[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

On the other hand, Poilièvre is saying he will always fight against secularism when speaking to English media, and promising to never Quebec laws when he speaks to French media.

En même temps, à la Macron ? 

Yeah.  It's an old trick by Canadian politicians.  Like they kind of think no one is a bilingual in this country.

[Bauer]

I feel some sympathy for the leaders of big tent parties.  There are always going to be people within the tent doing stupid things.  I think the line is crossed if support is given by the leader for what was done.

I agree with that sentiment, which is why I don't put too much stock into who's running clandestine pin operations, or having maga attendees at a conference.  In the end it's the policies that matter and how the parties intend to implement them.

Where I think we differ is, I don't think it's just about the policies they intend to implement. I think we should put a lot of importance on how the leaders conduct themselves.  In the case of the conservative leader, the way he treats the media during the campaign is indicative of how he will treat the media if he becomes Prime Minister. That is a disturbing thought.


But maybe you were thinking that is a policy that will be implemented?

On that subject I agree his conduct is concerning, especially if it's true he's having questions agreed to in advance.  I would like to know more about this.

[crazy canuck]

Interesting inflation data. The lack of travel to the US has brought the cost of travel down as airlines and travel companies try to attract customers.

Also core inflation came down.

[viper37]

Interview with the reporter who wrote the background piece on the person running the conservative election campaign.  She was the person who proposed the barbaric practices hotline and helped organize against O'Toole to bring him down.





https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/front-burner/id1439621628?i=1000703568382

You can see her pictures all over the internet with a MAGA cap.  She's only removed it recently at the beginning of the campaign, once the Libs started gaining serious ground.

[viper37]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pierre-poilievre-media-access-1.7506045

Still, media access to Poilievre remains tightly controlled. At Conservative events, journalists are kept at a distance, often behind barriers. Unlike with other party leaders, the media is limited to ask Poilievre four questions with no follow-ups, and party officials decide which reporters ask questions

Poilièvre's team has give more questions to Brian Lilley from the Toronto Sun than any other media combined.  CBC has been unable to put a question to Poilièvre since March 27th.

The questions are planted.  He more often than not knows what will be asked in advance.  If he doesn't, he deflects and provides a non answer.

Lilley writes pro-Conservatives articles in the Toronto Sun.  Formerly of Rebel News.

[Jacob]

Interesting inflation data. The lack of travel to the US has brought the cost of travel down as airlines and travel companies try to attract customers.

Also core inflation came down.

Oil prices are down as well, which should impact fuel costs. Though I'm not sure how quickly jet fuel costs are impacted by oil prices.

[Jacob]

So I've been following 338canada.com fairly closely recently, obviously.

They've had my local riding as Liberal for a while, though it just shifted to Liberal/NDP toss-up. The thing is, though, I've seen literally hundreds of NDP signs in the area (I bike around quite a lot to take my kids places), and less than 10 Liberal signs, and probably only 2 or 3 Conservative signs (and they may have been in neighbouring ridings to be honest).

Now signs don't mean votes, and the frequency of signs doesn't necessarily imply general sentiment - but the discrepancy is notable nonetheless.

[crazy canuck]

Your riding is one of the safest NDP ridings in the country.  The fact the Liberals have a shot there is really saying something.

[Josephus]

My riding has gone from CPC safe a week or so ago, to CPC likely.

[HVC]

My riding has gone from CPC safe a week or so ago, to CPC likely.

You better not vote NDP *shakes fist*

[Jacob]

Your riding is one of the safest NDP ridings in the country.  The fact the Liberals have a shot there is really saying something.

Yeah I know.

My question is whether the Liberals actually have a shot or not. I don't know enough about 338 polling methodology on the riding level to question it one way or the other, but if sign frequency is a significant indicator (and it may not be) then the Liberals don't actually have a shot in spite of what 338 is saying.

Conversely if the Liberals do come close to the NDP or beat them, then my take-away is going to be that sign frequency means next to nothing.

I'm making no conclusion either way at this point, just putting it away for later and then assessing the outcome once we know the election results.

[HVC]

Extrapolating from my moms area I can safely say lawn sign are for old people which if in anyway true could skew things.

[crazy canuck]

Jacob, I read a while ago that to prevent a complete collapse the NDP are concentrating their spending on ridings they should win. So total survival mode at this point.  I assume your riding is amongst those where they are doing their spending, so that explains all the signs - it takes paid canvassers to get out and knock on doors to get people to take the signs and then of course the cost of the signs themselves.

I would be surprised if the riding flips to the Liberals.  But if it does, there is going to be a lot of soul searching within the NDP.

As a comparison, there are no NDP signs to be seen in my riding.  Usually they are about equal to the Liberal signs. 

[Jacob]

Good perspective.

I can see the logic in concentrating resources in my riding if the NDP need to be defensive. And yeah, if the lose my riding that's definitely an indication that something has gone seriously wrong for them.

[Grey Fox]

Jacob, you riding is in a no signs on public land area right? If so, I don't understand 338's infatuation with the Liberals in your riding. It's going to be orange, as usual.