Hungarian Politics

[Tamas]

Zelensky? 

If you remember Zelensky called out Orban like a week ago to make up his mind and take a side in the war. The pro-Orban press took grave insult and started the narrative of Zelensky being in direct contact with the opposition to achieve their victory so Hungary could enter the war on Ukraine's side. A ridiculously blatant lie of course, but these sorts of fearmongering blatant lies have kept him in power for 12 years now, and it seemed it worked again.

Based on this note by Orban last night I think he genuinely got pissed at Zelensky for endangering his re-election chances by calling him out. Very unlikely that he is going to change his tune regarding the war.

[Sheilbh]

Which presents a problem for the next round of sanctions etc. I wonder if Orban felt a little more constrained pre-election, but will now be liberated to cause more issues/act as a block?

[HVC]

How is a pro Russian state part of nato? Is there no saner rattling that can be done there?

[Tamas]

Which presents a problem for the next round of sanctions etc. I wonder if Orban felt a little more constrained pre-election, but will now be liberated to cause more issues/act as a block?

The hope of some (like Poland's) was that post-election he'd be free to take an anti-Putin stance. I am afraid he is now free to make a more free pro-Putin stance, yes.

[Tamas]

How is a pro Russian state part of nato? Is there no saner rattling that can be done there?

Orban has had to be under big pressure behind the scenes as Hungary has been quietly voting yes on everything NATO and EU have done so far.

[Syt]

It's a nice rigging of the system he's achieved, btw, when he can get 54% of votes and win 2/3 of parliament seats, giving him (again) the power to change the constitution if he feels like it.

[Tamas]

It's a nice rigging of the system he's achieved, btw, when he can get 54% of votes and win 2/3 of parliament seats, giving him (again) the power to change the constitution if he feels like it.

Indeed. My favourite person at the opposition's side (Akos Hadhazy, who has done TONS of investigative work and was among the MPs literally thrown out of the state TV building a couple of years ago), repeated his often-repeated point this morning: opposition MPs should not assist to the false theatre of democracy. They should demand restoration of democratic parliamentary practices, like meaningful opposition control over committees (most notably the one overseeing state media). If denied, they should not take up their seats and salaries.

He is right, it's the right thing to do, but just like in the Labour party in the UK, I believe a lot of opposition politicians are quite content with being His Majest's Permanent Opposition, taking up their salaries and grants while sitting around and waiting for the winds of history perhaps landing power in their laps.

[The Larch]

I wonder if, taking into account how no-nonsense the EU is becoming (at the very least compared to its past behaviour), should Orban take a blatantly pro-Putin attitude, could it not result in Hungary finally getting kicked out of the EU? Or NATO at the very least?

[The Larch]

It's a nice rigging of the system he's achieved, btw, when he can get 54% of votes and win 2/3 of parliament seats, giving him (again) the power to change the constitution if he feels like it.

IIRC The Economist ran an article recently denouncing the Hungarian electoral system as extremely gerrymandered in favour of Fidesz, making it extremely difficult for the opposition to present a realistic challenge to Orban's rule.

[Tamas]

I wonder if, taking into account how no-nonsense the EU is becoming (at the very least compared to its past behaviour), should Orban take a blatantly pro-Putin attitude, could it not result in Hungary finally getting kicked out of the EU? Or NATO at the very least?

Short answer is no, I think. As long as Orban continues to moderate himself from an EU point of view, the German carmakers will not want the extra administrative burden of their supply chains going through a non-EU border.

[The Larch]

I wonder if, taking into account how no-nonsense the EU is becoming (at the very least compared to its past behaviour), should Orban take a blatantly pro-Putin attitude, could it not result in Hungary finally getting kicked out of the EU? Or NATO at the very least?

Short answer is no, I think. As long as Orban continues to moderate himself from an EU point of view, the German carmakers will not want the extra administrative burden of their supply chains going through a non-EU border.

It surprises me that you of all people use a pro-Brexit argument (the mythical German car-makers as the ultimate decision makers in the EU). 

[alfred russel]

It's a nice rigging of the system he's achieved, btw, when he can get 54% of votes and win 2/3 of parliament seats, giving him (again) the power to change the constitution if he feels like it.

IIRC The Economist ran an article recently denouncing the Hungarian electoral system as extremely gerrymandered in favour of Fidesz, making it extremely difficult for the opposition to present a realistic challenge to Orban's rule.

Maybe but Fidesz got an absolute majority of the votes cast. You can't blame gerrymandering for them winning.

[Tamas]

I wonder if, taking into account how no-nonsense the EU is becoming (at the very least compared to its past behaviour), should Orban take a blatantly pro-Putin attitude, could it not result in Hungary finally getting kicked out of the EU? Or NATO at the very least?

Short answer is no, I think. As long as Orban continues to moderate himself from an EU point of view, the German carmakers will not want the extra administrative burden of their supply chains going through a non-EU border.

It surprises me that you of all people use a pro-Brexit argument (the mythical German car-makers as the ultimate decision makers in the EU). 

The pro-Brexit argument was around the silly notion that German carmakers would not want Brits to be paying a few percentage more for their cars due to British tariffs.

Hungary's economy seems entirely dependent on German carmakers, however. It would be challenging to find a family where nobody is working in a part of that supply chain. I may be overvaluing Hungary's value to German industrialists because of this. But I think it must be a pro-putting-up-with-Orban balance against kicking him out together with the country.

More importantly, on second thought, is what would happen once Hungary is kicked out: it immediately fully entering the Russian economic and political orbit. I don't think that's an acceptable outcome for the EU, not while Orban continues to be an embarrassment but keeps stopping short of blocking really important things.

[Sheilbh]

Indeed. My favourite person at the opposition's side (Akos Hadhazy, who has done TONS of investigative work and was among the MPs literally thrown out of the state TV building a couple of years ago), repeated his often-repeated point this morning: opposition MPs should not assist to the false theatre of democracy. They should demand restoration of democratic parliamentary practices, like meaningful opposition control over committees (most notably the one overseeing state media). If denied, they should not take up their seats and salaries.

Maybe - I'm not sure about the right approach on opposition parties boycotting the electoral process/system. I think it's had a pretty mixed impact - I think in Venezuela especially the opposition has gone back and forth on this.

It surprises me that you of all people use a pro-Brexit argument (the mythical German car-makers as the ultimate decision makers in the EU). 

It wasn't true for Brexit - but I don't think it's entirely untrue everywhere. Certainly not with the approach of Germany's governments under Merkel to Hungary, or China for that matter.

From everything I've read Germany under Merkel was very reluctant to come down on Orban for many years and even within the EPP it was the CDU/CSU (and especially the CSU) that didn't want to punish Fidesz. The reporting certainly here in the Guardian and elsewhere basically called out Merkel as Orban's protector within the EU. It feels like that is at least partly driven by economic considerations as well as a desire not to rock the boat/push things into a confrontation when they can be left to drift. I think - as with tolerance for autocracy within the EU and on Russia and China policy - the new Germany government will be far, far better.

[Sheilbh]

But, the official far-right (Fidesz is far-right in rhetoric and actions, but still like to pretend they are non-radicals) is back to Parliament! You might recall that following Fidesz' push to the right edge of the spectrum Jobbik, the previous tenant of that space chose to mellow out and try to take the emptying right-of-center. Turns out like in America, there's no such thing anymore. Breakaway nazis from Jobbik created a party with rather obvious Fidesz help (called Mi Hazank - Our Homeland). They ran on their own (with limited backing from Orbanist media) and have achieved around 6% of the votes and thus will have a few MPs, enough to create their own official faction in Parliament.

It's a big trend in Europe at the minute to now see the emergence of multiple far-right candidates/parties. Optimistically it's a fracturing of the far-right, pessimistically (and I think probably correctly) it's a sign of their growing strength.

Obviously in France you've had Zemmouor and Le Pen, in Italy there's Fratelli d'Italia (which is literally descended from Mussolini's fascists) as well as Lega, in the Netherlands there's FvD as well as PVV. They don't generally seem to split the vote enough for it to be a net loss instead they seem to reach slightly different constituencies and end up net increasing the vote of the far-right.

Separately I think Orban may have solved the problem of how to deal with past associations with Putin: pitch yourself as the peace candidate v war-mongers. So there were anti-war, but pro-Ukrainian protests which Orban's press and party framed as "pro-war" because they want Hungary to get more involved. It'll be interesting to see if that gets picked up elsewhere.