German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?

[Sheilbh]

Interesting - what happened to the AfD vote:

The Greens:

The FDP:

And the CDU:


Absolutely love the 60,000 AfD-Green swing voters. It reminds me of the (genuine) phenomenon of UKIP-Lib Dem swing voters

[Zanza]

100.000 persons switched from the Left to the FDP. Amazing.

[Syt]

Latest estimate:

[Sheilbh]

100.000 persons switched from the Left to the FDP. Amazing.

I love them - voters who exist to confound political science and pollsters

[Josquius]

So the cdu are doing far better than expected it seems?

[Sheilbh]

Interesting under 30 over 60 polls:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1442183678235451396?s=20

[Admiral Yi]

Exciting - really don't want the FDP near government but seems inevitable.

Your visceral hatred of centrist parties is weird.

[Sheilbh]

Your visceral hatred of centrist parties is weird.

I don't think the FDP are that centrist.

The reason I don't want them near government is that I think they'd want the Finance Ministry and I think Christian Lindner in the Finance Ministry would be a catastrophe for Europe.

[Duque de Bragança]

Your visceral hatred of centrist parties is weird.

I don't think the FDP are that centrist.

The reason I don't want them near government is that I think they'd want the Finance Ministry and I think Christian Lindner in the Finance Ministry would be a catastrophe for Europe.

So centrist à la Macron or "populist" (sic) à la Macron? 

[Sheilbh]

Re. Graz. I am a massive fan of the Communists' campaign material/design and can confirm this would be sufficient to win my vote:


Edit: Also looks like referendum in Berlin won - interesting to see the fallout now

[Valmy]

Edit: Also looks like referendum in Berlin won - interesting to see the fallout now

My God. The Communists have won Berlin after all.

[Duque de Bragança]

Edit: Also looks like referendum in Berlin won - interesting to see the fallout now

My God. The Communists have won Berlin after all.

I thought the referendum on rents and nationalisation of private real estates companies was only indicative?
As in the Brexit referendum, but Germany does have a written constitution, unlike the UK, doesn't it? 
Plus no nationalisation without due compensation, so that's a significant hurdle.

[grumbler]

Amthor is the oldest 20-something in the world and a poster child for the phrase "punchable face". He was paid by a shady company to lobby the economy minister but denied this until he could noonger deny it. Recently he lobbied on behalf of Tiktok of all things, which is just weird. 

What we call a Backpfeifengesicht in German:

Wow.  I never really got the "punchable face" meme until I saw his picture.  That should be in the dictionary as an example.

[Syt]

There seem to be three - on paper - feasible coalitions:
- SPD/FDP/Greens
- CDU/FDP/Greens
- CDU/SPD

Linke don't seem to have won enough seats for a theoretical SPD/Greens/Linke coalition. And while AfD won enough sears to enable a coalition, no one wants them in government.

CDU and SPD are unlikely to want to continue their coalition at this point. FDP have said they want to hold preliminary talks with the Greens.

[Barrister]

My German exchange student has been quite interested in the results, and telling me a bit.  I've had to break it to him that while I'm no expert, I do know what the major parties are.  He's a Green supporter, but has been quite diplomatic when he learned my politics.