[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

I thought Greens would do better, not that I care much for them, but still. 338 still has them at 3.9 seats with a +- of  2.9

many thought this would be their breakout year.

The environment isn't as important to electors as people say it is.

Yeah, that is the lesson to be learned 

Let's see.

• One party promises action on climate at the cost of everything else, with a generally centrist agenda.  Low score.
• One party makes vague promises on climate, no targets, boost oil&gaz exploitation, with a generally right wing agenda.  High score.
• One party has governed with the same "insufficient" targets of the previous governing party and managed to miss it.  High score.
• One party has promised the moon and everyone knows it can't deliver.  High score in Quebec.
• One party promises to take care of the environment, among other things, by crippling our economy and telling electors what they want to hear.  Medium score.

The environment has been talked about early on in the campaign, but ever since the first french debate, it hasn't been much of an issue.  Why, do you think, isn't the Liberal party hammering that every day, every talking point, in every line of their speeches?

What am I supposed to take away from this?

[viper37]

We are never going to convince the core climate deniers in the Conservative party.  And so long as people like BB look the other way and stick to their tribe the Conservatives are always going to have a core vote in the 30% range.

I believe BB said he would vote Green as a protest vote, so you shouldn't single him out, that is unfair.  Not that someone looking the other way on political corruption and voting Liberal would understand that, though.

That they may form government speaks to the frailties of a fptp electoral system, not that people don't think climate change is an important issue.

At 31%, equal to the Libs, it's more than the frailties of a fptp electoral system.

Anyway.  I'll know tomorrow morning.  The results will likely be too late for me.

Oh, btw, the extremely racist country of Algeria has just forbidden the niqab and the burka for its government employees...  I expect the Globe & Mail to devote an editorial page on how racist this country has become, or at liest some opinion piece...

[viper37]

The conservatives are disqualified from being a serious political party based on their environmental "plan" alone.

Don't forget the Cap
Conservatives have a very weak (nearly non existent) environmental platform and they cling to oil&gaz instead of pushing for Alberta to diversify its economy.

A carbon tax had no real effect on BC's economy because it is well diversified.  On the scale of Canada, I think it would be the same, mostly neutral, at the proposed level.  But it would also be insufficient to reduce our GHG emissions.
Anyway.  The rest of the Conservatives' platform is mostly fine, but the energy corridor will be of no use to Quebec since the Ontarians prefer to ask for Federal money to renovate their nuclear plants instead of buying our electricity.  Then they'll complain we're dependant on equalization payments...  Oh well.  Business as usual in English Canada.

I would have voted Bloc this time, but they chose to elect that hypocrite moron as their leader.  No f* way I'm voting for that guy.

[viper37]

You folks back East can wait past midnight your time to see the early BC results roll in.  We will all probably have to wait a couple of weeks to see the final seat count after recounts and perhaps longer to see who will form government.

I doubt it will be that close.

Minority Conservative government, if the Liberal resigns.
If Trudeau chooses to form an alliance with the NDP, then it's something else.

[crazy canuck]

A carbon tax had no real effect on BC's economy because it is well diversified. 

It had the effect of reducing carbon emissions.   

[viper37]

A carbon tax had no real effect on BC's economy because it is well diversified. 

It had the effect of reducing carbon emissions.   

Actually, global GHG emissions are increasing in BC:
http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/soe/indicators/sustainability/ghg-emissions.html


Per capita GHG emissions were decreasing before the tax and have later stabilized:


While there is a sharp drop in 2008 after the carbon tax implementation, one could also argue that the global recession that hit us was responsible for that decline... a similar decline as everywhere in Canada, carbon tax or no tax.

[crazy canuck]

 

Those show it is decreasing

You need to account for the economic and population growth during the same time in B.C.

Edit you also need to account for the last government's decision to stop the gradual increases

[viper37]

Those show it is decreasing

You need to account for the economic and population growth during the same time in B.C.

Edit you also need to account for the last government's decision to stop the gradual increases

look for after 2012.  Between 2007 and 2016 emissions were reduced by 3,5%.
Between 2007 and 2017, emissions were reduced by 0,5%.

If you look at per capita emission, you see them stabilizing somewhere around 2014-2016 (hard to tell without the actual data).

The economic increase is everywhere in Canada and you'll see similar figures for the entire country (I've already posted them).  Alberta increased its emissions much, much more though.  But everyone picked up the pace after the recession, tax or no tax.

I hear the current ontarian govt isn't too keen on the global warming war either...  Wonder how Ontarians will vote in the Federal election.

[crazy canuck]

Viper we discussed this a while back and I linked an analysis of this very question.  Bottom line the BC tax worked.  I don't want to reinvent the wheel with you.

[saskganesh]

Only 1/3 of Ontario will vote Conservative. The provincial government is not popular.

Expecting a NDP win in my riding. Voting Green, as I think the margin will be large enough to unseat the Grit.

[saskganesh]

the night begins, Grits leading in Newfoundland. I'm off to the bar.

[Josephus]

CBC just called it: Trudeau will win the election in some form.

[Barrister]

CBC just called it: Trudeau will win the election in some form.

Feels a touch early for that call IMO.  It seems probable, but I don't think you can call it.

[Josephus]

CBC just called it: Trudeau will win the election in some form.

Feels a touch early for that call IMO.  It seems probable, but I don't think you can call it.

They just called it as a Liberal Minority now. Other networks doing the same.

[viper37]

Viper we discussed this a while back and I linked an analysis of this very question.  Bottom line the BC tax worked.  I don't want to reinvent the wheel with you.

and again, you need to compare with other jurisdictions that had no carbon tax.  Alberta had a tax for 4 years and it didn't curb their emissions, the low price of oil did that.  As technology becomes more affordable, companies seek to lower their costs and have had long term plans a long time before the carbon tax implementation.  And like I said, it's not like BC's economy is near totally dependant on oil.

Meanwhile, I've read a wild prediction today that the "fossile economy" would end by 2028, due to low prives of solar and wind generated power.  I have huge doubts about it, though, even if the basic assumption is true, I have doubt oil can be so easily replaced in such a short time.

In another subject, I voted Green.  I believe my current MP (Conservative) is going to be re-elected, by I haven't been home at all until now and I haven't checked to see if it's projected or elected.

It seems, again, we have a government of Toronto.  Our Ontarian members will be happy.

Quebec city + Beauce (Bernier is defeated) + my riding are staying Conservatives, quickly, from what I see, no gain, no loss for the party.

If they're smart, maybe they'll listen and actually understand the message this time.  Harper should have stayed