Call the Electoral Vote

[jimmy olsen]

Let's see who the better prognosticator is.

I say 281-257 for Barrack "the Islamic Shock" Obama

Popular vote margin will be within one percent, and either candidate could win it.

[Eddie Teach]

Romney wins Iowa due to Yi's unflagging efforts.

[CountDeMoney]

Romey wins, 5-4.

[mongers]

Some one wins; Americans lose again.

[Zoupa]

Romey wins, 5-4.

[mongers]

Voting under way!

2357: The candidates are barely off the stump and polls are about to open in the first voting precinct in the country: Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. The handful of voters - 10, according to the Associated Press - will be the first to cast their ballots just after the stroke of midnight on election day.
0005: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney win five votes each in New Hampshire hamlet of Dixville Notch, opening US election 2012.

And it's already a dead heat.   

[Zoupa]

Voila. I gave Obama Missouri for shits and giggles, since it's semi-close there. NC also, why not.

[jimmy olsen]

North Carolina is a lot more plausible than Missouri I think.

[Zoupa]

Yup. Even Florida's a stretch on my map, but hey, you never know.

[Eddie Teach]

North Carolina is a lot more plausible than Missouri I think.

My polling numbers indicate 100% of Missourians favor Obama, it's just a question of whether they can make it out of the house to the polling station. 

[Razgovory]

I'll do my part for Missouri, for all the good it does.  Still I can help keep Todd Akin out of the senate.

[Syt]

You know, I look forward to the end of the campaigns.

There'll be a couple weeks of disagreeing analysis why X won and Y lost, in half a year everyone will be back to the normal bitching about the incompetent idiot in the White House, and in two years, two and a half tops, the whole merry-go-round will start spinning up again when the parties start looking for 2016 candidates.

[Phillip V]

I give Obama a 75% likelihood of winning the election. The latter two debates slowed Romney's momentum, and Hurricane Sandy put a break on the campaign while boosting the President in a non-partisan coming together moment. Further, short-term economic indicators have held up with unemployment rate still under 8%, housing stabilizing, consumer spending up, and the Dow above 13000.




However, as I have stressed time and time again, Romney remains uncomfortably within striking distance. In public polling, Obama's margins are just not high enough ("consistently small") to be assured of victory in swing states such as Ohio, New Hampshire, and even Nevada. Thus, this "Romney Surprise" is quite possible:




Finally, if the Bradley effect and campaign internal polling are as bad as I suspect:



While Obama is more likely to win the election, a Romney is landslide is more likely than an Obama landslide according to my calculations.

[CountDeMoney]

Romey wins, 5-4.

You all laugh.  Just watch.

[Zoupa]

I'm not laughing at you or your prediction. I'm laughing in America's general direction if that happens. Again.