2016 elections - because it's never too early

[FunkMonk]

Obama did a decent job in the suburbs and he won bigly. Twice.

I am just saying you cannot appeal to everybody. The Democrats think they have Demographics on their side with their current strategy. We will see. The fact that the Latinos are going over to the other team the longer they stay here doesn't bode well but hey the Republicans lose 30%+ of the rural and suburban people to the Dems as well.

Yeah, some constituency blocks are just too incompatible, and too large to be marginalized.  You can't appeal to both minorities and bigots.  You have to pay lip service to the concerns of one group or the other, and that won't last.  You have to pick one and let the other go to the other team.

Obama won bigly appealing to a constellation of voters, most of whom I'm assuming weren't bigots.

While I agree that if you try to make a tent too large the whole thing will come crashing down, I think abandoning people to the other party just because they live in places that aren't fashionable or have slightly different values (God and guns, that sort of thing) is foolish. The American two-party system is supposed to have rather large, almost unwieldy coalitions of different groups and slightly different values. Emphasizing commonalities and taking the "other" as serious partners in advancing a common agenda is how it's supposed to work.

But seriously all the 59 million people who voted for Trump are actually massive racists LOOOOOL

[Valmy]

Having a charismatic leader draw in people from other demographics is not the same as making a segment of the population part of your base though.

[derspiess]

So, as expected, Clinton won with the people who (with the exception of women) have a lower turnout than average.

Thing is, even her base didn't seem to like her too much. 

[FunkMonk]

Having a charismatic leader draw in people from other demographics is not the same as making a segment of the population part of your base though.

Fair point. But making inroads can't hurt.

[alfred russel]

The president's party almost always loses seats. SInce there's likely to be a bad recession that will probably happen again.

In light of recent events, shouldnt you be keeping your predictions to yourself for a while?

Since I don't actually have spooky fate powers, how about no.

It isn't about spooky fate powers, it is an adjustment of the insight vs. post count ratio in your predictions. And a little humility for being so completely fucking wrong.

An example: in the primaries, I was adamant that Trump would not be a nominee. I was wrong. I posted a thread announcing I was wrong and that other people were right. After that, I didn't post a ton about general election predictions, and toned down my general election posting overall. The reasons? As demonstrated in the primaries, I clearly don't have much grasp of what is going on, and with that being so obvious, it would only annoy people to post predictions every day and I'd look (even more) like a moron.

What I was in the primaries, you were x10 in the general. You need to reflect on that a bit, and own it. 

[crazy canuck]

I am hearing a number of news reports of demonstrators saying they won't accept the results of the election.  I don't remember that happening in the US before now.

[Phillip V]

I am hearing a number of news reports of demonstrators saying they won't accept the results of the election.  I don't remember that happening in the US before now.

Bush-Gore 2000

[derspiess]

What I was in the primaries, you were x10 in the general. You need to reflect on that a bit, and own it. 

Not.  Gonna.  Happen.  Tim is the guy who fills out 20 NCAA brackets on ESPN and brags about one of them being in the top 5%.

[crazy canuck]

I am hearing a number of news reports of demonstrators saying they won't accept the results of the election.  I don't remember that happening in the US before now.

Bush-Gore 2000

I think that was different.  There was a bona fide legal challenge to the Florida results and Gore did not concede because of that challenge.

This is a case where the election was clearly won and conceded.

[Valmy]

So, as expected, Clinton won with the people who (with the exception of women) have a lower turnout than average.

Thing is, even her base didn't seem to like her too much. 

The Democrats are a splintered coalition, always have been. She was VERY popular and beloved among some parts of the base which is why she almost got the nomination in 2008 and got it this year. The love her and she will be a hero to them forever. Other Democrats have always hated her. Being pro-corporate and capitalism and not wanting to murder the rich in their beds. But that is just how that party works.

[Valmy]

I am hearing a number of news reports of demonstrators saying they won't accept the results of the election.  I don't remember that happening in the US before now.

Birthers?

1860?

It has happened lots of times. The Republicans think that Nixon was robbed of the 1960 election by dead people in Chicago to this day.

[Caliga]

I think that was different.  There was a bona fide legal challenge to the Florida results and Gore did not concede because of that challenge.

This is a case where the election was clearly won and conceded.

They'll shut up and go home in a day or so.

[alfred russel]

I think that was different.  There was a bona fide legal challenge to the Florida results and Gore did not concede because of that challenge.

This is a case where the election was clearly won and conceded.

They'll shut up and go home in a day or so.

I've heard people saying the results lack integrity. At a certain level, I get it. How do you square a country that elected a black guy president twice and seems to like him overall then electing a guy like Trump that has no apparent redeemable qualities and kicked off his campaign calling mexicans rapists?

[Caliga]

How do you square a country that elected a black guy president twice and seems to like him overall

You need to come out to the boonies sometime.

[alfred russel]

How do you square a country that elected a black guy president twice and seems to like him overall

You need to come out to the boonies sometime.

I know, but his approval is up to 55% or something.