Hungarian Politics

[Tamas]

In related news, the Russian ambassador to Budapest said there is no reason for Russia not to trust Hungary, Hungary's participation in the EU sanctions was "forced by Brussels", so basically no hard feelings.

[Josquius]

They could mean it. For all Russias promise of friendship is worth.
Or they could just be trying to sow EU discord.

[Tamas]

More from FM Szijjarto: "what the Ukrainian leaders have done, crosses all boundaries" - as in, they must stop speaking ill of Orban.

Needless to say, what Russia has done in Ukraine received no criticism so far.

This is so embarrassing and infuriating.

[alfred russel]

It was a really bad mistake by zelensky to more or less openly campaign against orban in the weeks prior to the election. is there anything more important to a politician than getting reelected? doubly so for a politician that needs to keep power to keep the law away for corruption and who knows what else.

If you take that shot, you better be sure you get the kill.

[Tamas]

It was a really bad mistake by zelensky to more or less openly campaign against orban in the weeks prior to the election. is there anything more important to a politician than getting reelected? doubly so for a politician that needs to keep power to keep the law away for corruption and who knows what else.

If you take that shot, you better be sure you get the kill.

Yeah but actually no. If he made a mistake it was thinking that the Hungarian population would not abide with Orban's stance, so calling him out for being a Russian lapdog would prompt his population to pressure him.

In reality, however, a big enough portion of Hungarians have been made too poor and state-dependent by Orban the last 12 years not to prioritise affordable fuel over not being a despicable coward. And there's a good portion who could take the financial hit (which doesn't exist in the first place as Putin would keep selling as we see with Germany), but doesn't want to.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think Zelensky was actually smart to go after Orban. There is no realistic scenario where Orban either loses or meaningfully assists Ukraine, as Hungary is controlled by a Putin puppet. Zelensky's goal in going after Hungary, and more broadly EU and NATO leaders who have been inappropriately close or soft on Putin, is to drum up more support among the countries willing to help him. I also think it's largely a net-good for there to be more conflict between Hungary and NATO/EU. Unlike some people I don't necessarily take a "let's paint the map as big as we can" view of NATO. NATO in my mind is largely for countries that are part of the Western order to be protected against conquest by Russia, at its core. The involvement of Turkey in NATO was always an aberration and plain realpolitik, and that's fine. Hungary unlike Turkey I think brings a whole lot less to the NATO table and I don't actually think I'd mind if Hungary just became a Russian vassal state, and in many ways I'd like to see that happen since I believe people who vote for individuals like Orban should bear the consequences of their actions.

I am 100% not against countries becoming Russian vassal states if that is what their people want, if Ukraine had, by majority votes, indicated a desire to be part of Russia's economic area and Russian military alliances, I would not advocate for trying to stop it.

[Jacob]

Agreed. The priority with Hungary should be to minimize the damage it can do to EU and NATO - and the usefulness to Russia as a destabilizer of the same organizations.

[Tamas]

This may be just kreminology gone too far, but it seems conceivable Orban is about to probe the public for the idea of Huxit. As in, leaving the EU.


There is a particularly spineless "independent" former MP, who just lost his seat in this election, called Janos Volner.
He used to be in Jobbik, then when they pivoted toward the centre, he took part in the creation of Mi Hazank ("Our Homeland") the true spiritual heir of original Jobbik and a party gently supported by the Fidesz media. But, he left them shortly after they got formed and maintained himself as a so-called independent MP during the previous 4 years.

Well, during his "independent" tenure, he was a stronger Fidesz MP than most actual Fidesz MPs. In particular, he regularly submitted bills which Orban wanted but did not want direct association with. Most notably, a series of minor but important changes to the electoral system which helped cement Fidesz' vast advantage during the election. In other words, he is an agent of Orban.

So, this guy, after predictably faring abysmal during the recent campaign with his "Volner Party" formation, has just formed a new party called: "Huxit", clearly, to focus it on that one topic.

Judging by his parliamentary history, it is not far-fetched to think he was instructed to do this to gauge and perhaps even build support for the idea of leaving the EU. We shall see based on how much government media attention he is getting in the coming months. I could totally see it - a fringe guy getting media attention starting to build his support base can be very beneficial if Orban wants to pick up the idea of Huxit and run with it later. In the meantime, if the Huxit Party gets traction this can be used in negotiations with the EU, and if Orban wants to discard the whole idea, it would be extremely easy (at least I think that's the line of thinking) to shut the whole thing down by making this guy shut up and cutting him from the media.

[Zanza]

This may be just kreminology gone too far, but it seems conceivable Orban is about to probe the public for the idea of Huxit. As in, leaving the EU.

Great news! 

Nah, actually sad, but it would help the EU if Hungary quit.

[The Larch]

if the Huxit Party gets traction this can be used in negotiations with the EU

How so? In a "stop me or I'll shoot myself" kind of negotiation?

[Tamas]

if the Huxit Party gets traction this can be used in negotiations with the EU

How so? In a "stop me or I'll shoot myself" kind of negotiation?

Essentially. But until now the EU largely refused to rock the boat over Orban planting a Putinist system into the EU. This may be because for whatever reason, they have judged that having Hungary inside the EU (by, essentially, paying tribute to Orban since the grant money ends up largely in his and his oligarchs' pockets) is better than having them outside of it. It would not be the first time that awkward marriages of convenience are maintained in foreign politics.

[The Larch]

But until now the EU largely refused to rock the boat

Either you vastly underestimate what the EU has done about Hungary so far or overestimate what the EU can do within the current legal framework.

[Tamas]

But until now the EU largely refused to rock the boat

Either you vastly underestimate what the EU has done about Hungary so far or overestimate what the EU can do within the current legal framework.

I realise Hungary would be in a much worse place politically by now without EU interference, but on the other hand continued EU grants have made Orban's system possible. He didn't have to reveal himself as an autocrat, he could just buy everything.

[Syt]

If Huxit happens, it would separate Romania, Bulgaria, Greece from the rest of the EU. Not ideal, but Greece used to be in that situation in the past, so hopefully wouldn't disrupt things too badly.

[Josquius]

If Huxit happens, it would separate Romania, Bulgaria, Greece from the rest of the EU. Not ideal, but Greece used to be in that situation in the past, so hopefully wouldn't disrupt things too badly.

Zelensky has entered the chat.