German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?

[crazy canuck]

It is interesting how distinct East Germany remains after 30+ years.

Yeah, and Bavaria - after how long...

Bavaria is a distinct political entity since 555 AD, when the older Bavarian duchy  was founded by the Merovingians. 

No reminder that "true" Bavaria was not part of Germania in Roman times? Not even part of Roman Germania. [spoiler]Roman though[/spoiler]
Disappointed. 

Well done, both of you 

[Zanza]

For the history nerds: "Identify the kingdoms of Bavaria, Saxony and Prussia as well as the most important Catholic bishoprics in their 1870 borders".  Actually even Baden and Württemberg are easily noticeable. 

[Syt]

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000129993801/landslide-victory-for-the-communists-in-graz-what-fueled-their

Landslide Victory for the Communists in Graz: What Fueled Their Success and What Comes Next?

The second largest city in Austria could soon have a communist mayor. But Elke Kahr's success on Sunday was preceded by years of hard work.

It was likely one of the strangest moments on this historical election evening in Graz. A clearly emotional Siegfried Nagl, until then the center-right mayor of the city, announced his resignation by saying: "I will withdraw my protective hand, but also my helping hand, from Graz." After his 18-year tenure as mayor of the southeastern Austrian city, what exactly did he mean by "protective hand." It sounded like a threat. "OK, I'm leaving you to the communists. That's apparently what you voters wanted. You'll see what it brings!"

The "Leningraz" Apocalypse

Shortly before the election, members of Nagl's party, the Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) of Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, had warned in drastic terms of what might happen if the communists were allowed to prevail in the election. A vote for the leftists, they said, was "a vote for chaos, terror and fear." They warned of mass unemployment. The term "Leningraz" even made the rounds.

And then, there was the ultimate victor of the elections, the head of the Communist Party of Austria (KPÖ) Elke Kahr, who had given the ÖVP apocalyptic nightmares, standing before the television cameras earlier in the day and answering questions about what she would do until the election results were announced. Her answer? She said she would use the time to finally do a bit of housework and wash a couple of loads of laundry. The beautiful weather, she insisted, was perfect for drying.

Kahr is well known for precisely those kinds of reactions. No grand words – a language that everyone speaks. She could be the friendly next-door neighbor who always offers help when needed. Precisely 28,8 percent of the voters in Graz, the capital of the state of Styria, were of the opinion on Sunday that Elke Kahr was not actually planning on launching the next communist revolution from the city, but would instead devote herself to helping the "common people," just as she has in previous years. That's what the residents of Graz have grown accustomed to from her.

Communist Support from the Upper-Middle Class

Kahr, say many, harbors nostalgia for Soviet-style communism, accusations that she calls "laughable." People have known her and her party well enough for decades, she says.And she has developed a following that now stretches through all segments of the population. In the detailed results of this municipal election, it becomes clear that the KPÖ under Elke Kahr has been able to win votes even in obviously upper-middle class neighborhoods of the city. Outgoing Mayor Siegfried Nagl gambled away a fair amount of support in such neighborhoods by giving real estate investors free rein – right in the midst of long-time ÖVP supporters.

Why, though, was the KPÖ able to find success in Graz when it hasn't even managed to get on the ballot in other Austrian states? Political scientist Manès Weisskircher told the STANDARD that it "wasn't specific milestones, but the long-term focus on the issue of housing that was decisive." It began with Elke Kahr's predecessor, Ernest Kaltenegger, who focused his attentions on this essential area of city management after all the other parties ignored it. He would visit residents of substandard apartments on a regular basis, listen to their concerns and arrange for assistance. He established an emergency hotline for renters.

A Self-Imposed Salary Cut
And then there is the political credibility that informs the KPÖ's election success, said Weisskircher. Whereas politicians at the federal level continually exceeded their campaign budgets, the communists in Graz didn't just call for cuts in the public funding provided to political parties. They also set aside two-thirds of the 5,500-euro salaries they earned. With a salary like that, Kahr once said, it is easy to lose sight of the concerns facing the population at large. The money was placed in a fund that has since then been used to help people who have been laid off or evicted. The KPÖ says that 1.7 million euros have poured into the fund since 1998.

Support for the KPÖ, derogatorily referred to as a charity by other parties, continuously grew. As the municipal official in charge of apartments, Kaltenegger pushed through a policy ensuring that every apartment be equipped with a shower and a toilet. Colleagues of his in government were astounded that such substandard apartments even still existed in the city. Kahr continued Kaltenegger's approach after he withdrew from politics. The result of the years 2004 to 2016: 960 new community housing units built and property for 550 apartments acquired. The social image of the party continued to grow.

A Misguided Plan

Officials in the Graz chapter of the ÖVP, under soon to be former mayor Nagl, and in the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), with whom he has led a coalition government since 2016, were aware of Kahr's popularity. They knew that if they continued to leave housing policy up to her, it would be politically dangerous. They had to seize the core social issue from the KPÖ. As such, they essentially shunted her aside following the 2016 municipal elections and made her responsible for the transport portfolio, hoping it would take the wind out of her party's sails. Sunday's landslide victory for the KPÖ clearly demonstrates that the plan failed miserably. But what does the future hold in store for the KPÖ, which – for the first time – could soon control a city hall in Austria?

"The majority comprised of the Communists, the Green Party and Social Democrats could open up a new window of opportunity here," said Weisskircher, who added that it can be assumed that the communists will continue to focus on housing policy. In its election platform, the KPÖ also called for a minimum wage of 15 euros an hour, a reduction in working hours and the safeguarding and creation of jobs through public investment.

Weisskircher doesn't believe there will be any kind of rapid communist expansion into the other Austrian states, given the amount of long-term political legwork that would require. The political scientist does, however, believe that other left-wing groups, particularly the Social Democrats, should engage in some self-reflection in light of the KPÖ's election success in Graz. What the vote in Graz has ultimately demonstrated is that the "electoral successes of far-right parties are not a law of nature. If left-wing actors fail elsewhere, they also in part have themselves to blame."

[Syt]

Philip Amthor won the race for the direct ticket, but he made it into parliament via party list.

[Zanza]

The party leader of the Conservatives, Armin Laschet (silly hat guy), now resigned his office.

A traffic light coalition with Scholz as chancellor, Lindner as finance minister and Baerbock as foreign minister is now the most likely outcome.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting to see the former GDR really standing out with regards to Linke, AfD, Greens, and to lesser extent CDU.

From Adam Tooze's Twitter - KPD and left party votes in 1924 when "East Germany" still seemed out of the Christian Democratic mainstream of "West German" politics:


Really interesting how far back there seems to be a divide - I assume it's a legacy of the different states, particularly Prussia, that pre-date a unified Germany. But I'm not sure

[Zanza]

The Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals are now entering formal coalition talks with the declated intention to form the next government. 

Their proposed policies are among others:
- State needs to be faster, i.e. shorter duration of bureaucratic processes and more digitalisation
- More investment in broadband internet
- More ways for citizens to participate in decisions, but keeping the representative democracy (i.e. no direct democracy)
- More renewable energy (all new houses must have photovoltaic, 2% of the country used for wind energy, more offshore wind energy, coal ending 2030, not 2038)
- Only carbon-neutral cars by 2035, more charging infrastructure, no general speed limit on the autobahn 
- More organic agriculture
- More flexible working models, e.g. remote work, more variety in hours
- 12 Euro minimum wage, annual adjustment afterwards through a non-governmental commission of trade unions and employer federations
- Higher tax free limit for mini jobs
- Better support for founding companies, better social security for solo freelancers
- Changing the needs-based welfare to a "citizens income" which is basically a form of universal income for poor persons
- Move government and private pensions more towards being capital-based
- Try getting more care-givers from abroad to bolster the system
- More full day kindergartens and schools to allow parents to work
- State support for students no longer tied to parents income and state support for retraining in midlife
- Increase spending on research and support more spin-offs from research institutions
- Make start ups more attractive by giving tax breaks for employee stocks
- Build more apartments, both by easier planning approval and public loans
- Better legal standing for diverse forms of partnerships/families
- Easier way to legally migrate to Germany and gain citizenship
- Remove the word "race" from our constitution and add protection from discrimination due to sexual identity to the basic human rights
- lower federal voting age to 16
- no tax raises, keep debt limit, more investments (this will be by far the most critical point in the coalition talks)
- Support EU and single market, strong Franco-German collaboration
- Rule of law within EU, stronger military cooperation
- Support for NATO and security of Israel
- Multilateralism
- Combat illegal migration, but also don't let people drown in Mediterranean, more streamlined asylum policy
- Legalize cannabis

[Jacob]

That all sounds pretty reasonable to me.

[Syt]

The German Bundestag has a separate section in the gallery for representatives who are neither vaccinated nor tested for Covid. Shockingly, it only seems to be AfD politicians.

[Zanza]

German coalition deal sealed, to be presented later Wednesday

Germany's Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats have almost concluded coalition talks, the parties say. This means the country will likely have a new government well before Christmas.
The three parties planning to form a new coalition government in Germany will finalize a draft deal in the course of Wednesday, party sources have said, after some differences over financial and climate policies and ministerial posts were resolved at overnight talks.

Twenty-one representatives of the three parties — the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the environmentalist Greens and the business-focused Free Democrats (FDP) —  were to meet for concluding negotiations on Wednesday. The parties issued invitations to the press for a mid-afternoon conference where the party leaders would "present the coalition deal negotiated in the previous weeks," as the Greens put it in their invitation.

Any deal must be voted on by party conferences in the case of the SPD and the FDP and by party members in the case of the Greens.

The sources said the parties would like to see SPD candidate Olaf Scholz elected as chancellor by the Bundestag in the second week of December so that the new government can commence its work. That would also mean that outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel would not surpass the record for days in office held by Helmut Kohl, falling far less than a month short.

Elections in Germany took place some eight weeks ago. The coalition talks began on October 21.

If the election of Scholz as chancellor goes ahead as planned, it will have taken 73 days to form a new government following the elections. This compares favorably with the 171 days needed after the 2017 elections to form a so-called grand coalition of Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) and the SPD.

Why is Germany getting a coalition government?
The parliamentary elections on September 26 saw the SPD, which was the junior coalition partner to the CDU in the previous government, make large gains to win the vote with nearly 26%.

The SPD showed itself litle inclined to enter a third coalition government in 16 years with the conservatives, who came in second at just over 24%, and quickly decided to try an alliance with the Greens and the FDP, although the latter two parties differed from one another on several issues, notably climate policy.

The Greens scored an unprecedented success at the elections, beating its previous scores by around 6% to gain third place on nearly 15%, while the FDP, a traditional kingmaker party in Germany, attained 11.5% of the vote to come in fourth.

The recent coalition talks would seem to have ironed out many of the differences between the two parties, with, among other things, the Greens abandoning its plans to introduce a speed limit on Germany's motorways, while the FDP has accepted an earlier phaseout of coal-fired energy.

'New dynamic' on climate policy
Sources from the Greens have said they are satisfied that the coalition deal fulfills the environmentalist party's demands that all policy areas — from transport and contstruction to agriculture — take the protection of the global climate into consideration.

They said a "new dynamic" was being set in motion to help Germany stick to the goal of keeping global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

Negotiators from the Greens said Germany's climate policy under the planned coalition government would include measures to massively increase the use of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy. They said this would enable the country to abandon coal as an energy source by 2030, eight years earlier than planned under the last government.

Coalition is agreed now and a new government will be formed in the next days.
https://m.dw.com/en/german-coalition-deal-sealed-to-be-presented-later-wednesday/a-59915201

[Zanza]

Ministers will be distributed by party:

SPD: Chancellor, Interior, Defence, Work, Healthcare, Development Aid, Construction&Housing (last one is new)

Greens: Economy & Climate, Foreign, Family, Agriculture, Environment

Liberals: Finance, Justice, Traffic, Science & Education

[mongers]

Ministers will be distributed by party:

SPD: Chancellor, Interior, Defence, Work, Healthcare, Development Aid, Construction&Housing (last one is new)

Greens: Economy & Climate, Foreign, Family, Agriculture, Environment

Liberals: Finance, Justice, Traffic, Science & Education

Huge misstep by the Greens, they should have gone for Internal Security, Intelligence and Defence portfolios.   

[Sheilbh]

Interesting and positive bit on rule of law:

Michael Meyer-Resende
@meyer_resende
(1) German coalition treaty "We call on the European Commission to use and enforce the existing rule of law instruments more consistently and promptly, including the rulings of the European Court of Justice (ECJ), via Articles 260 and 279 of the TFEU". (Is Germany now going on
(2)..acelerator, after years on the brake?) "We in the Council will more consistently enforce/develop application of ROL instruments". "We will agree to the COM's proposals on the reconstruction fund if conditions like independent judiciary are met."

Although I still have an issue on the reconstruction fund - but I know I'm an outlier on that.

I am slightly worried about what an FDP Finance Minister means for Europe especially as we start moving to a more clearly post-pandemic phase.

[Habbaku]

Liberals: Finance, Justice, Traffic, Science & Education

[Zanza]

So Germany has a new chancellor, Olaf Scholz,and the Merkel era is over.