Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Really interesting project by Royal Holloway University and Survation - they're going to do research on the most important issue in each constituency every quarter. The first map, as you'd expected, dominated by the economy:


Apparently the covid constituencies are disproportionately in Labour voting areas. It looks to me like most of the Brexit seats are in London (in fact I think my constituency is one of them ) so, I'd guess, disproportionately angry Remainers (Remain won 70% of the vote in my constituency.

Intrigued by the one crime constituency - that looks like in Enfield. No idea what's going on there

[Tamas]

The problem with this of course is that economy and Brexit are closely linked, whether the constituents like it or not. Which of course means that in all likelihood we'll quietly become a Norway in regards to our relationship to the EU. Which is fine, except it'll have to be done via a myriad of extra paperwork and rules, so we can pretend we are "independent".

[Sheilbh]

The problem with this of course is that economy and Brexit are closely linked, whether the constituents like it or not. Which of course means that in all likelihood we'll quietly become a Norway in regards to our relationship to the EU. Which is fine, except it'll have to be done via a myriad of extra paperwork and rules, so we can pretend we are "independent".

I think people get that Brexit and the economy are linked.

But I think it's nonsense to say that right now the major issues with the economy - inflationary shocks especially around energy and food - are tied to Brexit. People are aware there are global issuess with inflation driven by the war and other factors (coming out of covid, supply chain shocks from massive Chinese cities being locked down, increase demand for gas in Asia etc) that is driving inflation. Brexit might be a part of that, but given that UK inflation is currently below and projected to peak below Eurozone or US inflation, I don't think it's a big part.

If the economic situation we faced was a recession with exporters going out of business because they couldn't export to Europe, then I think people would identify that the economic issue was Brexit. Or if we were experiencing inflationary pressures that no-one else in Europe or developed world economies were, then people would identify the problem was Brexit. But that hasn't happened so people are rightly identifying (because they're not stupid) that the issue isn't Brexit.

As I say the OBR's projection is over the long-term Brexit will cost 4% of GDP in the next few decades. That is significant - but the experience of Brexit is not going to be a shock that will make people change their minds or realise they were wrong. On current trends it's that we will get comparatively poorer in relation to our neighbours and, in say, 30-40 years we will look up and notice that we are worse off than, say, the French. Having said that the growth level is somethinig British governments can change, it's not fate and long-term economic projections are about as reliable as long-term weather predictions - I hope they make the right choices. But that'll take some realism and embracing the economy we are, not the economy politicians (and the public) wish we were.

[Sheilbh]

The Tory porn MPs defence is that he was watching porn by mistake. He accidentally clicked on something.

This is fully into that Little Britain character territory: "my clothes accidentally fell of and I found myself sandwiched between the two gentlemen"

Edit: He has now resigned. Apparently the first time was accidental "after looking at tractors", but the second time was deliberate. I cannot imagine a more Lib Dem-y by-election than a rural central Devon seat

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes, the Lib-Dems will pull out all the stops for this by-election.

Presumably Labour will be looking to give the Tories a good kicking in Wakefield as well 

[Sheilbh]

Yep - and hopefully Wakefield will stop internal critics in Labour from going mad because Labour got jump-frogged by the Lib Dems as happened in North Shropshire. North Shropshire and Tiverton will never elect a Labour MP - but if they're pissed off, they might protest with the Liberals.

But if Labour also win Wakefield that should at least delay those moans.

It just all feels so 90s. I'm trying to stay pessimistic so I'm not disappointed....but

Edit: Incidentally really interesting piece by Paul Waugh on law and order being a sleeper issue - apparently Labour are very interested in just how much it's coming up on the doorstep:
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/law-and-order-crime-labour-beating-conservatives-own-game-1603596

Johnson has promised to hire 20,000 more police (and we're up about 12,000 since 2019) - but that basically just gets us to the position we were in in 2010 before Tory austerity. So Labour's Shadow Home Secretary:

Yvette Cooper
@YvetteCooperMP
Across country people are telling us they don't see police on streets any more, or proper action on crime & antisocial behaviour.

Here's why;
7000 fewer neighbourhood police.
Crime rising.
Record low charge rate.

The Tories are failing on law & order.

If Labour can - and I think "security" is a great tent pole for Labour to build their policies around - beat the Tories on law and order and the economy, then I can't see what the Tories have left.

[Sheilbh]

On the latest set of me too at Westminster just not being a safe workplace.

Worth noting Labour shadow minister Jess Phillips' important counter on this though:

Jess Phillips MP
@jessphillips
Counterpoint to all the Westminster is dreadful stuff. Women in Westminster this week, by and large Tory women made themselves heard, worked together supportively and succeeded in their aims to have action taken. I know it might not seem like it but I'd call that progress.
So much attention goes on to the misdemeanours of the wronguns and fails to recognise the strength of those who stood up against it. They were MPs too! They all work in Westminster too. They are away from their families and doing late nights too. They did a good thing.

Tories have also committed themselves to gender parity in MPs (they're currently about 25% women; Labour's over 50% women). I'm assuming not by the next election as many candidates will already be selected, but maybe.

One other point that this story makes clear and is a little under-reported with the me too stories is that Westminster is a very gay place. It's a very similar dynamic of powerful men taking advantage but it's not been discussed much so good to see it clear here:

Sex, booze and politics: inside the corridors of power in the week that reignited Westminster's #MeToo
Five years after the Pestminster scandal, the reputation of MPs is back in the gutter, write Caroline Wheeler and Harry Yorke
Saturday April 30 2022, 6.00pm, The Sunday Times

The meeting on Tuesday had been called to quell growing unease among female Tory MPs about the ever-increasing claims of sexual misconduct in Westminster. Instead it had the opposite effect, reigniting the so-called "Pestminster" scandal and plunging parliament back into a crisis over sleaze.

The grenade detonated during a 65-minute session in which more than a dozen women recounted their experiences of misogyny, sexual harassment and bullying. Two female MPs, one a minister, said they had seen a male MP watching pornography on his phone in the House of Commons chamber.

The MP in question, Neil Parish, representing Tiverton and Honiton in Devon, has stood down. He had been suspended by the party after his name emerged on Friday.

Chris Heaton-Harris, the chief whip, had convened Tuesday's meeting of the 2022 Committee, a revamp of the Conservative Women in Parliament group.

He was prompted to do after the furore over Angela Rayner, Labour's deputy leader, who was the subject of a lurid briefing by an unnamed Tory MP. He said that she routinely crossed and uncrossed her legs in the Commons to distract the prime minister, Boris Johnson.

But if Heaton-Harris thought that it would be an exercise in catharsis, the anger that followed suggests he has uncovered even more problems.

Last week The Sunday Times revealed that three cabinet ministers and two shadow cabinet ministers were among 56 MPs facing allegations of sexual misconduct. MPs, peers, special advisers, researchers and staff have now shared their accounts of sexual harassment and abuse in the corridors of power.

But while many involve low-level sexism and outdated attitudes, there are also serious allegations of sexual assault. The common thread is a working environment where, despite endless promises of reform, power trumps everything.

Underpinning this is a hard-drinking culture. MPs are often separated from their families for much of the week and there is a large number of young, impressionable researchers eager to rub shoulders with their political idols.

Lockdowns and the closure of bars on the parliamentary estate for much of the past two years, as well as the influx of a generation of young MPs after the 2019 general election, have made matters worse.

One insider said that in recent weeks an MP had become so drunk on champagne that they had been escorted from the Pugin Room, one of the most opulent hospitality venues in parliament. The source also said that a female researcher had consumed so much alcohol that she vomited over a parliamentary bar. She was later found unconscious outside the room. A senior official blamed bar staff for continuing to serve MPs and their staff when they are inebriated.

Baroness Jenkin of Kennington, a co-founder of the Women2Win group, which aims to get more Tory women into politics, described the culture in Westminster as a "toxic mix of stress, and booze and testosterone and power". She added: "I don't know what the solution is because you can't do anything about testosterone and you can't do much about the stress of it, and the power is inevitable. You can do something about the booze."

One of the most egregious examples of drunken and disorderly behaviour crossing into serious misconduct is that of a senior MP who has been accused of repeatedly licking the faces of male researchers in parliamentary bars.

Several years ago a former government adviser said that the same MP had groped them on the estate during a social event and later behaved inappropriately towards one of their friends while they were sleeping.

It has also been alleged that a female Tory MP was sent an explicit photograph, known as a "dick pic", by a male colleague. Another MP has been repeatedly warned about his use of prostitutes, according to sources.

The allegations also extend to members of the government. A minister has been accused of having "noisy sex" in his parliamentary office, frequently overheard by neighbouring MPs.

One of the most senior female MPs in parliament, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, revealed that she had been "pinned up against a wall" by a colleague who made sexual advances towards her.

Her cabinet colleague, Suella Braverman, the attorney-general, said that a minority of men in politics "behave like animals".

Below the level of serious offending, there are myriad examples of low-level misogyny and sexism which betray a culture still rooted in the past.

One female MP said that for a number of years a minister had referred to her by a nickname which implied that she was sexually promiscuous, while another said she was given a payroll job in government only because she "had tits".

A third prominent female MP, who was wearing a calf-length leather skirt, was asked by a male colleague what she "did for her day job", which she interpreted to be a suggestion that she was dressed like a prostitute.

Last week a Welsh MP claimed that one of Sir Keir Starmer's shadow cabinet members had described her as a "secret weapon" because women wanted to be her friend and men wanted to sleep with her. One MP said: "The problem is that women in parliament are tolerated. They are not seen as an asset. It's very much a boys' club."

The phenomenon is not confined to the Westminster bubble. During a recent by-election, two sources canvassing with a married Conservative MP said that he had joked: "Who needs Tinder when you have got canvassing?"

Last week's controversy is only the latest chapter in a saga that began five years ago when allegations of sexual harassment by a number of MPs led to the creation of the Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme (ICGS). Sir Michael Fallon, Charlie Elphicke and Stephen Crabb were among MPs who faced allegations of sexual impropriety.

Fallon resigned as a minister over a string of allegations. Elphicke was jailed for two years on three charges of sexual assault. Two of the cases involved a parliamentary worker in 2016 and one was in relation to a woman at his family's central London home in 2007.

In 2017, the Tory minister Damian Green was sacked as first secretary of state after admitting he had lied about the presence of pornographic images on his House of Commons computer.

Since it was set up in 2018, the ICGS has conducted a number of investigations into the behaviour of MPs, including most recently John Bercow, the former Speaker of the Commons, who was found to be a "serial bully", and Mike Hill, the former Labour MP for Hartlepool, who was accused of subjecting a member of his staff to a campaign of sexual harassment and bullying.

Although many within parliament claim the creation of the ICGS is a vast improvement on the scant protections for staff, the culture has yet to change. Some believe it has even got worse.

Last month Imran Ahmad Khan, a Conservative MP, resigned following his conviction for sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy in 2008. Another Conservative MP, David Warburton, had the whip suspended after it was revealed he was under investigation over alleged sexual harassment. One of Warburton's alleged victims worked for him — and his office manager was his wife.

The case has led to calls for an overhaul of working practices in parliament where MPs employ staff directly and deal with human resources problems themselves, making it difficult for employees to challenge inappropriate behaviour.

Jenny Symmons, who works for the Labour MP Sarah Owen and chairs the GMB union branch representing MPs' staff, said: "The ICGS was and is a brilliant improvement on what existed for staff ... if you worked for an MP you had no one to complain to about a workplace issue other than your MP. Often, said MP was indeed the workplace issue you needed to report.

"We now have a mechanism to make complaints and have them investigated thoroughly and independently by trained professionals. However it has not changed the culture of bullying, sexual harassment and the general abuses of power that take place in Westminster. The deference felt towards members of parliament has not gone away.

"While they have the abilities to run their offices (effectively small businesses) however they like without oversight or accountability, the miserable working lives of some staff will not improve."

Symmons said the union was calling for the employment system for MPs' staff to be "revolutionised".

"Power of employment must be taken away from MPs, who arguably have more important matters to focus on, and a central body — be it the House of Commons or the financial authority Ipsa [the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority] — must take over the employment responsibility.

"MPs could still choose their team, in the way big organisations do, but not hold total control over the pay, holiday allowance, working hours and working conditions of their staff.

"This would be an astronomical change in the way our archaic institution works; but the culture of bullying and exploitation in parliament is a rot that requires the floors to be ripped out."

Dame Andrea Leadsom, the former leader of the House of Commons who led a cross-party panel that oversaw the creation of the ICGS, agrees and now backs the creation of a human resources service for parliament.

However, she still believes the ICGS is fit for purpose and will eventually help to change the culture in parliament. She said: "The problem has been that the ICGS has not been able to employ enough specialist investigators and this has meant that a lot of the investigations have taken too long. This means only a small number of cases have gone through the system but I firmly believe that once that number increases and MPs see that there are serious consequences for their behaviour then the culture will change."

This weekend Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker of the House of Commons, has called for a review of working practices and is seeking to establish a Speaker's conference "as soon as possible" to consider the case for change.

He told The Sunday Times: "I believe it is time we reviewed our working practices, and particularly whether it is right that individual MPs are the employers of their staff. Should someone else — or an outside body — employ the staff, as long as the MP has the right to choose them?

"This would mean that all new staff would be employed on standard terms and conditions. In addition, if a staff member wanted to report a serious breach of employment practice against an MP, they would not have to go to that very same MP to make that report; and less serious complaints and grievances could be resolved more quickly.

"For MPs, they would not have to add the responsibilities of being a small employer to an already important and demanding job — and would have formal support in managing their staff."

Hoyle added: "I would like us to look at best practice in other parliaments around the world, to see if there are other models that would work here. In my opinion, it is time to consider radical action and review structures and processes that could make a difference. Some serious allegations have been made, and we must address them as a matter of urgency. It is imperative we do the right thing by staff and MPs as well.

I want to make sure that everyone feels they have support and somewhere to turn — and to make this House not only a safe and inclusive place to work, but a model for other legislatures."

While Hoyle's proposals will be welcomed by many MPs, there will be others who will question how easy it will be to restore the reputation of a parliament so mired in scandal.

[Sheilbh]

Re. why I look at the German Greens with so much envy

Hugo Gye
@HugoGye
Green party co-leader Adrian Ramsay confirms that the party would like the UK to leave Nato, but not until the Ukraine war is over

[mongers]

Re. why I look at the German Greens with so much envy

Hugo Gye
@HugoGye
Green party co-leader Adrian Ramsay confirms that the party would like the UK to leave Nato, but not until the Ukraine war is over

Oh dear god.

And I was thinking about joining the Green party.

[Sheilbh]

It also just makes no sense. I can get being anti-NATO, though I think it's wrong, but I can't wrap my head around wanting to leave NATO but holding on until the war in Ukraine is over

[Duque de Bragança]

It also just makes no sense. I can get being anti-NATO, though I think it's wrong, but I can't wrap my head around wanting to leave NATO but holding on until the war in Ukraine is over

Mélenchon copycat.   

[Sheilbh]

Finally some real culture war content. Catholics have been turning (re-claiming) Walsingham into a shrine to Mary. So big celebration today for the start of May with multiple bishops getting the statue out for a procession etc:


With some appropriately East Anglian protesters

[Jacob]

Exciting stuff. There's almost half a dozen protesters. Well more like a third of a dozen protesters, but still. Impressive banner.

[Sheilbh]

From the North Norfolk Police's Twitter - and, I suspect, the most complex protest policing operation they've had to deal with in years.

[crazy canuck]

I love the bemused looks of the guys leaning against the window ledge.