[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Habbaku]

Yes, the CPC is trying to emulate the GOP & the Tea party strategy.

So, devolve to the lowest level of retard, then lose and blame it on fraud?

[Sheilbh]

Not that risky in the Canadian context. There's been a number of provinical elections since covid, and IIRC each one has returned the sitting government with a stronger hand.

Okay - maybe not.

I thought going for a snap election to improve your position from minority to majority government might not go down well with voters during a crisis. If it was just 4 years from the last election, I think that'd be fine but choosing an election during a pandemic might come across differently - but I could well be wrong in the Canadian context.

This could very much just be a British thing - but people generally dislike elections more than they dislike minority governments and have a history of punishing the party they hold responsible for having to vote again. So here it's something to be handled with care

[Grey Fox]

We've had 3 provincial elections in 2020. 2 were from minority governments. In both, they became majority. The 3rd one grew its majority.

[Barrister]

Not that risky in the Canadian context. There's been a number of provinical elections since covid, and IIRC each one has returned the sitting government with a stronger hand.

Okay - maybe not.

I thought going for a snap election to improve your position from minority to majority government might not go down well with voters during a crisis. If it was just 4 years from the last election, I think that'd be fine but choosing an election during a pandemic might come across differently - but I could well be wrong in the Canadian context.

This could very much just be a British thing - but people generally dislike elections more than they dislike minority governments and have a history of punishing the party they hold responsible for having to vote again. So here it's something to be handled with care

Any number of pollster will tell you Canadians don't want an election at pretty much anytime - but I've rarely seen a government punished for calling one.  Generally once an election is called people become focused on the actual issues, not the reason for the election in the first place.

The Liberals are doing fairly well in the polls, but there are still risks if they call an election.  Covid vaccines, no budget since 2019, WE Charity, people still being locked down... who knows.

[viper37]

Anyone know what the "jobs not ballots" thing is about?

Tons of political chatter that we're going to have a spring election - that's the "more concerned about his job" part.

Surely that'd be a very, very risky decision (purely from a political/perceptions angle) before you've broadly re-opened and got people inoculated?

I cannot imagine an easier attack line than someone going for an election in the middle of a crisis. At best it looks very opportunistic.

If we go in election this spring, and it's a strong possibility as the Libs are doing everything they can to provoke an election, the Libs will be re-elected.  Canadians will be unlikely to change administration during a pandemic and half the country will believe the lie that it was the "opposition's fault" for not making the govt work.

Corruption and lies are expected from the Liberal Party, as much as a scorpion is expected to sting and the people won't hold it against them.

[viper37]

Yes, the CPC is trying to emulate the GOP & the Tea party strategy.

No, it is not.

[Barrister]

Yes, the CPC is trying to emulate the GOP & the Tea party strategy.

No, it is not.

Actually, it's Grey Fox emulating the Liberal Party strategy - tie the Conservatives to Trump and the GOP as tightly as they can.

[Jacob]

Actually, it's Grey Fox emulating the Liberal Party strategy - tie the Conservatives to Trump and the GOP as tightly as they can.

I think that's going to be more effective than "Trudeau wants to save his job instead of doing his job."

Anyhow, if we do have an election I'm looking forward to hear the Conservative vision. The other day I saw O'Toole saying he would not cut foreign aid, but reframed it as a geopolitical tool to counter Chinese influence. That's reasonablish in my point of view, though I still expect he'd cut support for women's health et. al.

[crazy canuck]

Surely that'd be a very, very risky decision (purely from a political/perceptions angle) before you've broadly re-opened and got people inoculated?

I cannot imagine an easier attack line than someone going for an election in the middle of a crisis. At best it looks very opportunistic.

Not that risky in the Canadian context. There's been a number of provinical elections since covid, and IIRC each one has returned the sitting government with a stronger hand.

To add to Jacob's point, in BC the opposition party made exactly that argument.  The governing NDP won in a landslide.  The electorate was much more concerned about issues other than going to the polls during an election.  I suspect the same would be true in a national election. 

[crazy canuck]

Yes, the CPC is trying to emulate the GOP & the Tea party strategy.

So, devolve to the lowest level of retard, then lose and blame it on fraud?

The current leader went hard right to win the leadership, and then immediately went middle as much as he could.  He is no Trump.  But I am not so sure about his party being no GOP wanna be.

[Jacob]

I think part of it is that legitimate criticism and grumbling notwithstanding, we don't have strong narratives that "the government" (whether provincial or federal) really fucked up the response to Covid-19. I'd also hypothesize that a non-trivial part of the public finds "business as usual" messages comforting during the pandemic, including when it comes to politics - whether they take it to mean "things are under control" or "let's get on with it" or something else.

[crazy canuck]

I think part of it is that criticism and grumbling notwithstanding, we don't have strong narratives that "the government" (whether provincial or federal) really fucked up the response to Covid-19. I'd also hypothesize that a non-trivial part of the public finds "business as usual" messages comforting during the pandemic, including when it comes to politics - whether they take it to mean "things are under control" or "let's get on with it" or something else.

I agree.   I think the biggest risk for the Liberals calling an election is that there is no obvious election issue right now.  I think their real risk is on the left and that the NDP might come out of nowhere based on something that occurs during the campaign to take their vote, just like the Liberals did to the NDP when Trudeau was first elected.

[Jacob]

I agree.   I think the biggest risk for the Liberals calling an election is that there is no obvious election issue right now.  I think their real risk is on the left and that the NDP might come out of nowhere based on something that occurs during the campaign to take their vote, just like the Liberals did to the NDP when Trudeau was first elected.

Yeah, that's a possible route to Conservative victory. O'Toole remains relatively inoffensive and keeps his crackpots in line. Trudeau remains a bit bland, maybe stumbles on something. Singh gets his shit together, and enough Canadians go "hmmm, maybe the NDP's the ticket" to give the Tories a bunch of marginal seats.

But we'll see. No election called yet.

[crazy canuck]

I agree.   I think the biggest risk for the Liberals calling an election is that there is no obvious election issue right now.  I think their real risk is on the left and that the NDP might come out of nowhere based on something that occurs during the campaign to take their vote, just like the Liberals did to the NDP when Trudeau was first elected.

Yeah, that's a possible route to Conservative victory. O'Toole remains relatively inoffensive and keeps his crackpots in line. Trudeau remains a bit bland, maybe stumbles on something. Singh gets his shit together, and enough Canadians go "hmmm, maybe the NDP's the ticket" to give the Tories a bunch of marginal seats.

But we'll see. No election called yet.

I don't think that is going to be a viable scenario for the Conservatives.  Their support is concentrated in too limited a geographical area to have a real hope at forming government.  It is the Liberals to lose and the NDP to gain.  I don't see the conservative candidate coming up the middle in ridings outside Con strongholds.  More like the Libs and NDP splitting most of the vote and the Con candidate being an also ran.

edit: to give a concrete example, consider my riding.  It used to be a Con and even a Reform riding.  But times change.  The Liberals have won consistently taking close to 60% of the vote.  The Cons took 30% and the NDP and others the balance.

But provincially, most of the federal riding is represented by NDP MLAs.  I don't think there is a chance the Cons will go much above 30% support.  But the Liberal support could shift to the NDP. The riding already votes that way provincially.

[viper37]

But I am not so sure about his party being no GOP wanna be.

There is certainly a sizable minority that sees kinship with the GOP, past&present.
But so far, none of these people have managed to access to key position in the party, or in any conservative federal government.