[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

Just remember we still have Kevin O'Leary threatening to run for Conservative Party leader.

I had successfully put that from my mind.  Thanks! 

[crazy canuck]

I imagine it maybe more difficult for a Canadian Trump to take over leadership of a major party, in the absence of US style primary elections.  But once that is achieved, it only takes, what, 35% of the people voting for one party to win the premiership in a first past the post system.

Maybe, maybe not.

The leadership of Canadian political parties are decided by the membership of those parties.  Trudeau was elected Liberal leader by 104,000 voters.  Because party members tend to have more loyalty to the party itself it can somewhat insulate the party from wild swings.  But because party memberships are available for very small membership fees (and indeed the Liberals did away with the fees) it also means a comparatively small, but dedicated group could "take over" an existing party.

Except that they would have to be organized in every riding association.

[Valmy]

My confidence has been shaken, because I also had some confidence that Americans would not, either.

I wonder what in the last twenty years gave you that confidence in us. This was a long time coming.

I (and I think many Canadians), quite wrongly I suppose, thought that Trump and other wacko extremists were a small but vocal minority and that most Americans, including most Republicans, were not really into that.

The fact they kept winning elections over and over again for the past eight years, throwing establishment Republicans aside, should have clued you guys in.

[crazy canuck]

My confidence has been shaken, because I also had some confidence that Americans would not, either.

I wonder what in the last twenty years gave you that confidence in us. This was a long time coming.

I (and I think many Canadians), quite wrongly I suppose, thought that Trump and other wacko extremists were a small but vocal minority and that most Americans, including most Republicans, were not really into that.

The fact they kept winning elections over and over again for the past eight years, throwing establishment Republicans aside, should have clued you guys in.

Yeah, every American saw this coming, especially the pollsters.  You guys were really on the ball.

[Valmy]

Yeah, every American saw this coming, especially the pollsters.  You guys were really on the ball.

Hey I was super nervous about this thing for a reason. Our governor mobilized the national guard, at my expense, because he needed to appease his base that Obama was not going to put Texas under martial law during routine military exercises.

And even those who thought Hillary would win showed it was going to be close. If the wacko extremists were a small and vocal minority it would have been a landslide.

[Barrister]

Just remember we still have Kevin O'Leary threatening to run for Conservative Party leader.

Kevin O'Leary is bombastic and full of bluster like Trump, but as O'Leary's mother is a Lebanese immigrant I don't think the anti-immigration stances would last muster with him.

Yeah, much like Trump it's not precisely clear what the heck O'Leary stands for, but he's not an exact Trump clone either.

But there is room to take a harder line on immigration without the racist language Trump used.  Whether O'Leary wants to take that angle or not I have no idea.

[Malthus]

The fact they kept winning elections over and over again for the past eight years, throwing establishment Republicans aside, should have clued you guys in.

Maybe so.

But the inside politics of a foreign country are hard to read. I don't live there, all I know is from what I read and listening to people who live there - and the people I know IRL who actually live in the US were all pretty surprised, just as I was. Everyone was predicting Hillary would win, easily.

[Valmy]

Yeah but look where we are now. Most of the country is controlled by Republican legislatures and governors, many of whom answer to these crazy elements. The House and the Senate are, and have been for many years, increasingly in the same boat. The establishment Republicans were destroyed in the Republican Primary.

Obama, and a few old farts in both parties, were all the 'mainstream' politicians had. Now the damn is broken. But sometimes the only way to stop a revolt is to let it take power for awhile.

So if I were Canada I would pay particular attention to Provincial politics. If these kinds of people take control of places like Alberta then start to be concerned.

[Malthus]

Yeah but look where we are now. Most of the country is controlled by Republican legislatures and governors, many of whom answer to these crazy elements. The House and the Senate are, and have been for many years, increasingly in the same boat. The establishment Republicans were destroyed in the Republican Primary.

Obama, and a few old farts in both parties, were all the 'mainstream' politicians had. Now the damn is broken. But sometimes the only way to stop a revolt is to let it take power for awhile.

So if I were Canada I would pay particular attention to Provincial politics. If these kinds of people take control of places like Alberta then start to be concerned.

Heh, just to give it another perspective - a few days before the US election I was invited to give a talk on Canadian regulations concerning medical devices. The seminar was held by the US Department of Commerce, and hosted by the Counsel for Commercial Affairs from the US Consulate in Toronto. Before the talk, we of course had some phone calls to discuss the organization of the event, and the discussion drifted to the US election (naturally). This guy's insider opinion was that Hillary had it in the bag and the only question was whether the Democrats would make major gains in the legislature.

If that's what a fairly significant US government official thought, why should we Canadians know better?

[Valmy]

If that's what a fairly significant US government official thought, why should we Canadians know better?

Seedy and Michael Moore were the prophets nobody heeded



Anyway I gave you my advice. You need to take local politics very seriously, especially if Liberal scandals pile up (which according to Viper is what they do)

[viper37]

I don't understand your logic.  How was Trump the natural or obvious choice to be their candidate?

I meant once he was the Presidential candidate.

Republicans voted Republicans.  Many Democrats stayed home.  Hillary received less votes than Obama did.  Trump receive about the same number of votes as McCain and Romney (maybe less than Romney, I'd have to recheck the figures).

[Valmy]

You have to remember there are a huge amount of independents in the US. Many people voted for both Obama and Trump, they just always vote for whomever they think is going to burn down Washington and Wall Street and show them the heads of the elites on pikes.

[viper37]

I once thought there is no chance the US would elect Trump in a general election, but I was proven wrong.  Somehow I don't think Canada will be totally immune to populist and/or far right politicians.  Too many countries in the west face the same problem.

populist, yes, we have one right now.
Far right, I have a lot of doubts that it could ever happen.

Contrary to the US, far right groups are always under close surveillance.  Compared to leftwing terrorist groups, they are almost in perpetual house arrest.

Any far right group aligning itself with a major political party will be toxic for that party, so they don't want them.

Besides, despite our extremely left leaning canuckistanis (and half Danishstanis) here, what constitutes as far right in their mind is simply debating the extent at which religious extremists are free to poison the life of everyone around them and how many immigrants we can afford to accept in a given year, given the resources we allocate to them.

In fact, the Left's darling has made a lot of smoke about this, but in reality, immigrants survive because they receive help from local charities or citizens.  The government hasn't transferred the funds to the provinces yet, and of many places willing to accept refugees, most haven't seen one except on tv.

The Conservatives proposed a sensible plan to allow refugees to come in at a pace we could follow.  It serves no one when immigrants are sent to non isolated barracks (they were isolated at great costs, but since the work was not ready on time, as I did predict at the time, they were sent to hotels) or lack winter clothing or furniture for their appartments when the cities were able to find some.

[viper37]

meh I wouldn't be so sure. You only have to go to some suburban bar and listen to the same mantra..."fucking refugees, fucking taxes, fucking immigrants."

A charismatic populist can do well here too. Don't overestimate the Canadian voter (other than those here, in which case feel free to overestimate us).

You hear that everywhere.
Also on the list:
- we pay too much taxes
- our MPs do not represent us
- they (politicians) keep lying

and then they vote for the guy who tells them what they want to hear.

[viper37]

All that's required is widespread disdain for traditional media.  As soon as people put unsourced and unverified information as being equivalent to media that has a higher standard opinions can change quickly.

That.

We have that on the left, but it's still marginal.

I'm more concerned about traditional media not fact checking their info or spinning the news in the angle they want (like the recent trade deals) instead of telling the truth than I am concerned about fake news sites for now.