The Future of the Catholic Church

[Iormlund]

The amount of influence the Church can exert will be one of the most interesting things we will see in the near future.

Zapatero has called for early elections on November 20th, which the Socialist candidate is sure to lose, badly. The Populares have in the past introduced religion-motivated legislation such as the ban on clone therapy research. Will they use the economic debacle to overturn the recent abortion law? Gay marriage?

[Sheilbh]

What's the PP like these days?  I remember lots of despairing at the state of them in the early days of Zapatero.  Did they reform (like the Tories) or just get lucky with the timing?

For what it's worth I think any government that's elected in the next few years, anywhere in the world, that looks like they're focusing on social or foreign policy issues rather than the economy will get destroyed at the next election.

[The Larch]

What's the PP like these days?  I remember lots of despairing at the state of them in the early days of Zapatero.  Did they reform (like the Tories) or just get lucky with the timing?

They'll win by shutting up and not saying anything inconvenient about what they really intend to do economically before the elections. They've shed the hard-core Aznaristas (Acebes, Trillo, Zaplana) from the frontlines in the last few years and Rajoy has been able to build his own team with new faces, so I don't think that they'll do anything really controversial in the social front during the next four years. They've talked about abolishing the last reform on abortion to take it back to its earlier version, though, but nobody in their right mind thinks that they'll, say, abolish gay marriage.

[Iormlund]

What's the PP like these days?  I remember lots of despairing at the state of them in the early days of Zapatero.  Did they reform (like the Tories) or just get lucky with the timing?

For what it's worth I think any government that's elected in the next few years, anywhere in the world, that looks like they're focusing on social or foreign policy issues rather than the economy will get destroyed at the next election.

They got really lucky. The bubble started long before the Socialists came to power, during the last Popular government, and most of the local and regional administrations with high debt are Popular fiefdoms. But people don't quite grasp the concept of borrowing money and then having to repay. They think things were peachy then, bad now. So Aznar = good, Zapatero = bad.

Of course it doesn't help that Zapatero is indeed extremely incompetent.

[The Larch]

What's the PP like these days?  I remember lots of despairing at the state of them in the early days of Zapatero.  Did they reform (like the Tories) or just get lucky with the timing?

For what it's worth I think any government that's elected in the next few years, anywhere in the world, that looks like they're focusing on social or foreign policy issues rather than the economy will get destroyed at the next election.

They got really lucky. The bubble started long before the Socialists came to power, during the last Popular government, and most of the local and regional administrations with high debt are Popular fiefdoms. But people don't quite grasp the concept of borrowing money and then having to repay. They think things were peachy then, bad now. So Aznar = good, Zapatero = bad.

Of course it doesn't help that Zapatero is indeed extremely incompetent.

But people are not going to vote for PP because they think deep down that they'll be better with the economy, but because they're in a "anybody but the PSOE" mentality.

It'll be interesting to see how many votes PP will get, they've hovered around the 10 million mark for the last three elections (10'3 mil in 2000, 9'7 in 2004 and 10'2 in 2008), and that has gotten them one absolute majority and two defeats. I don't think that they'll get much more than that, their voters tend to be very faithful and there's no real right wing alternative party. PP could run a dummy for president and still get a healthy amount of votes.
PSOE will, of course, plummet, the only question will be how much (Zapatero managed to get 11 million votes twice, the highest ever for them). I wonder if it'll be as catastrophic a collapse as the 2000 elections, when PP won an absolute majority because they got just 8 million votes. I guess that most of their voters will simply abstain or go to other smaller parties. Who knows, maybe IU will get its own parlamentary group again.

[dps]

As long as the church can maintain itself with cosmetic concessions and payouts to the abused they will continue. Nothing is going to happen until they are about to run out of money or out of priests. Note the former is much more likely than the latter as seen by the Anglican/Episcopalian church importing 3rd world priests to the empty parishes in England.

Don't you mean that the latter is more likely?

[viper37]

He's right though.

No.

[Razgovory]

He's right though.

No.

Yes.

[Josquius]

I've heard mutterings of an Anglican reconcilliation being on the cards....

But yes. As the world develops it will drop off along with other religions.
Unless the world starts going downhill, which is the way things are looking at the current moment....

[grumbler]

He's right though.

No.

The second sentence is, indeed, correct.  Not believing in the reality of anything other than one's own existence is a severe mental disorder, and any society whose citizenry is all stricken with a severe mental disorder is on its way to destruction.

Raz is wrong that this describes "the West" though, unless he is talking about some fictional land.

[Valmy]

But yes. As the world develops it will drop off along with other religions.

We'll see.

[Viking]

I've heard mutterings of an Anglican reconcilliation being on the cards....

But yes. As the world develops it will drop off along with other religions.
Unless the world starts going downhill, which is the way things are looking at the current moment....

Meh, that's been "on the cards" since Henry VIII.

[MadImmortalMan]

It will continue at least until the time of Sister Miriam Godwinson. That much we know. Under her leadership everyone will DIAF though.

[viper37]

The second sentence is, indeed, correct.  Not believing in the reality of anything other than one's own existence is a severe mental disorder, and any society whose citizenry is all stricken with a severe mental disorder is on its way to destruction.

I do not believe that a society where the citizens believe in an imaginary power greater than themselves to solve their problems is inherently superior to a society who understands the limits of reality.

[viper37]

But yes. As the world develops it will drop off along with other religions.
Unless the world starts going downhill, which is the way things are looking at the current moment....

The Church has long years to live yet.  Governments may be shying away from "religious integration", but that doesn't mean the people have stop believing.
And we should not underestimate the 3rd world, especially as some of these countries are not so 3rd world anymore.

The Church suffers backlash for covering pedophilia in the pasts, but this will go away, in time.  The Church has lived through worst.  And it survived.
50 years from now, the Church will be in the exact same spot it is now.