So we hit the debt limit...

[Admiral Yi]

Worked for Clinton.  He was able to sell the public on the idea that the shutdown was the fault of Gingrich and the Congressional Republicans.

Gingrich and Clinton scratched the paint on the National Parks for two days.  They're playing for higher stakes now.

[sbr]

You REFUSED to re-arm the Germans and invade Russia.

You REFUSED to nuke Red China.

You ARMED the muslims.

We beat the Russians in the Cold War, turned the Chinese into capitalists, and now the Arabs are taking out their dictators on their own and Osama is fish food.

USA 3, Whiny Swede Nazis 0

[Razgovory]

"We are going to force a default now, because we have get spending under control to keep us from defaulting later." This is so stupid, Obama should quit negoitating and tell them to fuck off.

That's not a very objective appraisal of the negotiating dynamic.  If two guys are playing chicken and they end up crashing you can't claim only one of them forced the crash.

Worked for Clinton.  He was able to sell the public on the idea that the shutdown was the fault of Gingrich and the Congressional Republicans.

It helped that several Republicans publicly voiced their approval of said shutdown.

[Grallon]

Personally I can't wait to see the US crumble under the weight of its own internal contradictions. 

You guys may think you're 'too big to fail' but there inevitably comes a point where people cut their losses.  In this case that would be the money lenders that have been shoring up the US Treasury's balance for such a long time.

Besides, History teaches us that no power is so great as to escape decadence. 




G.

[Admiral Yi]

You guys may think you're 'too big to fail' but there inevitably comes a point where people cut their losses.  In this case that would be the money lenders that have been shoring up the US Treasury's balance for such a long time.

Actually that would be our own central bank.

[alfred russel]

Here is an idea: don't play chicken! If the other guy gets an attitude about that and runs you down while you are crossing the street, you are still screwed, but he is a lunatic. You weren't going to beat that guy in chicken anyway.

Not playing chicken would be to pass the GOP budget.

I'm speaking about the part of the negotiation involving the debt limit. Everyone agrees the debt limit needs to go up, and a default would be a disaster. A reasonable negotiation would be: you want $3 trillion in spending cuts, I want $1 trillion and some tax increases, lets either meet in the middle or one of us completely cave.

A negotiation of: we want you to do xyz, and if you don't we won't pass the debt limit increase which will nuke the world economy--that isn't reasonable imo. That is taking the economy hostage. Obama should refuse to negotiate the debt limit imo, and tell the Republicans to pass it, or don't pass it, it is up to them.

[Razgovory]

Personally I can't wait to see the US crumble under the weight of its own internal contradictions. 



G.

Why won't you be able to wait?  Are you dying or something?  I strongly suspect you'll have to wait quite a while.

[Razgovory]

I'm speaking about the part of the negotiation involving the debt limit. Everyone agrees the debt limit needs to go up, and a default would be a disaster. A reasonable negotiation would be: you want $3 trillion in spending cuts, I want $1 trillion and some tax increases, lets either meet in the middle or one of us completely cave.

A negotiation of: we want you to do xyz, and if you don't we won't pass the debt limit increase which will nuke the world economy--that isn't reasonable imo. That is taking the economy hostage. Obama should refuse to negotiate the debt limit imo, and tell the Republicans to pass it, or don't pass it, it is up to them.

The GOP knows Obama.  Despite their rhetoric about it him, they know he's a responsible human being.  They know if they are unreasonable enough he'll eventually have to give in.

[Admiral Yi]

I'm speaking about the part of the negotiation involving the debt limit. Everyone agrees the debt limit needs to go up, and a default would be a disaster. A reasonable negotiation would be: you want $3 trillion in spending cuts, I want $1 trillion and some tax increases, lets either meet in the middle or one of us completely cave.

A negotiation of: we want you to do xyz, and if you don't we won't pass the debt limit increase which will nuke the world economy--that isn't reasonable imo. That is taking the economy hostage. Obama should refuse to negotiate the debt limit imo, and tell the Republicans to pass it, or don't pass it, it is up to them.

Then you're back to playing chicken, with a different speech before the flag drops.

[alfred russel]

I'm speaking about the part of the negotiation involving the debt limit. Everyone agrees the debt limit needs to go up, and a default would be a disaster. A reasonable negotiation would be: you want $3 trillion in spending cuts, I want $1 trillion and some tax increases, lets either meet in the middle or one of us completely cave.

A negotiation of: we want you to do xyz, and if you don't we won't pass the debt limit increase which will nuke the world economy--that isn't reasonable imo. That is taking the economy hostage. Obama should refuse to negotiate the debt limit imo, and tell the Republicans to pass it, or don't pass it, it is up to them.

Then you're back to playing chicken, with a different speech before the flag drops.

I don't follow what you are saying...If we are playing chicken with a government shutdown due to a difference in budgeting priorities; I have no problem with that. A government shutdown isn't the same as a default.

[Tonitrus]

The Republicans have suggested that the civilian workforce contribute more to its retirement in the future, effectively trimming 5 percent from salaries.

Wouldn't that trigger a massive recession?

Just federal employees.

Poor Seigy.

Just civilian employees.

There has been talk of going after the (really, quite generous) military retirement system.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't follow what you are saying...If we are playing chicken with a government shutdown due to a difference in budgeting priorities; I have no problem with that. A government shutdown isn't the same as a default.

What I'm saying is that your previous post just puts a different gloss on the status quo ante.  Obama says if we don't increase the debt limit it will be Armaggedon.  GOP says if you want to raise the debt limit you have to pass our budget in the Senate.  Reid and Obama say no.  The only thing that has changed is that the no has taken on a different cast.  Nothing substantive has changed.

[alfred russel]

I don't follow what you are saying...If we are playing chicken with a government shutdown due to a difference in budgeting priorities; I have no problem with that. A government shutdown isn't the same as a default.

What I'm saying is that your previous post just puts a different gloss on the status quo ante.  Obama says if we don't increase the debt limit it will be Armaggedon.  GOP says if you want to raise the debt limit you have to pass our budget in the Senate.  Reid and Obama say no.  The only thing that has changed is that the no has taken on a different cast.  Nothing substantive has changed.

Well no...it isn't status quo ante. First, the debt limit has been negotiated. Obviously not raising the limit is a default, and obviously that is Armaggedon. That is a terrible precedent, and I'm not sure where it ends. That rubican has been crossed.

Second, just the threat of a default--even if it is just missing a couple payments which are made up at a later date--is going to affect interest rates. I'd say even at this point, but certainly the longer this goes on, people are going to begin looking at government debt as potentially unstable during parts of the calendar. It isn't the kind of thing that helps keep a currency as the world's reserve currency (admittedly our major rival is doing its best to exit the competition atm).

[dps]

Worked for Clinton.  He was able to sell the public on the idea that the shutdown was the fault of Gingrich and the Congressional Republicans.

Gingrich and Clinton scratched the paint on the National Parks for two days.  They're playing for higher stakes now.

Well, the stakes may be higher, but the fact is, the public blamed Congress, and Gingrich caved.  IMO that doesn't have anything to do with Clinton or Gingrich;  in all but the most unusual circumstances, I think the public is more likely to blame Congress.

[MadImmortalMan]

Obviously not raising the limit is a default, and obviously that is Armaggedon.

Neither of those are obvious to me. As long as they keep paying the interest payments with current revenues, there's no default.