[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[garbon]

Zogby is not exactly top-tier pollsters...

But yeah, Trudeau is not as popular as Trump. Kind of apples and oranges though. The US only has 2 viable parties.

It's comparable because it's not asking about voting intention, but rather favourable/unfavourable.

I don't know it kind of reminds me of that small bit on SNL about Biden supporters vs Trump supporters.

GWEN: She's looking for a candidate that can beat Donald Trump.

BIDEN: Oh, you mean the guy who actually bragged about assault on tape?

ADVISOR: Yes, but unlike his voters, your voters actually care.

[crazy canuck]

Maybe it is just like people prefer to have flexibility when voting.

Perhaps, but presumably the desire for flexibility remains roughly constant over time.  I think a better explanation is that advance polls were open at universities for, iirc, the first time.

[Zoupa]

Zogby is not exactly top-tier pollsters...

But yeah, Trudeau is not as popular as Trump. Kind of apples and oranges though. The US only has 2 viable parties.

It's comparable because it's not asking about voting intention, but rather favourable/unfavourable.

People associate party loyalty with popularity of the leader everywhere in the world.

It stands to reason that Trudeau would be less popular in a context with 5 big parties.

Same thing in France for example. Trump is more popular than Macron.

As I said, apples and oranges.

[Josephus]

So odds are pretty good the Liberals or the Conservatives will win with a slim minority. And it's looking like, at least this week, the Conservatives will win the most seats.

But, I ask Languish, what do you think will happen then? Despite Singh's talk about a coalition, Canada hasn't had much, if any, of those, and has Justin even broached that?

Can the Conservatives get the support of Parliament to attempt at forming a government? Or is it likely that even with a few seats less, Trudeau will retain the prime ministership, based on the Greens and NDP agreeing to let the Liberals rule.

Thoughts?

[crazy canuck]

I don't think a coalition is possible.  If the Cons win the most seats they will probably form a minority government.

[saskganesh]

  I think a better explanation is that advance polls were open at universities for, iirc, the first time.

I did not know that. wow.

[saskganesh]

coalitions are totally possible, just not with the Conservatives, who are alone.

[crazy canuck]

coalitions are totally possible, just not with the Conservatives, who are alone.

Possible yes.  But I am not sure what the upside would be for the NDP.  They are gaining a lot of momentum and credibility.  They would have a real shot in the next election after a Conservative minority collapses.

[Josephus]

I don't think a coalition is possible.  If the Cons win the most seats they will probably form a minority government.

But doesn't he have to prove to the G-G that he has the support of the house? Otherwise the opposition can pull the plug within weeks, and the G-G tries to avoid that.

[Grey Fox]

A minority government will give us another election in 18 months.

[viper37]

and the thing that has everyone talking is climate change.

and yet, the Greens aren't moving the needle by much.  2,3 MPs in BC, maybe?

[viper37]

Anyway.  I think I'll be voting PPC.  One candidate is having a very convincing argument on Instagram:
Not 100% safe for work, there's too much red in the picture (or not enough for some...)

[viper37]

I feel Obama's involvement was in poor taste.

I'm not exactly a Trudeau fanboy, but I don't care very much about one word from an ex politician.  It's not like he's buying ads in Canada, making repetitive Facebook posts, trying to disguise the origin of pro-Liberal memes, employ agent to promote the election of a moron so the US would stand to gain more, you know, the kind of things that actually mean something?

And endorsement? Bah.  It's not like Chrétien saying he prefers the other JC to run things over here while never actually saying it himself, just pouring money into it and sending his MPs and his people to give a hand.

[Admiral Yi]

I would vote Liberal if I were a Canucklehead.

[crazy canuck]

I don't think a coalition is possible.  If the Cons win the most seats they will probably form a minority government.

But doesn't he have to prove to the G-G that he has the support of the house? Otherwise the opposition can pull the plug within weeks, and the G-G tries to avoid that.

It is a tricky question.  By tradition the person with the most seats gets a chance.  But there is also a bit of a reverse onus in the sense that if the party who comes second can prove it has the confidence then they could be chosen to govern.