[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Razgovory]

I was thinking maybe if subtracting 42 from 100 is not your forte, you could focus on writing, but then you'd have to learn how to spell grade.

That is pretty embarrassing.

[viper37]

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/are-you-liberals-or-are-you-trudeaus-men-and-women/

Andrew MacDougall: If backbench Liberals are operating on blind faith in the PM about the SNC-Lavalin scandal, they are running out of time to pull their heads from the sand

[viper37]

Conservatives taking the lead in polls

[...]
If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would receive 40 per cent of the vote among decided voters, according to the poll of 1,002 Canadians conducted between March 25 and 27.

That's unchanged since Ipsos' last poll on March 4.

The Liberals would receive 30 per cent of the vote — down one point — while the NDP would receive 21 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois five per cent.

[...]

The province-by-province breakdown makes for worrying reading for the Liberals.

In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (40 per cent) have opened up a 12-point lead over the Liberals, who are tied with the NDP at 28 per cent.

The Tories also enjoy a double-digit lead in British Columbia, where the Liberals and NDP are in a scrap for second place.

Alberta looks to be a foregone conclusion, with the Conservatives (63 per cent) light-years ahead of the Liberals (17 per cent) and NDP (15 per cent).

"When you take a look at where the Conservatives are leading, they're now leading everywhere you need to lead," Bricker said. "They really don't need anything else to beat the Liberals."

Indeed, the only province in which the Liberals are in pole position is Quebec, where they have the support of 38 per cent of respondents.

However, the Conservatives (25 per cent) and Bloc Quebecois (23 per cent) appear to have enough strength to prevent the Liberals from truly taking advantage of their Quebec share as they did in 2015.

The NDP, with only 12 per cent of the vote support, is poised to lose most if not all of its seats in Quebec. But it's not the Liberals who stand to gain from Quebecers deserting the NDP, Bricker said.

"These are not people who are Liberal-NDP switchers. These are probably Bloc Quebecois voters who couldn't vote Bloc last time because of all the problems they were having, combined with people who voted for the Coalition Avenir Quebec," Bricker said.

Compounding the Liberals' misery is the fact that their leader is now bleeding support among some of the core constituencies that helped sweep him to power in 2015.

Forty per cent of women now say they would vote Conservative, compared to just 28 per cent for the Liberals (the Tories enjoy a similar lead among men).

Among younger voters aged 18 to 34, the Conservatives (34 per cent) hold a slight lead over the Liberals (31 per cent).

The only key subset among which the Liberals lead is the university-educated, with 44 per cent approval compared to 30 per cent for Conservatives.

"What's happened is that the brand that Trudeau had — he had a strong appeal among young people, and there was a gender gap that worked in his favour — all seems to be gone," Bricker said.
[...]

I had a really crappy day, that started very badly, until now.  Now, I am smiling for the first time today...

Note that Conservatives are leading in BC... this is weird.  Very weird.

Anyway.  There's still 6 months left before the election, hopefully the Conservatives will take a hint and position themselves as something else than "not Trudeau".

[crazy canuck]

Province wide results don't tell us much.  If you were to tell me that the Conservatives are ahead in the seat rich urban areas of BC and Ontario, that would be surprising and it would mean the Conservatives would almost certainly win the Federal election.

[Grey Fox]

I don't want to live in this timeline anymore.

[crazy canuck]

I don't want to live in this timeline anymore.

Yeah, this election is likely to have the lowest voter participation in history - which would also favour the Conservatives. 

Sorry to further ruin your day.   

[Grey Fox]

I don't understand how can the RoC & viper seriously consider Scheer & the conservative party. The party of evil men.

[viper37]

Province wide results don't tell us much. 

To determine the result of the election, you are absolutely right.  And in any case, such polls have somewhere around 1500 participants across Canada.
At the province level, it gives a very low sample to make accurate predictions.

I don't think pollsters and political parties invest in detailed polls so far away from the election date.

It is only showing a national and a less precise provincial trend that the Libs are suffering from their management of the crisis.

Silencing JWR and trying to smear her totally backfired.

[crazy canuck]

Silencing JWR and trying to smear her totally backfired.

We shall see, some of what I referred to when this first started is beginning to come out now.

[viper37]

I don't understand how can the RoC & viper seriously consider Scheer & the conservative party. The party of evil men.

I would have voted Bloc had they not done the very stupid thing of selecting YFB as their leader.  Anybody but him.

Scheer is the least worst of our options.  Trudeau hates Quebecers unless they speak english or give him money.  He has to be the worst PM since his father.  He is totally against bilinguism unless it means English & French or English only.  He dislikes the seperate school system of English Canada that allows French Canadians to study in their language.  He didn't raise a finger to condemn Ontario's move to shut down the university project and remove the commissionner to French language rights.  And he won't budge an inch for Ford's next moves either.

Traditionally, the Liberal party has always supported anglo-Quebecers rights but never helped French Canadians minorities in the same way.

At least, the Conservatives are honest: they won't help anyone fight their battles on provincial turf.

[crazy canuck]

Out of curiosity, what do you say the Federal government can do when a Province makes a decision about education which is within Provincial jurisdiction to make?   To be clear I don't agree with the decision, but I am unclear what role the Feds could or should have played in that situation.

[viper37]

Out of curiosity, what do you say the Federal government can do when a Province makes a decision about education which is within Provincial jurisdiction to make?   To be clear I don't agree with the decision, but I am unclear what role the Feds could or should have played in that situation.

about the same as they did with Alliance Quebec.  Increase funding to contestation groups.  Increase pressure on the govt.  Threaten to withhold higher education federal transfer or even actually do it.  Say they stand to support language minorities all accross Canada.  Have Federal Liberal MPs participate in local protests.

Basically what the Federal Liberal party did for many years to Quebec. 

[Grey Fox]

I don't understand how can the RoC & viper seriously consider Scheer & the conservative party. The party of evil men.

I would have voted Bloc had they not done the very stupid thing of selecting YFB as their leader.  Anybody but him.

Scheer is the least worst of our options.  Trudeau hates Quebecers unless they speak english or give him money.  He has to be the worst PM since his father.  He is totally against bilinguism unless it means English & French or English only.  He dislikes the seperate school system of English Canada that allows French Canadians to study in their language.  He didn't raise a finger to condemn Ontario's move to shut down the university project and remove the commissionner to French language rights.  And he won't budge an inch for Ford's next moves either.

Traditionally, the Liberal party has always supported anglo-Quebecers rights but never helped French Canadians minorities in the same way.

At least, the Conservatives are honest: they won't help anyone fight their battles on provincial turf.

So the solution is casting your lot with the same people the White supremacist & religious zealots are going to vote for?

[crazy canuck]

Basically what the Federal Liberal party did for many years to Quebec.

Your solution is that the Feds should do all the things you think are wrong?

[viper37]

So the solution is casting your lot with the same people the White supremacist & religious zealots are going to vote for?

When you put it that way...

Yes, they will support the same political party as I.  I'm used to it.  I can't change it.  The leadership of the party certainly encourage the religious zealot, although Harper did a good job avoiding the worst, despite his personal religious zeal.  However, it never promoted any kind of far right ideas and effectively shut down any racism in its ranks, just like the CAQ and the ADQ did in the past.

If you ever voted PQ, that was, for a long time, the political party where the white supremacists would vote.  The Hell's Angels and the Italian mafia always supported the Liberal Party and Federalism.  Didn't bother half the population to vote NO in 1995.

If you ever voted Quebec Solidaire or NDP, all the communists and various assortment of anti-democratic far left antifa scumbags voted for these parties along you.  Did you ever lose sleep over that?  I guess not