Hungarian Politics

[Zanza]

A land connection is not important as there are ways to ship common market goods across a non-EU country, also done in the UK to Ireland.

Anyway, Hungary is economically much more dependent on the goodwill of the EU than vice versa. They would have to agree to far-reaching economic integration without having a say. Become a rule-taker instead of a stumbling block.

[Duque de Bragança]

A land connection is not important as there are ways to ship common market goods across a non-EU country, also done in the UK to Ireland.

Indeed. Greece fared well enough years before a land connection with the rest of the EU indeed. A bit more problematic for Romania and Bulgaria which do not have such an easy sea link with Italy with the Brindisi-Patras sea lane.

[The Minsky Moment]

The EU has the impossible trilemma of: (1) maintaining the existing veto points, (2) keeping the Orbans in, (3) acting effectively.  2 out of 3 are possible, but not all three.

[Sheilbh]

There was apparently a surprise visit by VDL to Hungary today - apparently reports are not Huxit (I feel like Magxit works better? ), but that the EU will fund retro-fitting Hungarian refineries to process non-Russian oil. Although that might just be from the Hungarian press.

From a distance, that just sounds like a shakedown and doesn't seem to make sense?

[Tamas]

So, latest poll shows the freshly in-parliament nazi party, Our Homeland, as the most popular opposition party, by some margin.

This of course paints a terrible picture but I am not sure what of. They are the ONLY opposition party which received air time in the pro-Orban media over the last 4 years (means anywhere outside fringe websites), and have been handled with a soft glove by the media propagandists.

[Tamas]

Probably the biggest news of the post-election cabinet reshuffle is that Sandor "The Godfather" Pinter has lost control of the national security organisations (secret service etc). Pinter was a police officer who rose to wealth and prominence through the early- and mid-90s, almost certainly through a lot of connections to organised crime.

He had an air of power and invincibility for long because he always stayed out of public attention and rose to prominence independent of Orban, yet remained a central figure through all Orban governments. But, I guess, at age 73, he could no longer maintain his full grip on power. He will remain Minister of Interior, but his diminished influence is further signalled by healthcare and education moving under his ministry - two badly underfinanced areas strictly outside Orban's interests.

The new boss of the internal clandestine and national security services is Antal "Goebbels" Rogan, an extraordinarily corrupt former mayor of a Budapest district and a long time prominent Fidesz politician. After his corruption cases started to become awkward he was withdrawn to the shadows to manage propaganda efforts. He is a very sinister figure, and I would be hard pressed to think of somebody more dangerous with the secret police under his command.

And true to my suspicions, at his confirmation meeting with the National Security Committee of Parliament (the very definition of a meaningless formality), he outlined that he "will have very specific instructions for the national security services" mainly to "fight pro-war propaganda" and "efforts to make the Hungarian people pay the cost of war".

[The Larch]

Because you can never have enough power in the hands of just one guy...

Hungary's Orban Declares State of Emergency Over War, Economy

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared a wartime state of emergency immediately after his new government was installed.

The state of emergency, a new tool Parliament approved earlier on Tuesday, will take effect at midnight and will give the government "maneuvering room and the ability to react immediately" to the fallout from the war in neighboring Ukraine, Orban said in a video message on his Facebook page.

The government will announce its first measures under the emergency on Wednesday, he said.

[Jacob]

Oh that's not ominous at all.

[Syt]

News here say it's basically just an extension of the state of emergency the country has been in since start of Covid. It was supposed to run out May 31st, but the parliament voted that states of emergencies can also be declared due to wars in neighboring countries and humanitarian crises.

Guess someone wanted a legitimization to continue ruling by decree.

[Tamas]

Indeed and the Covid emergency was the extension of the emergency started because of "migration" in 2015. In effect Orban has been governing by decree (or rather, have had the option to govern by decree) since 2015.

[Tamas]

The newfound Messiah of American conservatives, Orban, has just announced an extensive list of sectors (air travel, energy, telecomms) who will have to pay windfall tax for two years to finance keeping consumer gas and electricity prices "low". Details to be provided tomorrow.

[Tamas]

Not sure if you have noticed but Hungary is being hit especially hard by inflation, particularly because of historic weakness of its currency. Jumping the base rate by two percent to 8% was necessary to stop the freefall a couple of days ago but its been weak for quite a while.

So the new government propaganda piece is out how this is not their fault and also not really Russia's but the EU's.

Highlights from the little movie:

"The sanctions are prolonging the war"




"and inflation keeps rising"

"it ruins economies and affects all our lives"



"But Hungary is not giving up!"

"PEACE is the only solution to war inflation"

[Valmy]

Sounds like it is Ukraine's fault for not immediately surrendering to Russian aggression.

[The Larch]

It seems the EU is taking Hungary to court on a bunch of issues, amongst them:

- LGBTQ+ discrimination.
- Media freedom, due to licence denial for a radio station.
- Discrimination against non Hungarians in fuel bonuses.

[Tamas]

With the pandemic over the annual Hungarian "conservative" summer jamboree in Transylvania could resume. It has become a tradition for Orban to use this for coming up with enough outrageous BS to keep both his supporters and enemies supplied with a thematic for a year.

Seems like this year with the state budget falling apart he felt a strong need to deflect attention from that, and went heavy on race stuff, among other thing envisioning a need in the future where people on the EU border should be allowed in or barred from entry based not on citizenship but on race, so that Europe's racial purity can be maintained.