Call the Electoral Vote

[sbr]

@katmai. There are plenty of other reason to hate Washington:  Seattle, rain, traffic, sales tax, huskies.  Gays and pot are nothing compared to those abominations.

[katmai]

@katmai. There are plenty of other reason to hate Washington:  Seattle, rain, traffic, sales tax, huskies.  Gays and pot are nothing compared to those abominations.

Motherfucker ! 

[Sheilbh]

My prediction before the debate was closer, I think, than what it looks like the final result will be.  In an odd way this reminds me of 2008.  Every other day there was a 'shift in the momentum' in the Clinton-Obama race.  But, ultimately, it came down to the predictable demographics of the states and the organisations there.

[Count]

My prediction: O wins every swing state but NC

i mean I was just using Nate Silver, but still

[Barrister]

I told you guys this would not be that close.

The result is close, but not really in doubt.

[Phillip V]

The vaunted Obama campaign proved its worth tonight. Very impressive.

While Romney came up short, I am satisfied with his campaigning compared to McCain. Republicans actually became excited by him. But that's a low bar to hop over. Obama's only major mistake was the first debate. Romney's were many.
And electorally, he only flipped Indiana and North Carolina, of which the latter was quite close. Only Romney surprise of the night? He managed to achieve a 4-point margin loss in Minnesota (as of current counting). But that's a pitifully poor consolation prize. Romney underperformed in all the swing states.

Women won the night tonight. They were a whopping 54% of the electorate. With women's growing advantage in income and education, male candidates offend them at their peril, as shown by idiot Republican "rape" candidate losers Todd Akin of Missouri (lost by 15 points) and Richard Mourdock of Indiana (lost by 6 points).

Along with the rise of women, this election may also symbolize the last hurrah of white voters. They supported Romney by 20 points, but their share of the electorate declined once again. President Obama won blacks, Hispanics, and Asians by huge margins.

Finally, I will repost my analysis from yesterday of why voters would narrowly keep Obama for another term:
I give Obama a 75% likelihood of winning the election. The latter two debates slowed Romney's momentum, and Hurricane Sandy put a break on the campaign while boosting the President in a non-partisan coming together moment. Further, short-term economic indicators have held up with unemployment rate still under 8%, housing stabilizing, consumer spending up, and the Dow above 13000.

Major non-President winners from tonight? Paul Ryan and Nate Silver.

[Count]

The vaunted Obama campaign proved its worth tonight. Very impressive.

While Romney came up short, I am satisfied with his campaigning compared to McCain. Republicans actually became excited by him. But that's a low bar to hop over. Obama's only major mistake was the first debate. Romney's were many.
And electorally, he only flipped Indiana and North Carolina, of which the latter was quite close. Only Romney surprise of the night? He managed to achieve a 4-point margin loss in Minnesota (as of current counting). But that's a pitifully poor consolation prize. Romney underperformed in all the swing states.

Women won the night tonight. They were a whopping 54% of the electorate. With women's growing advantage in income and education, male candidates offend them at their peril, as shown by idiot Republican "rape" candidate losers Todd Akin of Missouri (lost by 15 points) and Richard Mourdock of Indiana (lost by 6 points).

Along with the rise of women, this election may also symbolize the last hurrah of white voters. They supported Romney by 20 points, but their share of the electorate declined once again. President Obama won blacks, Hispanics, and Asians by huge margins.

Finally, I will repost my analysis from yesterday of why voters would narrowly keep Obama for another term:
I give Obama a 75% likelihood of winning the election. The latter two debates slowed Romney's momentum, and Hurricane Sandy put a break on the campaign while boosting the President in a non-partisan coming together moment. Further, short-term economic indicators have held up with unemployment rate still under 8%, housing stabilizing, consumer spending up, and the Dow above 13000.

Major non-President winners from tonight? Paul Ryan and Nate Silver.

yeah man mainly the polls were essentially accurate

[Martinus]

Apparently the entire Latino demographics in Utah (aka "Jaron") voted for Obama.

[Phillip V]

yeah man mainly the polls were essentially accurate

No. Florida was supposed to lean Romney, and North Carolina was supposed to be a comfortable Romney win.

In supposed swing states of Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire, Obama won decisive 5 and 6-point wins. Minnesota and Wisconsin ended up having tighter results than those states.

[katmai]

Apparently the entire Latino demographics in Utah (aka "Jaron") voted for Obama.

Not according to him he didn't.

[Count]

yeah man mainly the polls were essentially accurate

No. Florida was supposed to lean Romney, and North Carolina was supposed to be a comfortable Romney win.

In supposed swing states of Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire, Obama won decisive 5 and 6-point wins. Minnesota and Wisconsin ended up having tighter results than those states.

from what I saw Obama was a tiny tiny tiny favorite in Florida (so it was essentially tied), he was favored in Virginia, and was a slight underdog in North Carolina. So Obama won by a bit more in Florida than he was expected to and did a little better or worse in some other states but again, essentially the polls were accurate.

ed: nate silver called every state, which essentially means that a weighted average of the polls called every state

[CountDeMoney]

Major non-President winners from tonight? Paul Ryan and Nate Silver.

Nate Silver didn't get a busload of nuns after his ass.  Only baseball fans.

Paul Ryan will not survive this a national figure.  He'll be a Tea Party darling for the immediate future, but he's been exposed as far too right for a general election.

[Zoupa]

Voila. I gave Obama Missouri for shits and giggles, since it's semi-close there. NC also, why not.

[katmai]

Voila. I gave Obama Missouri for shits and giggles, since it's semi-close there. NC also, why not.

your Nelsoning your own wrong assumptions Zoups?

[Phillip V]

Major non-President winners from tonight? Paul Ryan and Nate Silver.

Nate Silver didn't get a busload of nuns after his ass.  Only baseball fans.

Paul Ryan will not survive this a national figure.  He'll be a Tea Party darling for the immediate future, but he's been exposed as far too right for a general election.

I am not saying that Ryan is now some new megastar future President. Merely that 2012 was a net positive for him. He has a boatload of new experience and raised profile. He can continue to put that to work in Congress and other endeavors.