Hungarian Politics

[Sheilbh]

I accept Tamas' point that Orban is different - but surely the same point could be made for, say, Duda's Poland?

[Zanza]

Short answer is no, I think. As long as Orban continues to moderate himself from an EU point of view, the German carmakers will not want the extra administrative burden of their supply chains going through a non-EU border.

Where does the idea that German carmakers somehow have this huge influence on German politics, especially foreign politics come from?

Anyway, German carmakers are used to managing global supply chains, inside or outside the single market. Hungary may now have a comparative advantage due to its geographic closeness, for them favorable politics and single market membership. But even without membership  Hungary would likely have some kind of FTA and would have to do even more on the tax and human capital side to stay attractive. German industry is not loyal or sentimental about international investment opportunities.

As also Brexit shows, giant multinationals can easily manage a few more bureaucratic procedures. SMEs cannot.

[Admiral Yi]

Where does the idea that German carmakers somehow have this huge influence on German politics, especially foreign politics come from?

China

[Zanza]

 

[Admiral Yi]

Important export market, Germany not at the forefront of slagging on treatment of Sinkiang and Hong Kong.

[Tamas]

I think it comes from trying to figure out why Germany is putting up with all the BS from Orbán.

[Zanza]

Important export market, Germany not at the forefront of slagging on treatment of Sinkiang and Hong Kong.

So you think that a hypothetical Germany that is not exporting cars to China would be confronting China on its human rights atrocities?  You have a more positive view of Germany than I do then.

[Tamas]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pkJvd1LLUk

[Sheilbh]

[Admiral Yi]

So you think that a hypothetical Germany that is not exporting cars to China would be confronting China on its human rights atrocities?  You have a more positive view of Germany than I do then.

Does Germany not criticize other countries for human rights abuses?  Honest question.  As an American I just assumed everyone yapped about human rights but now that you're saying, it's not something I've really noticed or paid attention to.

[Zanza]

Of course it does. And when in say China, they always make a point to meet with some government critical NGO or so in addition to the Chinese government. But I doubt they would do more of that if it wasn't for the nefarious and far-reaching influence the (automotive) industry holds over our government supposedly.

Germany does domestic policies to support its auto industry. But I fail to see its supposed influence over foreign policy. That e.g. Merkel's passivity (and thus the EU's) over Orban's establishment of an illiberal autocracy was somehow due to the auto industry invested in Hungary as Tamas suggested feels to me like a massive exaggeration of their influence. 

[Syt]

There's a bit of a feeling among those left of center in Austria, that the country dodged a bulled thanks to Ibiza which was the first step in dismantling Strache and Kurz in politics (for now, at least), since they were keen on heading in similar reactions (FPÖ more so than Kurz, with the latter generally being more subtle). Hard to imagine if they were still in power, the FPÖ during the pandemic, or both during the Ukraine invasion. And considering that despite all the scandals and corruption cases in both parties both parties combined still poll and 40-45% the coast is not quite clear yet, and the next pretenders might be more subtle (though not the current FPÖ led by Kickl who is a pure populist without the natural "charm" of a Strache or Hofer's soft-spoken subtleties).

[viper37]

Unless you're using a definition of authoritarian which is so watered down as to be meaningless, and thus has no relevance to a discussion about Orban.

Interestingly, this description comes from people who object to the characterization of other politicians as dictator

Anyway.

Tamas, what do you think of this?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/05/hungary-election-viktor-orban-landslide-what-voters-want/

[...]
But it's also true that Orban was reelected because of his combination of market economics, nationalism and social conservatism. This is what a majority of Hungarians want.
The history of Hungarian politics since the fall of communism makes this clear. The country's first free election, in 1990, was won by a nationalist Christian democratic party, the Hungarian Democratic Forum, with about 25 percent. Three other conservative parties, including Fidesz, combined for an additional 27 percent. The nationalist center-right, therefore, had roughly 52 percent support.

That pattern held for the next 20 years, even as the parties themselves evolved. With the exception of the 1994 election, the collection of center-right parties consistently received between 49 and 54 percent of the vote. Orban's Fidesz party, once an urban-based party focused on market economics, grew into a nationalist, big-tent party with a variety of conservative views. By 2006, it was the dominant party among Hungarian conservatives.

Hungarians grew angry with the emergence of a leaked tape in which the prime minister admitted his Hungarian Socialist Party had lied to win the 2006 election, and they shifted massively to the right in the wake of the 2008 economic crisis. Many blamed the ruling Socialists for the collapse. Fidesz won in a massive landslide in 2010, claiming 53 percent of the vote. A nationalist party to its right, Jobbik, also won 17 percent, while the Hungarian Democratic Forum won almost 3 percent. In other words, nearly three-quarters of Hungarians embraced right-wing parties even before Orban had a chance to manipulate election rules.

To understand Fidesz's political dominance, one must understand that Orban's nationalism responds to a long-standing element of Hungarian public opinion. For most of the past decade, his most serious opposition came from Jobbik, not the collection of Budapest-based centrist and center-left parties favored in the West. Jobbik, reviled in the West, grew to about 20 percent of the vote even as Orban shifted his focus to nationalist themes to limit its gains. Jobbik's strength was nearly 30 percent at the height of the European migrant crisis, effectively forcing Orban to adopt his well-known anti-migrant stance.

[...]

[Tamas]

The Hungarian Foreign Minister summoned Ukraine's ambassador to Hungary, demanding that Ukraine "stop insulting Hungary, and accept the decisions of the Hungarian people".

[Tamas]

And of course this is the same guy who at the end of last year was happily accepting a medal from Lavrov, after being aware for at least 6 months by that time -as it has been revealed as per an earlier post of mine- that his ministry has been hacked wide open by the Russians.

The EU and NATO must deal with the Hungary situation. Orban has turned Hungary into a Russian mole in these organisations.