Hungarian Politics

[Sheilbh]

Similar to Russia in that regard, I think.

Although I don't think Orban poses in the way that Putin does. I don't think Orban gets photoed going to church a lot.

I think it is an extreme example of the "civilisational turn". It's not about piety or people actually going to church but Christianity as part of European/Hungarian "civilisation" against Muslims and the rest of Europe. As Orban put it only Hungary and Poland in Europe have conservative, Christian governments.

[Jacob]

Although I don't think Orban poses in the way that Putin does. I don't think Orban gets photoed going to church a lot.

I think it is an extreme example of the "civilisational turn". It's not about piety or people actually going to church but Christianity as part of European/Hungarian "civilisation" against Muslims and the rest of Europe. As Orban put it only Hungary and Poland in Europe have conservative, Christian governments.

I don't think the number of photo-ops involving churches makes that much of difference to the core approach which is - as you correctly state - about conservative Christian civilization opposing the uncivilized foreigners and the decadent godless wokeists of the West who will corrupt your children.

[Tamas]

I wouldn't overthink the whole Christian thing with Orban and Hungary. It is on an extremely superficial level, and in not any way or shape or form can be compared to the role it plays in the US. It is a key nominal part of the followers' political identity, but of no consequence in that identity, or in resulting cultural policies, compared to the race and culture aspects of that overall identity.

[celedhring]

Yeah, religion isn't that big of a cultural mover in most of Europe really.

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2018/06/13/how-religious-commitment-varies-by-country-among-people-of-all-ages/

The way it's used by the far right is more in opposition to MUSLIMS TAKING OVER  rather than it having much of a draw on its own.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think the number of photo-ops involving churches makes that much of difference to the core approach which is - as you correctly state - about conservative Christian civilization opposing the uncivilized foreigners and the decadent godless wokeists of the West who will corrupt your children.

I agree - I think there is a bit of Russian particular-ness about it. Because defending Europe from Godless revolution and the Muslims has been, intermittently, the Russian line since 1789. I think those images of Putin and the role of the Church/Patriarch Kirill is possibly invoking that past - a bit like the other hints at Tsarist Russia by Putin.

I think in most of the rest of Europe - especially with Orban - it's a bit more abstract. There's no need for actual, existing Christianity or a holy Orthodox church to buttress their claims. I think that is different than the US, but maybe the direction they're going in? I keep seeing stuff about how some of the strongest culture war/politicl views seem to be held by "political evangelists" who don't actually go to church that often.

[Tamas]

So, over the past decade or so there have been many discussions and allegations over just how much the various opposition parties have fallen under Fidesz influence. I won't go over the history, but while nothing could be proved, it was noticeable how most of these parties regularly sabotaged their own chances at winning. Still, I didn't think it went much farther than influential people in these parties being blackmailed/bribed by Fidesz to serve as agents.

But, I think this is where I now draw a line and accept the narrative that this is a pretend-opposition now fully in cahoots with Fidesz in maintaining the status quo of the Orbanist regime.

Why? Well, as I wrote earlier, Orban is easily facing the worst crisis of all his reign, including his 1998-2002 stint. The EU is not willing to pay grants, there is huge inflation, the decade-long policy of keeping the currency weak is coming back with a vengeance as its reaching record lows, the main legitimacy of the system, low utility costs are going out the window as the state is now unable to finance them, the vehicle fuel price cap is starting to cause shortages, there has been a drought, etc.

It's a golden opportunity for an opposition, even one that has to deal with such a handicap of being shut out of most publicity, like Hungary's.

So, what do they do? Well, they have been largely silent so far. But now, MSZP (the old ruling Socialist party which is now a dim shadow, a dead husk moving ahead by dead-weight momentum from its heydays) has made an announcement, closely followed by Jobbik (the once-nazi now moderate-right party) who will do their own separate version of MSZP's initiative.

What initiative? I'll tell you: both parties (independent of each other) will begin to organise for calling a national referendum to... re-affirm Hungary's EU membership. 

[The Brain]

Is Hungary leaving the EU even a remote theoretical possibility?

[Tamas]

Is Hungary leaving the EU even a remote theoretical possibility?

FU

[celedhring]

We could trade it for Ukraine.

[HVC]

Is Hungary leaving the EU even a remote theoretical possibility?

FU

I mean it would suck for you personally, and a lot of Hungarians, but it'd be better for the eu.

[Tamas]

Apparently what Orban has gained by committing to Putin is... nothing.

I do wonder what's in it for him (maybe he really is effectively an active agent at this point?). He is completely  treated like a dog being kicked around if that's better for his master's plans.

I wrote about all the economic trouble the country is facing. So Orban sent a delegation led by the Foreign Minister (that master of negotiation proclaimed at the start: "we are willing to pay any price to get the gas we need") to get more gas shipments from Russia.

Apparently, they were aiming to get a billion cubic meters extra, but all they managed to beg together is 52 million, to be sent over a 20 days period.

52 million cubic meters of gas is Hungary's average daily usage. In other words he received nothing. I have little doubt this is because Putin wants to avoid Hungary selling gas to Germany during the winter and/or build a sufficient gas reserve.

I feel sorry for all the people freezing during winter, but I am glad the spineless shithead is being treated like the POS he is.

[celedhring]

So, an Hungarian I know from a non-Paradox videogame forum has just posted that he can't stand it anymore and he's upping sticks and leaving the country (he's married with two kids). Fairly affable fellow, never seen him talk politics in the 2-3 years I've known him.

Feels like in the end Orban will perpetuate himself by forcing liberal Hungarians to emigrate.

[Tamas]

So, an Hungarian I know from a non-Paradox videogame forum has just posted that he can't stand it anymore and he's upping sticks and leaving the country (he's married with two kids). Fairly affable fellow, never seen him talk politics in the 2-3 years I've known him.

Feels like in the end Orban will perpetuate himself by forcing liberal Hungarians to emigrate.

I think that has already happened. Most of the non-student people who were to really leave have left. There are hundreds of thousands of people (could be as high as half a million) who instead of going to protests and voting opposition have instead emigrated.

[Josquius]

Doesnt Hungary have a really generous system for citizens abroad to vote?

But ja. It doesn't even take emigration imo. Its one of my personal conspiracies that right wing populists encourage poverty on purpose as they know it creates supporters.

[Sheilbh]

I think it's got very restrictive rules for expats who live in the ROTW and very generous rules for the diaspora who live in neighbouring states - that Orban occasionally makes quasi-revanchist gestures towards.

So basically the young, educated and liberal migrants who are likely to oppose Orban have hoops to jump through, while the people who borders moved around in the twentieth century can vote very easily.