German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?

[Zanza]

The big exposure of the German economy to China was created based on private initiative. What exactly could Merkel have done so that e.g. Volkswagen sells less cars in China, more elsewhere?

And I think it stored up issues such as coal and the car industry/support for diesel which will be a huge challenge for her successor in the goal to reach net zero

The German car industry - at least the three big OEMs, not necessarily the smaller suppliers have moved on, committed 100% on electrification and diesel is just an afterthought these days. The German OEMs tacitly favor the Greens these days as their policies fit their business plans better. 

Coal is just a question of time now, the latest by 2038, probably earlier. If anything, Merkel's decision to phase out nuclear to win points against the Greens looks worse and worse as time goes on...

[Sheilbh]

The big exposure of the German economy to China was created based on private initiative. What exactly could Merkel have done so that e.g. Volkswagen sells less cars in China, more elsewhere?

Sure but there was also a strategic decision (which Merkel initially challenged - meeting the Dalai Lama etc) to let the private sector take the lead and effectively outsource foreign policy to commercial interests - I think the same as happened with Orban but on a far bigger scale. I think supporting that was also lobbyists for corporate interests in the media emphasising the importance of China with minimal pushback from the state which made it difficult to challenge that perception and created a false dichotomy.

Especially when, from my understanding, in terms of profit Europe is still the major profit centre for big German companies like VW or Siemens - Asia (including China) and the US are roughly level pegging. But they sell more units in Asia because they may sell cheaper, older products at volume (which are often locally produced in China). It's the same as Hollywood - businesses want to do business but we shouldn't mistake corporate propaganda/lobbying for state interests and should be willing to push back on and challenge that or at least clearly mark that state interests may not be the same as commercial interests.

The German car industry - at least the three big OEMs, not necessarily the smaller suppliers have moved on, committed 100% on electrification and diesel is just an afterthought these days. The German OEMs tacitly favor the Greens these days as their policies fit their business plans better. 

I saw a poll that Germans are not convinced by electric cars but very excited by the prospect of hydrogen ones which I think sums up one of the problems everywhere with climate in general of people being enthusiastic for the thing that will help solve the problem but doesn't actually exist rather than the thing that will help solve the problem and does exist

That's a fair point on electrification - and I think electric vehicle production is now up to about 25% of total by German car manufacturers. But just a couple of years ago it was under 5% and I think judging Merkel's time in office we have to look at the whole time since 2005 not just where we are now. I think the German car industry could have been a leader in this area but doubled down on diesel and the emissions scandal. Again it may not be a Merkel thing, it may just be a CDU/CSU thing but I think there's been a confusion of what is good for industry must be good for Germany.

Coal is just a question of time now, the latest by 2038, probably earlier. If anything, Merkel's decision to phase out nuclear to win points against the Greens looks worse and worse as time goes on...

Yeah - I think the nuclear decision was a very bad one. On coal it's worth noting that the median Paris Agreement compatible timeline to phaseout coal for OECD countries is 2031. The furthest out is non-OECD Asia at 2037, but even that is quicker than current German plans - I think to come close to meeting Germany's commitments it will need to be escalated very significantly which is why I think it stores up a big problem for her successor.

In terms of carbon emissions Germany has moved from a European leader to below the EU average in Merkel's time in office and, as I say, that's not all on her, but I think it does leave big challenges for her successor and I think probably quite unpopular politics

But I think there is a specific thing about Merkel's leadership style interacting with climate because I think on climate the wider attitude in society is often not to push for action - it's too big, it's too complicated, it'll be too challenging. I think Merkel's leadership style is generally not to confront voters or try to get ahead of voters, but to wait and build consensus. So I wonder if her leadership style and general social attitudes on climate sort of feed off each other and slightly spiral into inaction.

[Zanza]

Maybe I don't get it, but what exactly could the government have done to reduce the private investment in China? China is just the most attractive market of the last decades. Most growth was there. I am not aware of any real instruments the government has to direct private FDI, especially as China is a WTO country.

You could not earn money with electric cars until recently, so there was no real case for expansion of xEV production. And I predict that the German car industry will do fairly well in the xEV market in the next years - at least the OEMs, not necessarily the supply chain.
But again, what could the government have done to accelerate this structural change?  Massive subsidies? I guess they should have canceled the tax privilege of diesel fuel, but then diesel actually is better regarding climate change than petrol. The problem with diesel is NOx after all.

On carbon emissions, Merkel failed massively I think. Coal should have been phased out much earlier, nuclear much later. Renewables should have been much further than they are. Also I guess hydrogen - for industry, not cars - should be further.

[Sheilbh]

Maybe I don't get it, but what exactly could the government have done to reduce the private investment in China? China is just the most attractive market of the last decades. Most growth was there. I am not aware of any real instruments the government has to direct private FDI, especially as China is a WTO country.

Maybe - I honestly don't know. But I feel like if it was just private investment and market forces wouldn't other countries be similarly exposed? My understanding is they're not - there's no equivalent in France, Britain, Italy, Japan for VW with 40% of its entire production in China or 1/3 of BMW's. It may be that there's something about German business and the sectors that makes it particularly interested in investing and selling in China, but I think it's probably as likely to be policy support and not just a neutral but an encouraging attitude from the state - which definitely pre-dates Merkel.

In terms of one specific change that might help (not just with China) is allowing corporate criminal liability for corruption under German law as is the case in the UK, US and France. My understanding is at the minute in Germany liability for offering or paying bribes is limited to individuals, a company might be done for a corporate governance issues if they don't have good policies about it but legal entities cannot be criminally liable.

You could not earn money with electric cars until recently, so there was no real case for expansion of xEV production. And I predict that the German car industry will do fairly well in the xEV market in the next years - at least the OEMs, not necessarily the supply chain.
But again, what could the government have done to accelerate this structural change?  Massive subsidies? I guess they should have canceled the tax privilege of diesel fuel, but then diesel actually is better regarding climate change than petrol. The problem with diesel is NOx after all.

Yeah - I mean there were huge subsidies and support for diesel that were allowed under EU law and I imagine the German government would have been strongly supportive of those. I think those subsidies probably distorted the market and reduced the incentives to look at alternatives such as electric vehicles - which is why American and Japanese manufacturers moved earlier on them (and perhaps if Germany manufacturers were also working at the same time as the American and Japanese ones the point at which you could make money would have been earlier).

And I think the subsidies were available for new car purchases - though I could be wrong - and while it's right that diesel is better from an environmental perspective (setting aside the health impacts), my understanding is that buying a new car as opposed to a used is always worse from an emissions perspective no matter how clean it is.

[Zanza]

On China business: The exposure of German car companies to China is not that unusual. China is the biggest market for GM (more than a third) or Nissan (more than a third). Some others have a broader footprint, e.g. Toyota, Ford.
In general, the industrial products like machinery or chemistry that Germany sells is what China wanted.

On bribery: OK, no idea if it is possible to penalize German companies for that. If not, I agree with you that it should be possible. Definitely possible for them to have criminal liability for fraud of their employees. But then, I hope the suggestion is not that the foundation of German exports to China is just bribery. Does not seem to explain sales to customers and the many private companies in China...

On diesel subsidies: I do not know enough about that to discuss it to be honest.

On xEV development: Few companies were actually ahead of the German OEMs,but anyway, short of very heavy market intervention I do not see how the government could have accelerated this significantly.

[Sheilbh]

]On bribery: OK, no idea if it is possible to penalize German companies for that. If not, I agree with you that it should be possible. Definitely possible for them to have criminal liability for fraud of their employees. But then, I hope the suggestion is not that the foundation of German exports to China is just bribery. Does not seem to explain sales to customers and the many private companies in China...

No, not the foundation - but I think it might be a factor in certain jurisdictions including China and Hungary that companies can't be criminally liable for bribery. It's something the OECD's been calling for Germany to reform for years and years.

I just double checked an international law firm survey on this. It covered South Africa, 8 APAC, 11 European, 1 Central American, 3 Middle East, 3 North American and 4 South American jurisdictions. The only jurisdictions without corporate criminal liability are Germany, Russia and Turkey - but it looks like there are proposed reforms in Germany which is good news.

[Syt]

If Under 18s could vote in Saxony:



And Thuringia:



Source. https://wahlen.u18.org/wahlergebnisse/bundestagswahl-2021

[Josquius]

That's encouraging I guess.. Still, more young ignorant cunts than there should be. Thurungia in particular seems worm brained. How on earth are afd on top...

The colours suck on that chart.

[Admiral Yi]

That's horrifying.  Skinhead nation.

[The Larch]

So Die Linke is the party for old fogeys nostalgic for the good ol' times, right?

[Zanza]

So Die Linke is the party for old fogeys nostalgic for the good ol' times, right?

Most German parties fit that description. 

[The Larch]

So Die Linke is the party for old fogeys nostalgic for the good ol' times, right?

Most German parties fit that description. 

For AfD it'd be the really old times, I guess. 

[Duque de Bragança]

So Die Linke is the party for old fogeys nostalgic for the good ol' times, right?

Most German parties fit that description. 

For AfD it'd be the really old times, I guess. 

That's a bit harsh for Bismarck. 

[Habbaku]

If Under 18s could vote in Saxony:

FDP

[Syt]

If Under 18s could vote in Saxony:

FDP

In Thuringia the FDP man Kemmerich was minister president for a hot five minutes. After tactical shenanigans he was voted into office with votes from (among others) the AfD which led to such an outcry that eventually he (and others, like the CDU chairwoman at the time) resigned. You can read about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Thuringian_government_crisis