[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

The story seems to have died already, so probably the correct political judgment.

[Barrister]

The story seems to have died already, so probably the correct political judgment.

We shall see.  I think the political ads almost write themselves - play some 2015-era clips about Trudeau promising openness, transparency and "sunny ways", and contrast it with what has happened here.  A heavy-handed shutdown of any further inquiry may work for Trudeau, but at the cost of his political brand and image.

And the story is bound to come up again.  JWR made it clear there was more she had to say, but was prevented from doing so due to cabinet confidentiality that Trudeau refused to lift.  Whomever from JWR's camp that keeps talking to the Globe could always talk some more.

Plus, you have the SNC Lavalin case itself that is still going, plus the Admiral Norman case that touches on some of the same issues.

[crazy canuck]

The story seems to have died already, so probably the correct political judgment.

We shall see.  I think the political ads almost write themselves - play some 2015-era clips about Trudeau promising openness, transparency and "sunny ways", and contrast it with what has happened here.  A heavy-handed shutdown of any further inquiry may work for Trudeau, but at the cost of his political brand and image.

I think that argument isn't going to resonate much.  The better approach is contrasting sunny ways with cabinet resignations.  Ending the committee's work is too technical an argument for anyone to really care about.

[viper37]

The story seems to have died already, so probably the correct political judgment.

A heavy-handed shutdown of any further inquiry may work for Trudeau, but at the cost of his political brand and image.

Well, let's see the polls: he's still leading over the Conservatives.  We are 6-7 months away from an election, the Libs have enough time to build up their ads with the "hidden conservative agenda" and gain the few points they need.  Winning by 10 MPs or 40 MPs does not matter that much.  Worst case scenario, he has a minority govt.

[Barrister]

The story seems to have died already, so probably the correct political judgment.

A heavy-handed shutdown of any further inquiry may work for Trudeau, but at the cost of his political brand and image.

Well, let's see the polls: he's still leading over the Conservatives.  We are 6-7 months away from an election, the Libs have enough time to build up their ads with the "hidden conservative agenda" and gain the few points they need.  Winning by 10 MPs or 40 MPs does not matter that much.  Worst case scenario, he has a minority govt.

Trudeau is trailing the conservatives by 3 points.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

The outcome of an election is very much up in the air - 3 points is incredibly slim, and it would depend how the vote breaks down in each individual riding.  But the worst case scenario is far from a Liberal minority - CBC assesses a 23% chance of a Conservative majority.

[crazy canuck]

The outcome of an election is very much up in the air - 3 points is incredibly slim, and it would depend how the vote breaks down in each individual riding.  But the worst case scenario is far from a Liberal minority - CBC assesses a 23% chance of a Conservative majority.

I agree that the resignations gave life to the Conservatives electoral hopes.  Now everything is going to depend on what happens during the election and particularly the policies the Conservatives advance. 

[Barrister]

The outcome of an election is very much up in the air - 3 points is incredibly slim, and it would depend how the vote breaks down in each individual riding.  But the worst case scenario is far from a Liberal minority - CBC assesses a 23% chance of a Conservative majority.

I agree that the resignations gave life to the Conservatives electoral hopes.  Now everything is going to depend on what happens during the election and particularly the policies the Conservatives advance.

Obviously it's very tight, and will depend on what happens over the next few months.

I disagree that specific policies brought forward by the Conservatives, or the Liberals, will do much to move the needle.  The complaints against Trudeau (and about Scheer) aren't really about policies, but character, competence, and ethics.

For what its worth, the NDP as the third party could potentially move the needle with an interesting policy approach (much like the then-third place Liberals under Trudeau did when he promised to run deficits).

[crazy canuck]

Ok, we will see how much Canadians care about climate change.  I suspect, outside Alberta, quite a lot.

[Barrister]

Ok, we will see how much Canadians care about climate change.  I suspect, outside Alberta, quite a lot.

Unfortunately, I disagree.  I think it's one of those issues that people tell pollsters they care about, but gets kind of factored out when it comes time to vote.  If voters did care more about climate change it would push the Conservatives to have a meaningful policy to combat it.

[crazy canuck]

The Conservatives are going to lose all the close seats in BC on that issue.  The only issue here is going to be whether the NDP can take the Liberal seats.  The wild card is Ontario.  They elected Ford after all.

[Barrister]

The Conservatives are going to lose all the close seats in BC on that issue.  The only issue here is going to be whether the NDP can take the Liberal seats.  The wild card is Ontario.  They elected Ford after all.

BC and Quebec.

BC is tough to say because you can have up to 4 viable candidates in some ridings, with the Greens showing some strength.  It's all going to come down to how the vote splits.  Current polling has the Conservatives leading the province 33%, Liberals 29%, NDP 21%, Greens 12%.

(by the way if voters care so much about climate change why are the Greens at only 12%)

And Quebec is even more confusing, with the Libs at 35%, Conservatives at 22%, Bloc at 17%, NDP at 12%, and Greens at 8%.  Unlike other provinces Quebec has shown a willingness to make large shifts in voting intentions.  WIll the NDP regain some of its magic there, or will its votes collapse further?  What about the Bloc vote?  Will the Conservatives be able to take much of the right-leaning, soft-nationalist vote that elected the CAQ?

https://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2019-canada-election/

Other regions seem more stable.  Atlantic remains Liberal, Prairies largely Conservative, and Conservatives set to make gains in Ontario.

[crazy canuck]

What riding in BC has four viable candidates?

There are ridings where the Conservatives have no shot and the battle is between the Liberals and NDP (Burnaby as an example).  There are ridings where the Conservatives could run a fence post and win (in the Bible belt of the Province) and there are ridings where the NDP battle the Conservatives and the Liberal candidate has no shot (the ridings North of the Fraser River and East of Greater Vancouver are good examples of that).  There are a handful of ridings where the Greens are viable and in those ridings the Conservatives have no shot.

 

[Barrister]

What riding in BC has four viable candidates?

There are ridings where the Conservatives have no shot and the battle is between the Liberals and NDP (Burnaby as an example).  There are ridings where the Conservatives could run a fence post and win (in the Bible belt of the Province) and there are ridings where the NDP battle the Conservatives and the Liberal candidate has no shot (the ridings North of the Fraser River and East of Greater Vancouver are good examples of that).  There are a handful of ridings where the Greens are viable and in those ridings the Conservatives have no shot.

Viable in that they parties are running at more than low single digits and really impact vote splitting.

[Malthus]

The Conservatives are going to lose all the close seats in BC on that issue.  The only issue here is going to be whether the NDP can take the Liberal seats.  The wild card is Ontario.  They elected Ford after all.

Provincial politics says little about federal politics, though. Ford got in because Ontarians wanted to throw out the existing provincial Liberals (and had good reason for this), not because Ontarians wanted Ford; the Conservatives benefited by vote-splitting on the left, when much Liberal support went to the NDP and some went to the Conservatives. 

[crazy canuck]

The Conservatives are going to lose all the close seats in BC on that issue.  The only issue here is going to be whether the NDP can take the Liberal seats.  The wild card is Ontario.  They elected Ford after all.

Provincial politics says little about federal politics, though. Ford got in because Ontarians wanted to throw out the existing provincial Liberals (and had good reason for this), not because Ontarians wanted Ford; the Conservatives benefited by vote-splitting on the left, when much Liberal support went to the NDP and some went to the Conservatives.

Where do the Federal Liberals sit in Ontario?