[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[HVC]

Life's a bitch. His biggest political victory ever...and then....wham!

Best to go out on top, i suppose. Still ahrd hit to the NDP.

RIP

[Oexmelin]

@ CC: My guess is Mulcair (hence his absence from the temporary leadership). Acceptable for the new Quebec wing, good federalist credentials, Layton's right-hand man.

[crazy canuck]

@ CC: My guess is Mulcair (hence his absence from the temporary leadership). Acceptable for the new Quebec wing, good federalist credentials, Layton's right-hand man.

At least that is a better choice than Davies. 

[Josephus]

Layton's last words:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2011/08/22/pol-layton-last-letter.html

[Grallon]

Perhaps it would never have happened but I would have been curious to see how he would have behaved as Prime Minister.  Pity.




G.

[crazy canuck]

In an otherwise political letter I was touched that he would put this in and in such a depracating manner.  I think it says a lot about the man.

To other Canadians who are on journeys to defeat cancer and to live their lives, I say this: please don't be discouraged that my own journey hasn't gone as well as I had hoped. You must not lose your own hope. Treatments and therapies have never been better in the face of this disease. You have every reason to be optimistic, determined, and focused on the future. My only other advice is to cherish every moment with those you love at every stage of your journey, as I have done this summer.

[Barrister]

Anyone know if Olivia Chow speaks passable French?

If she does, and if she wanted it, you'd think even in the NDP she'd have a powerful argument to be the next NDP leader.

[Oexmelin]

To my knowledge, she does not speak French.

[crazy canuck]

Anyone know if Olivia Chow speaks passable French?

If she does, and if she wanted it, you'd think even in the NDP she'd have a powerful argument to be the next NDP leader.

I really dont think so.  Her language abilities aside I think especially in the NDP she would have a very weak argument that she should be the next leader based as it is on being the wife of the last leader.  Besides I always got the impression she was an adequate MP but no star.

I would hate to think that any political party would select its leaders in that way.

[Barrister]

Anyone know if Olivia Chow speaks passable French?

If she does, and if she wanted it, you'd think even in the NDP she'd have a powerful argument to be the next NDP leader.

I really dont think so.  Her language abilities aside I think especially in the NDP she would have a very weak argument that she should be the next leader based as it is on being the wife of the last leader.  Besides I always got the impression she was an adequate MP but no star.

I would hate to think that any political party would select its leaders in that way.

Wife of it's dead former leader.  It's worked before of course - think Benzhir Bhutto, Indira Ghandi, Corazon Aquino (and unlike those women she is actually an experienced politician in her own right).  Plus she has the multi-cultural (and female) cred that the NDP seems to like.

It was only an idea though - and given the strength of the NDP quebec Caucus I think French would be essential.

Not that the NDP should eb taking political strategy directions from me.

[Malthus]

I think whoever takes over the party is going to be set up for failure.

The recent success of the NDP was due, in part, to historic changes within Quebec and in part to the specific personality and charisma of Mr. Layton.

In the next election, the NDP leader is not going to have the particular concatenation of events that lead to the NDP sweeping Quebec going for them; and is unlikely to be able to match or surpass the political impact of Mr. Layton, earned during a lifetime of politics.

Chances are, the NDP will contract back to the status it enjoyed prior to the last election - a contraction for which the current leader will be blamed, fairly or not.

[Josephus]

well you guys have been saying that...with or without the word concatenation--- since the results of the last election, before Layton got sick. So we'll see.

No one's denying that the NDP's success was due in large part to Layton's charisma, but that's not to say it can't happen again  whenever Harper calls the next election. We'll see.

[crazy canuck]

well you guys have been saying that...with or without the word concatenation--- since the results of the last election, before Layton got sick. So we'll see.

No one's denying that the NDP's success was due in large part to Layton's charisma, but that's not to say it can't happen again  whenever Harper calls the next election. We'll see.

My guess is that without Layten to moderate things the NDP is going to go back to sounding more radical and will lose support as a result.

[Barrister]

well you guys have been saying that...with or without the word concatenation--- since the results of the last election, before Layton got sick. So we'll see.

No one's denying that the NDP's success was due in large part to Layton's charisma, but that's not to say it can't happen again  whenever Harper calls the next election. We'll see.

Well sure.

My own observations from the last 20-30 years is that sometimes a dramatic electin result does result in a permanent shift.  1993 resulted in a dramatic change with the destruction of the PCs and rise of Reform - and the PCs never did recover.

But more often, sudden breakthroughs result in a return to the normal patterns within an electin or two.  The ADQ, NDP Ontario, 1988 Manitoba Liberals, NB Confederation of Regions, all rose quickly, and fell just as quickly.

[crazy canuck]

But more often, sudden breakthroughs result in a return to the normal patterns within an electin or two.  The ADQ, NDP Ontario, 1988 Manitoba Liberals, NB Confederation of Regions, all rose quickly, and fell just as quickly.

On the other hand the BC Liberals destroyed the social credit party and went on to being the Ruling party here in BC.  The real question is whether the NPD will remain the viable alternative to the Conservatives in the mind of the voters. That question depends as much on the Liberals as the NDP.