Hungarian Politics

[celedhring]

Loved the Nobel prize winner going all "thank you and fuck you" after Orbán congratulated him.

His work sounds mightily interesting, too. Now that he's got the Nobel it will be easier to get ahold of some decent translation.

[Syt]

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Belgium may still have some bridges left that connect to nothing. Maybe there are opportunities here...

[Valmy]

Kind of impressed they built such a large piece of useless infrastructure for so little money. We would have used 1.3 million in the planning stage for the useless road.

[Tamas]

Anniversary of the start of the 1956 revolution today, Orban and Magyar each had a big rally. Orban's did not seem at all impressive considering the state-wide effort to make people go there.

But, what I have found interesting are the swirling ironies between the two speeches.

Orban was calling on young people to learn from the revolution's example and step up - plus a few other comments which seemed to ignore that he is the long-established incumbent power, being a close ally to the very power the revolution revolted against.

Magyar, showing his roots as a young Orban fanboy, referenced Orban's 1989 speech sending the Russians home and mourning the (then) young generation's future and calling for determined resistance. Magyar basically highlighted that these are relevant today, against Orban himself.

The irony Magyar missed, I think, is that what he showed that in 1989 Orban was him. The question begs itself: 30 years from now, will he be the Orban of today? (answer: likely yes).

[Josquius]

Image of the size of the protest today

https://bsky.app/profile/almodozo.bsky.social/post/3m3uodwainc2z

[Valmy]

The irony Magyar missed, I think, is that what he showed that in 1989 Orban was him. The question begs itself: 30 years from now, will he be the Orban of today? (answer: likely yes).

Yep. There is just a hope that he will be less pro-Russian.

[Tamas]

So one news is that Orban just visited Trump and got full exemption from American sanctions on Russian oil.

A much graver news concerns internal politics. Peter Magyar's party (Tisza) launched a mobile app not too long ago to share news etc but also they wanted to utilise this to elect their MP candidates.

A week or so ago pro-government press broke the news that this app has been hacked and over 200 thousand people's personal data (name, address, date of birth) has been leaked. Several pro-government "media" started harassing people on the list. Not just public personas but regular people.

And today somebody launched a searchable online database with an interactive map (and it got reported and linked by all the major pro-government online news sites) so if you want to see who from your village/town registered on the Tisza app, you can do so.

In a semi-feudal system like Hungary this can have grave consequences for people. The poorer they are the less they can afford to be seen as anti-Fidesz by the local lord (mayor, employers).

And the election will be in April. Things will turn ugly.

[Valmy]

This is our future if we don't crush Trumpism yesterday. We are all going to be supporting some incompetent right wing nut as the lesser of two evils. Ben Shapiro for president we will be saying, got to stop the 5th term of President Vance.

[Tamas]

Orban has started a "roadshow" campaign, I have seen the Guardian has an article on it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/15/viktor-orban-hungary-2026-election-campaign-fidesz

I am not sure if they mention, but Peter Magyar decided to shadow him and hold public rallies in the same cities/towns on the same day as Orban is having his events.

The first city, Gyor, tells you all you need to know about the momentum of the two sides and how foregone a conclusion this election would be if it was an actual democracy.

This is Magyar on his event:


This is the building where Orban held his event, I believe you had to pre-apply to enter and they installed this black plastic "curtain" around it a day before the event:






Oh, and the police installing CCTV on the public square Magyar held his rally, I guess you can wave it away by caring for public safety:




Oh, and some polling showed that the majority thinks that the Tisza party (Magyar's party) candidates for Parliament (who have not been selected) are more competent than the Fidesz ones.


I wonder what will happen if in April Orban manages to get a victory either simply by having his overwhelming media and budget (state budget and party budget are inseparable) superiority, or by cheating.

The people fed up with him have tried everything these last 15 years. Voting separately on parties - disaster. Public pressure on these parties to ally and run as one - a bigger disaster. Now they are trying putting aside their personal political views and rallying behind the charismatic mid-Right candidate because they see the momentum. A lot of people will feel out of peaceful options if this fails. Whether that pushes apathy to unseen levels, or starts the violence, I have no idea.

[celedhring]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-14/orban-challenger-solidifies-lead-before-hungary-s-april-election?embedded-checkout=true

Orban Challenger Solidifies Lead Before Hungary's April Election

The upstart party that is presenting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban with the stiffest challenge in his 16 years in power widened its lead three months before parliamentary elections, a poll showed.
Peter Magyar's Tisza increased its lead to 12 points among decided voters ahead of the April 12 ballot, up from 10 points in November, according to a Median poll published on HVG news website on Wednesday. Tisza has a 51% to 39% edge over Orban's Fidesz, according to the poll, which had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Really want to take Tamas' pulse on this. I can't see Orban sitting idly and losing power.

[Tamas]

Yeah I can't see him just accepting the L and sitting in Parliament as the leader of the democratic opposition. But I can't really tell which of these scenarios are going to unfold:

1. He goes all in with Russian assistance, things like false flag terror and Belarus-style election fraud. If these become apparent or obvious there are going to be some riots especially if he wins but he may survive them.

2. He concedes but his oligarchs proceed to grind the country to a halt like they have the economic power to and he tries to coup himself back via street protests after half a year like he tried in 2006. All bets are off on how the general public will react to the chaos. Many non-political ones would see that as "it was better under Orban

3. He tries option 2 but only to find his key people have made a deal with Peter Magyar so after some initial chaos things calm down. He becomes a disgraced former leader, might decide to GTFO to the Saudis but more likely will just retire as he knows too much about too many side-switched people and summarily executing him isn't an option like with the Romanian guy I can never spell right.

4. He himself makes a deal with Magyar, handover in exchange of his family keeping their massive wealth. This is the only scenario where I can imagine a peaceful handover. Also maybe the most likely. Pretty much what happened in 1989.

[The Minsky Moment]

Is Magyar's party named after the river or after the WW1 era PM?

[Norgy]

So one news is that Orban just visited Trump and got full exemption from American sanctions on Russian oil.

A much graver news concerns internal politics. Peter Magyar's party (Tisza) launched a mobile app not too long ago to share news etc but also they wanted to utilise this to elect their MP candidates.

A week or so ago pro-government press broke the news that this app has been hacked and over 200 thousand people's personal data (name, address, date of birth) has been leaked. Several pro-government "media" started harassing people on the list. Not just public personas but regular people.

And today somebody launched a searchable online database with an interactive map (and it got reported and linked by all the major pro-government online news sites) so if you want to see who from your village/town registered on the Tisza app, you can do so.

In a semi-feudal system like Hungary this can have grave consequences for people. The poorer they are the less they can afford to be seen as anti-Fidesz by the local lord (mayor, employers).

And the election will be in April. Things will turn ugly.

I still can't wrap my head around how Hungary (well, Orban) managed to tie up every media outlet and make them wag their tails in unison.

[Tamas]

Is Magyar's party named after the river or after the WW1 era PM?

The river but it carries zero message. It was a tiny complelety nonconsequential party (membership of like 2), but it was already registered in the run up to the last EU elections. Magyar needed a registered party to be able to run, so made a deal and has taken it over. "Tisza" in this case is supposed to be an acronym but it's just so they can name it after the river.