[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

So odds are pretty good the Liberals or the Conservatives will win with a slim minority. And it's looking like, at least this week, the Conservatives will win the most seats.

But, I ask Languish, what do you think will happen then? Despite Singh's talk about a coalition, Canada hasn't had much, if any, of those, and has Justin even broached that?

Can the Conservatives get the support of Parliament to attempt at forming a government? Or is it likely that even with a few seats less, Trudeau will retain the prime ministership, based on the Greens and NDP agreeing to let the Liberals rule.

Thoughts?

I think if Conservatives win a strong minority thy will form government, and rely on opposition parties on a case-by-case basis.  Much like how Harper did his first term.

If Conservatives win a weak or narrow majority, the Liberals will attempt to maintain power.

Much will depend on how the final numbers bear out. Will Liberals + NDP equal a house majority?  I think it unlikely, but if so they may try a formal coalition.  If Liberals need to rely on either the Conservatives, or need to rely on combination of NDP, Bloc and whatever Greens or Independent, it's going to be rather unstable.

[viper37]

KINSELLA: Why Trudeau's popularity is plummeting
Warren Kinsella
Published:
October 17, 2019

The third and final reason that Trudeau is less popular than Trump is neatly, and expertly, mirrored in the Conservative Party's shrewd attack ad slogan: "Justin Trudeau. Not as advertised."

That pithy catchphrase, more than anything else, is why Trudeau is plumbing the polling depths, even more than Trump. Canadians have grown to believe that the former drama teacher is, indeed, just an actor.

Donald Trump, as detestable as he is to so many, is at least truthful about who he is. He doesn't hide it.

Justin Trudeau, meanwhile, wears blackface to parties.

Because he's never as comfortable as when he is wearing a mask.

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/kinsella-why-trudeaus-popularity-is-plummeting

Well, the attack ads do work in the US, because there's a stronger two party dynamics than what we have here today.  So if people intending to vote become distasted by one party, there's really two choices left: stay home, vote for the other guy.
Now, with 5-6 party dynamics, it's entirely possible that short and truthful message gets through the electors' mind, but they don't really see you as the alternative because there are 4 others courting them...

[viper37]

So odds are pretty good the Liberals or the Conservatives will win with a slim minority. And it's looking like, at least this week, the Conservatives will win the most seats.

But, I ask Languish, what do you think will happen then? Despite Singh's talk about a coalition, Canada hasn't had much, if any, of those, and has Justin even broached that?

Can the Conservatives get the support of Parliament to attempt at forming a government? Or is it likely that even with a few seats less, Trudeau will retain the prime ministership, based on the Greens and NDP agreeing to let the Liberals rule.

Thoughts?

Theoritically, the existing Prime Minister gets a chance to form a government, even if he has not a plurality of seats.  Then he negotiates a coallition or a piece-by-peace ( ) treaty with other political parties to ensure the Throne speech will be accepted.

Tradition wise, the PM should resign.  That's what happenned in the past.  Then the Conservatives can try to govern with support from at least one other party.  Forget the Liberals.  Forget the NDP.  That leaves the Greens and the Bloc.

The Bloc would ask for no pipeline in Quebec without the approval of the National Assembly. The Green Party would ask for no pipeline at all.
Both parties would ask for a tougher environmental platform.
The Bloc may demand a few candies for Quebec, like the devolution of CRTC powers to the Quebec government, so Blanchet can push his own candidates there and advance his post-politic financial interests (scratch my back, I'll scratch yours).  He'll ask for more cultural powers/money for Quebec, again, for his own self-interests.  The rest he'll pretend to ask and negotiate very hard for it, but drop them once he gets what he personally wants.

It really all depends on how much the Conservatives are willing to compromise on the environment, and the albertan pipeline.

Because there can be no conservative minority government and a pipeline.  There can be no conservative minority government and a strong environmental plan that includes the phasing out of oil and coal as an energy source. And I can't see that going too well with Alberta...

Imho, what will happen, is already happenning: some organizers from the LPC are already informally talking to some organizers of the NDP and the Greens: What about a coallition?  Don't say know, just yet, just listen...

And when the time comes, the party leaders will get involved.  A few compromises here and there.  Maybe a national drug plan that would add billions to the debt and cover 1/3 of the medications we (well, you, since I already have the provincial shitty plan, I don't need a federal shitty plan) need and increase drug prices tenfold. But they don't really care, they'll both be long gone by the time the worst effects are fully "realized" (actuarists and economists most likely have produced figures that have already been ignored).  They'll sweeten the pot, promise it'll be free, than ask 100$, 200$, 500$, 800$, 1000$ per year, 60$ per montgh, 30% franchise and once you get your prescription renewed for the 3rd time: "oh so sorry Mister, but that is no longered covered by the government program since we received directive XYZ about this medication)".

So, most likely issue: A Liberal minority government that gains informal support from the NDP and the Greens, totally sidelining the Bloc and, by extension, all of Quebec.  Years of misery ahead.  But all will be well in the best of worlds, people will pretend they are doing something about the environment while actually doing nothing and everybody will be happy, because it's a lot more popular than saying nothing and making some small effort.

[viper37]

coalitions are totally possible, just not with the Conservatives, who are alone.

Possible yes.  But I am not sure what the upside would be for the NDP.  They are gaining a lot of momentum and credibility.  They would have a real shot in the next election after a Conservative minority collapses.

the upside for the NDP is that some of their people will get government experience.  They'll be less vulnerable to attacks of the type "they ain't credible, they never governed, they never faced reality", etc, etc.

The real downside is for the Libs.  Once the NDP is normalized, once the troops are whipped in order of parade, they'll look respectable.  And then, they will have a real, terrible shot, at ruining our country for good in 4 years.

[viper37]

I don't think a coalition is possible.  If the Cons win the most seats they will probably form a minority government.

But doesn't he have to prove to the G-G that he has the support of the house? Otherwise the opposition can pull the plug within weeks, and the G-G tries to avoid that.

They need to meet the G-G with a formal proposal to win the approval of the House by the time the Throne speech is presented (within weeks).  If all leaders come out publicly and declare they will not support, not under any circumstances, a conservative minority government, then the G-G will turn the next leader and ask if he can win the confidence of the House.

[viper37]

I would vote Liberal if I were a Canucklehead.

You can forget everything nice I ever said about you.   

Allright, allright.

[viper37]

I don't think a coalition is possible.  If the Cons win the most seats they will probably form a minority government.

But doesn't he have to prove to the G-G that he has the support of the house? Otherwise the opposition can pull the plug within weeks, and the G-G tries to avoid that.

It is a tricky question.  By tradition the person with the most seats gets a chance.  But there is also a bit of a reverse onus in the sense that if the party who comes second can prove it has the confidence then they could be chosen to govern.

Constitutionally, it's up to the current PM to try and form a government first.  If he can show the G-G, even without a coallition, that he can gain the confidence of the House of Commons for the Throne's speech, he gets to keep his job.

As I said above, by tradition, the PM would resign if he did not have the plurality of seats.  Would he then defeat Scheer on his throne's speech and form a coallition only after that?  I kinda doubt it.

It really all depends on how well the other parties perform, if one can actually play King-maker, or if two are needed.

[Barrister]

There does not need to be a formal coalition.  Indeed there hasn't been a national coalition government for over 100 years.  Instead, what typically happens is the governing party relies on the fact that nobody wants another quick election, so they present bills that they know will generally be acceptable to the opposition.

[Josephus]

I would vote Liberal if I were a Canucklehead.

Can you get citizenship by Monday?

[Josephus]

There does not need to be a formal coalition.  Indeed there hasn't been a national coalition government for over 100 years.  Instead, what typically happens is the governing party relies on the fact that nobody wants another quick election, so they present bills that they know will generally be acceptable to the opposition.

This.

And that's what my original post was about. It's unlikely we'll have a coalition, we hardly ever have (I think World War 1 was the last time?). What we do have a lot of is minority governments, but as Viper said, constitutionally regardless of seats won, Trudeau gets first dibs, as sitting PM, at telling G-G. "look, the NDPs and Greens said they will back my minority gov't."

Traditionally, they tend to give the party with the plurality a chance, though. Will Green and Singh or the Bloc, agree to support a Conservative minority? I think they will, at least for six months or so.

I wish I didn't go to my Canada Politics courses at universtiy so hungover all the time.  But they were Mondays at 8 a.m.

[Valmy]

You got drunk on Sunday night? Hardcore man.

[Josephus]

You got drunk on Sunday night? Hardcore man.

Between the ages of 19-24 there were very few days I wasn't drunk.

[Grey Fox]

You got drunk on Sunday night? Hardcore man.

Between the ages of 19-24 there were very few days I wasn't drunk.

That was the life. I think I was high and/or drunk every night of my 18-21 life.

Sad that those posts are lost to history.

[Josephus]

You got drunk on Sunday night? Hardcore man.

Between the ages of 19-24 there were very few days I wasn't drunk.

That was the life. I think I was high and/or drunk every night of my 18-21 life.

Sad that those posts are lost to history.

I'm actually glad that there was no Internet, social media and forums back in my day to keep a record of that time.

The only thing I regret is that unlike today, we weren't snapping pictures every five minutes. Very few pictures of my good years exist.

[crazy canuck]

There does not need to be a formal coalition.  Indeed there hasn't been a national coalition government for over 100 years.  Instead, what typically happens is the governing party relies on the fact that nobody wants another quick election, so they present bills that they know will generally be acceptable to the opposition.

This.

And that's what my original post was about. It's unlikely we'll have a coalition, we hardly ever have (I think World War 1 was the last time?). What we do have a lot of is minority governments, but as Viper said, constitutionally regardless of seats won, Trudeau gets first dibs, as sitting PM, at telling G-G. "look, the NDPs and Greens said they will back my minority gov't."

Traditionally, they tend to give the party with the plurality a chance, though. Will Green and Singh or the Bloc, agree to support a Conservative minority? I think they will, at least for six months or so.

I wish I didn't go to my Canada Politics courses at universtiy so hungover all the time.  But they were Mondays at 8 a.m.

Didnt work that way in the last BC election.  Like I said before, it is more complicated and will depend a lot on what the final seat count turns out to be.