German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?

[Syt]

Oh yes, chancellor (and minister president) candidates are a major factor in federal and state elections.

[Zanza]

The office of chancellor is by far the most powerful political office in the German constitution and political tradition. Of course the candidate matters.

[The Brain]

In Sweden who is party leader (which is a party's candidate for PM) has always been very important in elections.

[Admiral Yi]

I don't understand the electoral system.

So I just read that voters get two votes, one for the individual MP for their district, and one for the party, which determines how many seats each party gets in the Bundestag.

But if, for example, everyone used their first vote to elect the Green MP for their district, and the second vote for the Social Democratic party, doesn't that produce an inconsistency?

I'm obviously missing something crucial.

[Jacob]

It is explained here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_system_of_Germany#Voting_system

From my reading, I think it's something like this:

When you vote, you have two votes. One for the the person you want to represent your constituency, and one for a party.

There are 299 constitiuencies in Germany. Whoever gets the most personal votes in a constituency gets a seat in the Bundestag for that constituency. However, the power in the Bundestag is determined by the second vote, the one for party. So if the SDP gets 52% of the vote, they get 52% of the seats.

To make up any discrepancy, additional seats are distributed (and I think the percentages are applied per region, so if people in Saxony vote 52% for the CDU, 52% of the Bundestag members from Saxony are from the CDU).

The way they square that circle is that they add an additional 299 members to the Bundestag drawn from regonal party lists (so, if the CDU in Saxony are entitled to an additional 27 members, the top 27 CDU candidates (as determined by the CDU party prior to the election) get to take their seats). If the total of 598 seats is not sufficient to hit the appropraite percentages, additional seats are added. In 2017 111 extra seats were added. In 1998, 13 extra seats were added.

... something like that.

The benefit is that you can do things like vote for the local GOP candidate who you think is a good person, but give your list vote to the Democrats because you think the GOP has gone completely bonkers and should not be trusted with power. In that way, you can sort of have your cake and eat it too.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I think that's right but obviously the German posters will have a better idea.

I don't know how they calculate the list seats/do the PR math though.

The multi-member PR/additional member system has been proposed in the UK - and I think the London Assembly, Senedd and the Scottish Parliament electoral systems are all modelled on Germany's system. But they use d'Hondt PR which I do not really understand But I think Germany has a different way of calculating the list seats.

[Admiral Yi]

Dankes a bunch

[Syt]

I had to learn the d'Hondt system at college. Basically it's something like this. Imagine there's 100 seats. Per party vote you'd have 25% of seats. However, you win 30 seats through direct vote. Then the total number of seats gets increased till your 30 direct seats = 25%, so you'd need 120 seats (which are all distributed according to party percentages). In practice there's a bit more to that, but that's the gist.

In practice it doesn't lead to huge changes of # of seats. In general people might split their vote if the like the idea of a certain coalition constellation, or if they like one party, but a different party has a better local candidate. And it can lead to some weirdness, because local candidates are also on their party lists and even if they don't win their direct vote, they'll still be in parliament. I recall a time when my district had three representatives in parliament: the directly elected CDU guy, plus FDP and SPD through party lists.

[Eddie Teach]

What the ...

I guess Neukölln is one the most left constituencies in Germany, so I guess you can just try whatever.

Nice try at an inclusive and (secular?) nationalism. Why should Turkish Bible Bashers vote always for left-wing parties with which they only in common their pro mass-immigration policies? 

Koran-bashers.

[Josquius]

I don't understand the electoral system.

So I just read that voters get two votes, one for the individual MP for their district, and one for the party, which determines how many seats each party gets in the Bundestag.

But if, for example, everyone used their first vote to elect the Green MP for their district, and the second vote for the Social Democratic party, doesn't that produce an inconsistency?

I'm obviously missing something crucial.

In Switzerland you get 13 (11?) and you can scatter them between individuals or parties

This additional seat business I don't approve of however. Two types of MP...no. No....

[Syt]

In a recent survey, voters were asked whether the effects of climate change on future generations would play any role in their choice of who to vote for.

40% of the age group 30-39 said it would, with the number dropping with age to under 30% among 65+ voters. In fact ca. 60% of voters over 65 flat out said it plays zero role in their decision.

[Josquius]

Better that than they will actively choose to vote against those who want to tackle climate change I guess?

[Zanza]

In the past, I usually got FDP on top and also often voted for them. Interesting that they are not in my top group anymore.

But these days I am indeed more aligned with SPD or Grüne and will likely vote for one of them

Out of interest do you think that's more you shifting view or them shifting where they are politically?

Both probably.

On content, the FDP shifted ever further away from their civil liberties topic, e.g. on data protection etc. Also their stance on climate change action e.g. renewable energy or on electric cars is reactionary and industry has long overtaken them. Their Reaganesque view of economics also gets more and more unrealistic. Huge tax breaks, but also paying down debt... silly, really.

On politics, the FDP were willing to get supported by the AfD in Thuringia last year, which is a showstopper for me.

I also moved to the left in my own political views.

I consider climate change a much more pressing issue than years ago and think we need drastic action - worldwide, but as I cannot influence that, at least nationally.

Another big issue I see is the growing wealth gap (not income) in our society, e.g. young people not being able to buy a house without rich parents. That's bad when we cannot guarantee pensions either.

A last big topic for me is family politics, i.e. parental leave, kindergarten availability etc. and I see the left parties stronger there. The pandemic showed how detached from the issues of parents our political elite is. At least Baerbock has two children in school age.

[Zanza]

The Covidiot party is called "The Basis". I guess Osama bin Laden would approve of the name.

[Zanza]

Social Democrat lead has stabilized in the last week,now a few points ahead of the Conservatives in all recent surveys.

The Liberals so far exclude the Traffic Light, Social Democrats and Greens exclude a coalition with the Left Party.

Most interesting election in years here, still wide open.