[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

So we're supposed to have 3 more candidates for Conservative leader announce this week:

Leslyn Lewis - former political unknown when she surprised lots of people by coming in third in the 2020 leadership race, running on a hard social conservative message.  She's now an elected MP with increased credibility  Being a black woman might also help her.

Jean Charest - I think I forgot just how young he was when he first got into politics.  Yup, he would have been a cabinet minister in Mulroney's government at age 30 I think.  Then went on to be the PC leader back when the party had 2 seats, then moved to provincial politics in Quebec joining the Liberals.  That's going to be hard for some to overlook.  Lots of experience, but that comes with lots of baggage.  I guess I won't rule him out but not enthused.

Patrick Brown - so I mean I know of him, but I don't really know him.  Former Ontario PC Leader, forced out because of a sex scandal?  I gather he continues to deny the allegations though.  Is now a mayor so I guess the allegations aren't quite that damaging.  I dunno, he's a blank slate to me.  How is his French?

And of course Pierre Poilievre.  Likely front-runner, has taken the lead in Parliament on a few topics.  I have loved his very effective cross-examination style questioning on some committee meetings.  I have less loved his embrace of the "truckers".  French name could help him, even though his first language is English.

So I think we'll see how this one turns out.  Consider me undecided.

[Grey Fox]

With that Lineup, expect a collapse of the Quebec conservative support.

[Barrister]

With that Lineup, expect a collapse of the Quebec conservative support.

They only got 18% of the vote last time around in Quebec.  Other than Lewis I'm not sure how any of the three would do much worse.

And it's a time-honoured tradition in leadership races to run to the base (so in this case the right), then pivot to the middle for the general election.  It's all in how well you can execute the pivot.

[Sheilbh]

Patrick Brown - so I mean I know of him, but I don't really know him.  Former Ontario PC Leader, forced out because of a sex scandal?  I gather he continues to deny the allegations though.  Is now a mayor so I guess the allegations aren't quite that damaging.  I dunno, he's a blank slate to me.  How is his French?

I am only aware of him because of this post by Yuan Yi Zhu:

Yuan Yi Zhu
@yuanyi_z
The case for abolishing every youth wing of every political party everywhere, in one picture.

He is absolutely right on abolishing them all

[Jacob]

Yeah I'm watching with great interest. My take - fairly superficial at this point:

Leslyn Lewis - not enthused by the social conservative angle. On the other hand, I expect the Canadian voting public is similarly unenthused, so I think she'll only win the general if the Libs fuck up.

Jean Charest - probaly the biggest threat to the Liberals. I expect that he can pull in more of the suburban / soft Liberal voters in key ridings that's necessary for a Conservative government. The question is whether he can win enough of the internal Conservative Party constituencies to win, and whether he can avoid yet another Prairie splinter party from the people who'll accuse him of being indistinguishable from the Liberals.

Patrick Brown - don't know anything about him. The sex scandal thing is obviously a weak point, whether it's legitimate or not.

Pierre Poilievre - I developed a fairly visceral dislike of him based on his embrace of the trucker convoy; and nothing I've learned of him has changed my mind since. He seems fairly invested in the abrasive, culture war stream of Conservative politics. On the upside, it means Canadians will have a clear choice. Personally, he's very much on the "do not want" side of things for me and I think (hope) that that's true for enough of Canadian voters that he's unlikely to win the general.

[Barrister]

Pierre Poilievre - I developed a fairly visceral dislike of him based on his embrace of the trucker convoy; and nothing I've learned of him has changed my mind since. He seems fairly invested in the abrasive, culture war stream of Conservative politics. On the upside, it means Canadians will have a clear choice. Personally, he's very much on the "do not want" side of things for me and I think (hope) that that's true for enough of Canadian voters that he's unlikely to win the general.

I don't think that's entirely an accurate take on PP.  Other than the trucker convoy stuff (which I think is a real mistake) I don't associate him with "culture war" issues at all - I can't think of him really commenting on free speech/"cancel culture", or religious symbols, or immigration, or any other "culture war" issue I can think of.  He says he's pro-choice, voted in favour of the conversion therapy ban.  He's more typically been a lead voice on corruption or fiscal issues.

Does he come across as abrasive?  Yes.  But that's more a matter of style than substance.

If you have some time, google Pierre Poilievre and WE Charity.  There exists some video clips of PP really giving it to both the founders, and Justin Trudeau - not by making long speeches like most politicians do, but by asking pointed yes or no questions.  He's certainly abrasive (and you might want to punch him in the face), but I don't think you can deny it is effective.

[Jacob]

I don't think that's entirely an accurate take on PP.  Other than the trucker convoy stuff (which I think is a real mistake) I don't associate him with "culture war" issues at all - I can't think of him really commenting on free speech/"cancel culture", or religious symbols, or immigration, or any other "culture war" issue I can think of.  He says he's pro-choice, voted in favour of the conversion therapy ban.  He's more typically been a lead voice on corruption or fiscal issues.

That's probably fair, but it's the first impression he made on me - and I wager, on a number of other Canadians. This will probably stand him in good stead in the leadership election (as part of the leaning to the right strategy), but it might linger for too long afterwards (during the tacking to the centre phase).

Does he come across as abrasive?  Yes.  But that's more a matter of style than substance.

If you have some time, google Pierre Poilievre and WE Charity.  There exists some video clips of PP really giving it to both the founders, and Justin Trudeau - not by making long speeches like most politicians do, but by asking pointed yes or no questions.  He's certainly abrasive (and you might want to punch him in the face), but I don't think you can deny it is effective.

I'm willing to take your word for it. I expect that if I aligned with his politics, I might enjoy his style. Depending on the theme and focus of the next election, being effective like that could stand him in good stead.

Problem for me is that I found the convoy terrible and am unable to forgive him being front and centre there (same for anyone. Very unimpressed with Scheer as well).

[viper37]

So we're supposed to have 3 more candidates for Conservative leader announce this week:

1)
Leslyn Lewis - former political unknown when she surprised lots of people by coming in third in the 2020 leadership race, running on a hard social conservative message.  She's now an elected MP with increased credibility  Being a black woman might also help her.

2)
Jean Charest - I think I forgot just how young he was when he first got into politics.  Yup, he would have been a cabinet minister in Mulroney's government at age 30 I think.  Then went on to be the PC leader back when the party had 2 seats, then moved to provincial politics in Quebec joining the Liberals.  That's going to be hard for some to overlook.  Lots of experience, but that comes with lots of baggage.  I guess I won't rule him out but not enthused.

3)
Patrick Brown - so I mean I know of him, but I don't really know him.  Former Ontario PC Leader, forced out because of a sex scandal?  I gather he continues to deny the allegations though.  Is now a mayor so I guess the allegations aren't quite that damaging.  I dunno, he's a blank slate to me.  How is his French?

4)
And of course Pierre Poilievre.  Likely front-runner, has taken the lead in Parliament on a few topics.  I have loved his very effective cross-examination style questioning on some committee meetings.  I have less loved his embrace of the "truckers".  French name could help him, even though his first language is English.

So I think we'll see how this one turns out.  Consider me undecided.

1) No. Too socially conservative.
2) Just, like, no.  CC might vote for him as there is no definitive proof beyond any reasonable doubt that he was corrupt or participated in the illegal financing o the Quebec Liberal Party.
3) No.  He is against Quebec Bill 21 and has supported the legal challenge from outside the province.
4) No.  He went all in on the populist bandwagon, I don't want that type of irrational leader for the country I live in.  If I wanted someone with no real vision of Canada except what is popular is some circles, I'd vote Trudeau.

[Barrister]

Just for Jacob since he takes an interest in AB politics, Kenney announced yesterday that he's temporarily suspending the gas tax due to high gas prices.

Now gas prices certainly have gone up a lot.  And the fact that high oil prices means Alberta can afford to do it certainly helps.

But I'm sure it's no co-incidence that he's facing a leadership vote next month...

And anyways - it's just bad public policy.  Why give the most rebate to people who buy the most gas?  Why not give it "Ralph bucks" style by cutting a check to everyone?  But whatever.

[Jacob]

Just for Jacob since he takes an interest in AB politics,

 

Kenney announced yesterday that he's temporarily suspending the gas tax due to high gas prices.

Now gas prices certainly have gone up a lot.  And the fact that high oil prices means Alberta can afford to do it certainly helps.

But I'm sure it's no co-incidence that he's facing a leadership vote next month...

And anyways - it's just bad public policy.  Why give the most rebate to people who buy the most gas?  Why not give it "Ralph bucks" style by cutting a check to everyone?  But whatever.

It's the kind of thing that's pretty transparent, but which I can usually forgive whatever side of the political spectrum it comes from. Not impressive, but personally I'm not going to hold it against him... but if someone can hold it against him in a political way, fair play to them.

Is Jean the primary challenger to Kenney?

[Barrister]

Is Jean the primary challenger to Kenney?

Probably.

But we're not at a leadership race yet.  There's a UCP convention in April and there's a vote on his leadership.  A majority "no" would trigger a leadership race - but sometimes in these things leaders have resigned even though they won the review, but not by very much.

[viper37]

Patrick Brown - don't know anything about him. The sex scandal thing is obviously a weak point, whether it's legitimate or not.

Seems like this was fake news by CTV:
CTV News expresses 'regrets' over story that ended Patrick Brown's leadership of Ontario's Progressive Conservatives

CTV News has expressed "regrets" over a 2018 story about then Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown with "factually incorrect" information that caused "harm" to his provincial political career.
In a settlement Wednesday, CTV acknowledged the story, which alleged sexual impropriety with two women, "required correction." After the story was broadcast, Brown strongly denied the allegations and filed an $8-million defamation suit against the network's parent company, Bell Media.
"Patrick Brown and CTV have resolved their legal dispute," according to a statement agreed upon by the two parties.

"On Jan. 24, 2018, four months before a provincial election, CTV broadcast a segment concerning Patrick Brown. Key details provided to CTV for the story were factually incorrect and required correction," it continues.
"CTV National News regrets including those details in the story and any harm this may have caused to Mr. Brown."
Both Brown and CTV said they would have no further comment on the settlement or any other terms.
The resolution ends four years of headline-making litigation and clears the way for Brown, who is now the mayor of Brampton, to seek the federal Conservative leadership.

On Tuesday, Brown confirmed to John Moore on Newstalk 1010 that he's exploring a bid to lead the federal party.

Brown was a Tory MP before jumping to provincial politics in 2015. He is regarded as one of the party's top organizers with a vast network of contacts across Canada, especially among cultural communities.
Sources told the Star he could enter the contest as early as this week.
So far, there are only two official candidates, MP Pierre Poilievre (Carleton) and MP Leslyn Lewis (Haldimand-Norfolk), who ran in 2020. Former Quebec premier and one-time federal Progressive Conservative leader Jean Charest is expected to announce his bid Thursday.
In January 2018, Brown stepped down as PC leader hours after CTV broadcast the story.
It was a dramatic night of regicide at Queen's Park, as Brown quit under pressure from caucus members who were concerned about their own prospects in the looming June 2018 campaign.
His successor as Ontario PC leader was Doug Ford, a one-term Toronto city councillor with no political experience at the provincial level. Ford was elected premier in a majority government, and is now seeking re-election on June 2.
While the CTV story cut short Brown's 2015-18 tenure as Tory leader, it did not end his political career.
In October 2018, he was elected mayor of Brampton, unseating incumbent Linda Jeffrey in an upset victory.
Brown's legal action argued the network "falsely, maliciously, unfairly and irresponsibly broadcast" a story that cost him his job as leader of the Opposition while Liberal Kathleen Wynne was premier.
In an emotional, 81-second news conference at Queen's Park on Jan. 24, 2018 — held just 15 minutes before the CTV story was broadcast — the distraught leader denied any wrongdoing.
But nearly all of his staff and campaign aides resigned that night, and he quit as party leader.
His lawyers argued Brown was "ambushed ... mere hours before" the newscast and "had no reasonable time to respond."
At the time, CTV reported that one of the women who alleged misconduct against Brown said she was in high school when she met him at a bar.
But the woman later revised her recollection, telling the network that she was 19 years old, not 18, at the time of the alleged encounter.
The entire episode is recounted in his autobiography, "Takedown: The Attempted Political Assassination of Patrick Brown."

Still not a palatable candidate due to his meddling in provincial affairs.

[Barrister]

So I'm a lawyer, and CTV's response was obviously drawn up by lawyers.  Some very careful language being used here.

CTV does not retract the story, but offers "regrets" and says "key details" were "factually incorrect" - but never spells out what those details are.

Also does not appear that any money was paid to Brown.

This is not an complete win for Brown.

[viper37]

So I'm a lawyer, and CTV's response was obviously drawn up by lawyers.  Some very careful language being used here.

CTV does not retract the story, but offers "regrets" and says "key details" were "factually incorrect" - but never spells out what those details are.

Also does not appear that any money was paid to Brown.

This is not an complete win for Brown.

It goes from underage sex to picking up a younger girl in a bar.
Imho, it makes a ton of difference.

[crazy canuck]

So I'm a lawyer, and CTV's response was obviously drawn up by lawyers.  Some very careful language being used here.

CTV does not retract the story, but offers "regrets" and says "key details" were "factually incorrect" - but never spells out what those details are.

Also does not appear that any money was paid to Brown.

This is not an complete win for Brown.

Agreed.  And from this article, the issue in dispute was whether he was given an opportunity to respond to the reporter before the story was published.  If that occurred, then the news organization has a complete defense.  If not then they have to prove truth. 

This was a carefully crafted settlement which addressed the ability to respond issue only.  In his defence though (and I am sure the position of his lawyers) had the article been written after he had a fair chance to respond and that response was included in the published article, then the reputational damage may have been lessened.

But your main point stands, the fact that the allegations were made remains unresolved and will likely be (and should imo be) an issue has he tries to take the leadership of a federal party.

Politically I am not sure why he thinks he can pull this off.