[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Josephus]

My riding has gone from CPC safe a week or so ago, to CPC likely.

You better not vote NDP *shakes fist*

I WANT to....but yeah, I'll have to vote Liberal but really the Conservatives have held this riding federally for years (Strangely it swings to NDP in provincial elections)

[Josephus]

My riding has gone from CPC safe a week or so ago, to CPC likely.

You better not vote NDP *shakes fist*

I WANT to....but yeah, I'll have to vote Liberal but really the Conservatives have held this riding federally for years (Strangely it swings to NDP in provincial elections)

[Jacob]

Jacob, you riding is in a no signs on public land area right? If so, I don't understand 338's infatuation with the Liberals in your riding. It's going to be orange, as usual.

All the signs I'm seeing are on private property.

I don't know if that's the law or not, but there are none on public land.

[crazy canuck]

Jacob, you riding is in a no signs on public land area right? If so, I don't understand 338's infatuation with the Liberals in your riding. It's going to be orange, as usual.

All the signs I'm seeing are on private property.

I don't know if that's the law or not, but there are none on public land.

GF is correct, the City of Vancouver has a By-law which prohibits signage, the exception being the part of city property that is between the sidewalk and a residence, but the permission of the property owner is required since the City only has a right of way there.

It is different in the District of North Vancouver, where signs are put up all over District property visible from the road way.

[Zoupa]

My riding was won by the Cons in 2021 47% to 21% Libs. Now they're polling at 47-41, still Cons. The crazy Bernier voters went to the Cons and Libs picked up some Cons and NDP.

338 has it as 82% Cons likely, so I'll take it. My riding is full of Alberta expats in giant pickups with Fuck Trudeau flags, so it's still a win in my book. I have a feeling that if we didn't a FPTP system, but 2 rounds of voting, the Conservatives would never win an election. Just a gut feeling though, I have no data to prove it and after a few cycles I'm sure it would rebalance itself.

[Bauer]

338 has my riding as a dead heat between libs and cons with ndp a close 3rd.  Seems my vote may matter - the island is usually a ndp stronghold.  I've heard on the radio for awhile that cons are making big progress on the island though.

I see signs from all 3 parties around but the cons signs are the biggest and the only ones with the candidate picture.

[viper37]

So I've been following 338canada.com fairly closely recently, obviously.

They've had my local riding as Liberal for a while, though it just shifted to Liberal/NDP toss-up. The thing is, though, I've seen literally hundreds of NDP signs in the area (I bike around quite a lot to take my kids places), and less than 10 Liberal signs, and probably only 2 or 3 Conservative signs (and they may have been in neighbouring ridings to be honest).

Now signs don't mean votes, and the frequency of signs doesn't necessarily imply general sentiment - but the discrepancy is notable nonetheless.

You have to take these odds with a grain of salt.  At the riding level, they are not necessarily polls.  You have to check what the site says:

This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.


Pollsters don't do proper polls in all riding. 338Canada will extrapolate national polls at the riding level.  Political party will do... pointing (pointage)? Calling people on their list, seeing how they'll vote, extrapolating their support from there, but these aren't shared with the public.

I see Ruth Ellen-Brosseau* in a tie with the Libs candidate in Berthier-Maskinongé, but people there are unsure of such a high score, despite her popularity.



*She got famous back in Jack Layton's wave for being a "post" candidate.  She was from Ottawa, she was a waitress and she was on vacation outside outside the country when she got elected, never even campaigned in the riding, didn't expect to win, barely spoke a few words of French.  She moved in her riding, learned French, took her role really seriously, eventually got married and bought a farm, got re-elected once but was defeated later.

[Bauer]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pierre-poilievre-media-access-1.7506045

Still, media access to Poilievre remains tightly controlled. At Conservative events, journalists are kept at a distance, often behind barriers. Unlike with other party leaders, the media is limited to ask Poilievre four questions with no follow-ups, and party officials decide which reporters ask questions

Poilièvre's team has give more questions to Brian Lilley from the Toronto Sun than any other media combined.  CBC has been unable to put a question to Poilièvre since March 27th.

The questions are planted.  He more often than not knows what will be asked in advance.  If he doesn't, he deflects and provides a non answer.

Lilley writes pro-Conservatives articles in the Toronto Sun.  Formerly of Rebel News.

I read this article and watched a report and it doesn't seem as flagrant as some posters were saying here.  So he called a reporter a protestor who asked about the security clearance thing, and they are trying to flush out questions from reporters in advance and controlling responses.  It's not exactly the same thing as only taking questions you know in advance.

Nevertheless I think it's a really bad campaign decision.  If he wants to be prime minister he needs to be able to answer questions, articulate rationale, etc.  Carney has answered double the questions at this point and I generally find him thoughtful and holistic in his responses.

[crazy canuck]

338 has my riding as a dead heat between libs and cons with ndp a close 3rd.  Seems my vote may matter - the island is usually a ndp stronghold.  I've heard on the radio for awhile that cons are making big progress on the island though.

I see signs from all 3 parties around but the cons signs are the biggest and the only ones with the candidate picture.

Yeah, I was surprised to see all the Conservative gains on the Island.

[crazy canuck]

Greens are out of the debate. They purposefully reduced the candidates in the election so they no longer meet the criteria