[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

I don't follow your logic.  If the Conservatives cannot form government why wouldn't a Conservative voter want to choose the party they think is the lesser of two evils to be the party who does?

[Josephus]

I don't think we have ever seen this dynamic in any other Federal election.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-election-forecast-2015/article25377958/

Nope. I've been voting for 30 years now, and this is the first time I've ever seen an election this impossible to gauge

[Barrister]

I don't follow your logic.  If the Conservatives cannot form government why wouldn't a Conservative voter want to choose the party they think is the lesser of two evils to be the party who does?

Because in a minority situation the two parties are supporting each other in any event.

[Josephus]

It's looking increasingly likely that no one will form a majority. So the question is can the NDP and Liberals form a government? In the past, the NDP has been unwilling to move to the centre to accommodate that...but now it shouldn't be so hard for the NDP to swing back left and support the Liberals. I don't know...too many tangibles. Too close to call. In all likelihood we'll have to wait for the B.C. votes to actually mean something this time.

[crazy canuck]

I don't follow your logic.  If the Conservatives cannot form government why wouldn't a Conservative voter want to choose the party they think is the lesser of two evils to be the party who does?

Because in a minority situation the two parties are supporting each other in any event.

Because it is not a coalition government.  Barring a majority Conservative government either the NDP or the Liberals will form government.  They will then need the support of the House to pass legislation just like the conservatives did when they had a minority.  I take it you concede that it is was important that the Conservatives formed a minority government rather than the other parties.

[crazy canuck]

Too close to call. In all likelihood we'll have to wait for the B.C. votes to actually mean something this time.

Maybe but I think whether any party can form a majority is going to be decided in Ontario.  By the time polls close in central Canada BC voters will perhaps be able to influence who has the most seats in a minority government.

[Josephus]

Heard of two new polls this a.m. that indicate Harper moving into majority territory. Not surprised, but still 

[Grey Fox]

It's the Hijab thing & the refugees. Even I think the NDP position is crazy.

[Barrister]

Heard of two new polls this a.m. that indicate Harper moving into majority territory. Not surprised, but still 

I was just going to post one of them

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/09/24/conservatives-swing-into-lead-close-in-on-majority-government-new-poll-suggests.html

We shall see if other polls confirm this.  It's a pretty big swing in an election that has seen very little movement, but obviously I'm hopeful.

And tonight if a French debate.  Everyone will be gunning for Mulcair, as the NDP is leading in Quebec.  This also sees the inclusion of Duceppe.  Huge if, but if the BQ can start showing signs of life that seriously impairs the NDP's chance at government.

[Valmy]

I guess I shouldn't be so surprised support for the NDP is dropping off as people start to get serious about who they are going to vote for.

[crazy canuck]

I am not surprised by the swing.  I get there is a sense that there has been a large pool of undecided voters that beginning to decide who they will support. Or it could just be I think everyone is like me.

[Barrister]

I guess I shouldn't be so surprised support for the NDP is dropping off as people start to get serious about who they are going to vote for.

The same thing did not happen in Alberta though.  Perhaps showing why a longer campaign played to the Conservatives advantage (and for our foreign readers of this thread, the length of this campaign is almost unprecedented).

[Grey Fox]

Heard of two new polls this a.m. that indicate Harper moving into majority territory. Not surprised, but still 

I was just going to post one of them

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/09/24/conservatives-swing-into-lead-close-in-on-majority-government-new-poll-suggests.html

We shall see if other polls confirm this.  It's a pretty big swing in an election that has seen very little movement, but obviously I'm hopeful.

And tonight if a French debate.  Everyone will be gunning for Mulcair, as the NDP is leading in Quebec.  This also sees the inclusion of Duceppe.  Huge if, but if the BQ can start showing signs of life that seriously impairs the NDP's chance at government.

Tomorrow morning the NDP will be very worried about Quebec. BQ might not be in front but NDP will have lost significant number. Duceppe will hammer (he has to) that Mulcair is anti-loi 101, was Alliance Quebec lawyer & basically a probusiness right turncoat.

[viper37]

& basically a probusiness right turncoat.

that will be his coup de grâce.

[viper37]

Elizabeth May is getting better at French, good for her.  Though she's playing in the same electoral base as the NDP and the Bloc.  Too crowded for her.

Harper has been solid, deflecting most attacks.

Trudeau said of Mulcair he was pro-centralization.  Mulcair seemed lost on that one, I guess he did not expect this from Trudeau