which the visit ended.

Streeting denied that this undermined Starmer's defence that he and his colleagues had simply paused to eat while working. "A senior politician like Keir Starmer, you don't just rock up in a place like Durham, wander around a bit aimlessly and then hope for the best. Everything is planned. Everything is arranged. It's totally reasonable that during the course of the day time would be set aside for dinner," he said.

"It doesn't contradict anything that Keir has said all the way along about the fact that he was in Durham during an election campaign, had some dinner, carried on working, and I just don't understand the controversy."

I totally agree with Streeting and think this wasn't a breach of the covid rules. I also think Starmer would have to resign if he was fined - so it makes sense to get ahead of it and try to make a virtue of it.

Apparently the front bench of the Tory party are trying to get their backbenchers to shut up about this, because attacking Starmer for this assumes that he broke the rules, an investigation will fine him for it and that he wouldn't resign. I'm not sure any of those are true and they will all just draw attention back to Johnson - particularly when we know that the events he attended that are still under investigation include an ABBA party, a BYOB party and a suitcase of wine

As Stephen Bush put it "a party's strategy is set by its dumbest members. 'Set' is the wrong word. 'Constrained'. It the Leeroy Jenkins problem: if one of your party charges into an encounter with limited upside for you, you're in it where you want to be or not"

Weirdly Tory voters seem better at thinking two steps ahead than Tory MPs. So Tory voters don't think Starmer or Johnson should necessarily resign - similarly Labour members think that if there are fines, both should.

I also think Starmer falling on his sword would probably make him one of the most popular politicians in the country and allow Labour to pick a new leader, given that he hasn't really connected that well with the public yet (but would if he resigned ). Of course any strategy that depends on Labour members picking a sensible leader and not a nutter, is inherently fraught with risk - but Starmer's rule changes should make it safer. Still very concerned that Labour accidentally elections Richard Burgon as their new leader and we're doomed to another decade of Tory rule

Separately from pollster who previously did Theresa May's focus groups:

James Johnson
@jamesjohnson252
Last week we asked people who left the Tories why they did so. Top answers were Boris/trust/local issues, but this response is my favourite

Geronimo was murdered. 100% Tory-Green switcher

Edit: And on the Starmer thing apparently the Tory whips office has been urgently communicating to all MPs that they are NOT under any circumstances to say Starmer should resign

Edit: Apparently Starmer is going to make a statement in about an hour and is expected to announce he'll resign if fined. People are saying this is high risk and I can see where they're coming from - on the other hand, if he was fined given everything he's said (rightly) over the last few months I think he'd have to resign. So, to an extent, I think he's actually making a bit of a benefit out of the situation.

[Josquius]

Fucking hell with the ancient woodland bollocks.

I don't think starmer did anything wrong and it'd be a clear sign of Durhams continued efforts to be Britain's Florida if he is fined...
But I do wonder how that would go. Could be helpful for labour, it's not like it means Corbyn would be back, Nandy or Reyner could be OK leaders. And it shows labour actually have integrity.
Sure the usual suspects would try to spin it as labour bad but I'd hope people are smart enough to see through that

[Sheilbh]

I don't think starmer did anything wrong and it'd be a clear sign of Durhams continued efforts to be Britain's Florida if he is fined...
But I do wonder how that would go. Could be helpful for labour, it's not like it means Corbyn would be back, Nandy or Reyner could be OK leaders. And it shows labour actually have integrity.
Sure the usual suspects would try to spin it as labour bad but I'd hope people are smart enough to see through that

Rayner was also at the event and has said she'd step down as deputy leader if fined. Tough to see how she could then mount a leadership campaign.

I think and hope it would be Nandy - but Yvette Cooper, Andy Burnham (if he can get a seat), Wes Streeting might also fancy a go. My hope is that the Labour membership have a sense they could get into power soon so will focus on choosing a candidate who could win and not going down the self-indulgence route again.

It's interesting watching Johnson aligned journalists who spent ages asking "why won't the police investigate Starmer" suddenly say this statement is wrong because it puts pressure on the police They're also trying to convince themselves this wouldn't impact Johnson anyway - who is, I think, still likely to face more fines.

Although Dominic Cummings is claiming it's all a Vote Leave plot From yesterday:

Dominic Cummings
@Dominic2306
fantastic to see CCHQ/no10/Mail/Sun/Telegraph turbo-boosting the Vote Leave-Deep State operation to remove the 🛒 (& if we bag Starmer too it's a bonus) 😂🤡
#RegimeChange #OODAfkd

And today:

Dominic Cummings
@Dominic2306
great to see everyone in sw1 today working on the Vote Leave operation to remove the 🛒 , especially the carrie stooge network of cole wickham et al now in total panic that theyre accidentally working for us 😂

[Tamas]

Wasn't he a Leaver as well? Deep state?  He is such a douche, it's easy to be right all the time if he overwrites his past opinions based on the present situation.

[Sheilbh]

Wasn't he a Leaver as well? Deep state?  He is such a douche, it's easy to be right all the time if he overwrites his past opinions based on the present situation.

His line's always been that Johnson is a disaster and - hence the shopping trolley nickname - just swings aimlessly crashing into things, unless he is basically just a "tool" for Vote Leave (Cummings) to use. Otherwise Johnson has no idea what he wnats to do or how to do it.

It's, like a lot of what he says, both nonsense and plausible

[Tamas]

Wasn't he a Leaver as well? Deep state?  He is such a douche, it's easy to be right all the time if he overwrites his past opinions based on the present situation.

His line's always been that Johnson is a disaster and - hence the shopping trolley nickname - just swings aimlessly crashing into things, unless he is basically just a "tool" for Vote Leave (Cummings) to use. Otherwise Johnson has no idea what he wnats to do or how to do it.

It's, like a lot of what he says, both nonsense and plausible

His line wasn't always that Johnson was a disaster. That's what he might have thought all the time but he worked for Johnson and only became a vocal opponent after he got fired. I can't believe you are falling for such an obvious fake idiot.

[The Larch]

So, apparently Queen Elizabeth is delegating on Prince Charles the opening of Parliament.

How are those plans for the royal funeral going?

[Sheilbh]

His line wasn't always that Johnson was a disaster. That's what he might have thought all the time but he worked for Johnson and only became a vocal opponent after he got fired. I can't believe you are falling for such an obvious fake idiot.

Loads of Tory MPs said Johnson is a disaster and would be a disaster while they were nominating him to be party leader, because they thought he could win an election for them. I'm not sure why Cummings would be any different given that I think in general his analysis tends to be pretty a pretty good read of where we are.

Also that Cummings might have always thought that he was the eminence grise behind everything strikes me as likely, probably not grounded in fact and not something that reflects well on him.

So, apparently Queen Elizabeth is delegating on Prince Charles the opening of Parliament.

How are those plans for the royal funeral going?

Yeah - the thing that I find striking is her missing Remembrance Sunday/Armistice Day events. Those are things that, especially as she's of that generation, she takes really seriously and would always attend unless she really couldn't.

Edit: Incidentally - this is great polling. I always think there needs to be a control factual event or politician so we can see what the public's baseline for "following" a story or approval ratings are

James Tapsfield
@JamesTapsfield
Lovely bit of polling from Savanta: 41% of Brits have heard about Beergate, 74% Partygate - and 20% claim they know about Hikegate 'a fictional Covid-related scandal relating to Ed Davey'

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally good speech by Ben Wallace (he's running). The first 1/4 is basically British military throat clearing at a ceremony to mark VE Day. The rest is focused on Russia and strong - interesting that it's the second time Wallace has basically done a speech that's very targeted against Putin's historical vision:
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/speech-by-defence-secretary-on-russias-invasion-of-ukraine

[Zanza]

So Liz Truss wants to unilaterally suspend the NIP. Again. Which might trigger a UK/EU trade war and US diplomatic pressure. Again. With a majority in Northern Ireland for the protocol as per the latest election. And no serious attempts by London to convince Unionists to accept the protocol. Disappointing if this ineptitude by the British government leads to a fallout between UK and EU.