Japan hit by 8.9 quake and following tsunami

[Caliga]

As I understand it, earthquakes are typically a sudden release of tension that has built up between plates. So essentially yes. You can have continuous small tremors or you can have more intermittent larger quakes.

[The Brain]

A few years ago a Swedish scientist made a breakthrough regarding earthquake prediction. The technology exists and can be implemented cheaply. You can tell where the next big quake will happen and you get short term warning days before the quake.

[Josquius]

So why isn't it used?

[The Brain]

So why isn't it used?

It's only been around a few years. Earthquake folks are very conservative. They often also have decades invested in methods that are inferior.

[The Minsky Moment]

On the bright side however I remember reading these reactors are the oldest ones at the site and were due to be replaced in a year or two anyway.

But keep in mind it takes about five years to construct from breaking ground to COD. 

What I find interesting about the regular news media coverage of nuclear is that the safety issues tend to be over-covered and over-played while the economics of construction and capital commitments are under-played.  The latter probably have more to do with the slow progress at new construction in recent years than any other issue.  Especially when one takes in account that the project finance structures traditionally used to finance these things was impacted by the financial crisis.

[Iormlund]

The economics of nuclear plants depend a lot on where you are. America with its extremely cheap coal is not really in the same boat as other countries in this respect.
And if you factor in health costs (and I still can't comprehend why we don't) coal is much, much more expensive than nuclear, even in the US.

The real hurdle of a nuclear plant in economic terms is the sheer amount of money one needs to spend before seeing any returns. It's much less risky to build a gas-fired plant - it'll probably be someone else who has to sell a kidney to buy enough fuel for it down the road.

[Admiral Yi]

I was thinking this earthquake should be a real boon to the Japanese construction industry.

[Jacob]

Uh oh... just got this on Twitter:

NHK: explosion, suppression pool pressure drop, 10,000X increase (over normal) radition levels, partial evac of TEPCO staff - reactor 2

NHK expert saying that possibly the worst nuclear failure in history - urging officials to release more information ASAP

I hope this is just misplaced panic, because if it's true that's really really really shitty.

[Jacob]

Alright... mildly better, now a qualification: "possibly worst Japanese nuclear disaster." Somewhat less horrible. Still, another explosion is still bad news.

[Neil]

Natural disasters come and go.

A chance to incite hysteria over nuclear power has to be milked for all it is worth.

I don't really get why left hippies hate nuclear power so much.  It's safe, cheap, and pollution-free.

It's a historical thing.  Remember that certain aspects of the enviro-left are religious in nature, and anti-nuclear positions are received knowledge.  It began way back when the nuclear power industry was just a part of the nuclear weapons industry.

[Neil]

That is a very serious issue in itself because nuclear construction costs are so high and time to construct is so long.  The replacement cost of the Fukushima complex is likely somewhere between 9 and 15 billion dollars.  Putting aside safety issues, it might make more sense to build a number of  less complex, smaller, non-nuclear plants in areas that are at high risk of earthquake or severe flooding.  (a consideration that does not seem to impacted regime thinking in Iran).

Nuclear power isn't so important to Iran.  It's just an unfortunately necessary step towards building the weapons needed to attack Israel.

[Neil]

Hmmm... that raises some questions with me then, as the Sendai plain has been hit with very large tsunamis in the past (there was one in the middle ages that IIRC was so destructive that it helped the Japanese win a war against the Ainu that still inhabited the area) and there had been predictions for some time that the area was overdue for another massive quake.

What does it mean to be "overdue for an earthquake"?  Do earthquakes happen in cycles?

More or less.  Remember what causes earthquakes?

[Josquius]

Ouch:
http://www.japanprobe.com/2011/03/14/worlds-deepest-breakwater-failed-to-stop-tsunami/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JapanProbe+%28Japan+Probe%29

[Tonitrus]

In a picture released by the Japanese Defense Agency on March 13, sixty-year-old survivor Hiromitsu Shinkawa, right, is shown as crew members of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) Aegis vessel Choukai sail to rescue him, about 9.3 miles (15 km) off Fukushima prefecture. The Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer rescued Shinkawa after discovering him floating on a piece of roof in waters off Fukushima Prefecture two days after the disaster struck. The man, from the city of Minamisoma which has been virtually obliterated, was swept out along with his house after the massive tsunami tore into Japan's northeast following a 8.9-magnitude earthquake on Friday

[Monoriu]

Hmmm... that raises some questions with me then, as the Sendai plain has been hit with very large tsunamis in the past (there was one in the middle ages that IIRC was so destructive that it helped the Japanese win a war against the Ainu that still inhabited the area) and there had been predictions for some time that the area was overdue for another massive quake.

From what I read, the Japanese invested massively in breakwaters.  A coastal city just earned a place in the Guiness book of records for having the most elaborate and deepest breakwaters in the world.  The system was completely ineffective in this crisis and was destroyed. 

The nuclear plants were also protected by breakwaters that were not up to the task.  That's why the Japanese were caught off-guard.  They thought they had enough protection and the cooling system would remain intact.