German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is a familar enough expression to me but I suspect it is archaic.

[Zanza]

Interesting way to split CDU and CSU, which is usually not done in these surveys. Shows that the CDU is at risk of being the third largest party in the election.

[Syt]

So the Central Jewish Council in Germany have made an official statement urging people not to vote for the AfD. A snippet of the article in "Die Welt" is there. And AfD members have tried to downplay the Holocaust, with a senior member calling the 12 years of the Third Reich "a bird's poop" (a metaphor for items of insignificance) compared to the 100 year history of Germany. Another influential member bemoaned in reference to the Holocaust memorial in Berlin that Germany was the only nation to put a "Monument of Shame" into the heart of the capital.

Marcel Goldhammer, vice chairman of "Jews in the AfD" now has this poster:



Top left: "Against government-financed 'professional Jews' in Germany!"

"Marcel Goldhammer
AfD Candidate for Federal Parliament
- defended Hews while in the IDF
- Vice chair of Jews in the AfD
Jews.
But normal."
(A play on the AfD slogan "Germany. But normal.")

[Jacob]

Clever from an alt-right lol-memes haha perspective. Not sure it's going to move the needle for them in any other aspect, though.

[Syt]

Laschet at the CSU party convention in Bavaria: "In all decisions in post-war history the Social Democrats have always been on the wrong side."

This would presumably incoude several coalitions with the conservatives in the past 20 years?

Also, keep in mind Social Democrats voted in favor of criminalizing rape between married partners (many current CDU politicians voted against it in the 90s), allowing women to take jobs without their husband's approval, voted for reunification etc. etc. etc. It's a ridiculously dumb form of hyperbole which mostly seems to prompt a "What have the Romans ever done for us?" response.

[Sheilbh]

The CDU seem to have really gone into old-fashioned red-baiting as things are getting difficult. It's really weird - half expecting a return of some of those 40s and 50s posters.

But also it's Olaf Scholz - I get the fear mongering about a coalition including the left - but surely this just bounces off him. It's like the GOP attacking Joe Biden as a socialist radical despite his entire career

[Syt]

It seems that's all they have at this point. They've been warning of a left shift for weeks and months now - never mind that they have a candidate in Thuringia in Maaßen whose opinions would be right at home in AfD and where the CDU is refusing to draw a line (a CDU politician who refused to endorse him caught flak, meanwhile a local neo-nazi endorsed Maaßen, with very limited commentary from the CDU). This is also before the background of various right wing, racist, and neo-nazi chat rooms and networks within police and military becoming publicized almost every other week, or the mentioned (lack of) reaction by the executive re: "Hang the Greens" posters.

[Syt]

Judges in Zwickau have ruled that the "Hang the Greens" campaign posters can go up again, provided they're at least 100 meters from campaign posters of the Greens.

[Duque de Bragança]

Judges in Zwickau have ruled that the "Hang the Greens" campaign posters can go up again, provided they're at least 100 meters from campaign posters of the Greens.

Waiting for the judgment from Karl-Marx Stadt judges, now Chemnitz (not far from Zwickau and bigger), to form an opinion.

[alfred russel]

Is a SPD-Greens-Left coalition possible? it seems likely SPD is the biggest party, but with the greens will by shy of a majority. Is the left off limits?

[Syt]

Flashback: Merkel in November 1990 with fishermen on the East German island of Rügen:



I think Merkel was, in terms of foreign affairs, a decent chancellor. However, domestically I feel she stood for stagnation and staying the course. The problem is, Scholz and Laschet look like they will be basically more of the same.

Meanwhile, Germany ranks 21/28 in digitalization in the EU: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-and-digitalization-why-cant-europes-richest-country-get-up-to-speed/a-58273979

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes, I think she has benefitted by the contrast between her dignified behaviour and the buffoons running the UK and Trump. I just get this amorphous feeling that Germany is somehow drifting and is adverse to change, but maybe that was the best on offer given all the populist nonsense pervading the west these days 

[Zanza]

On foreign policy, Merkel also has some rather big failures, e.g.:
a) the unopposed rise of Orban's autocracy, which was criticized way too late by Merkel's EPP
b) Schäuble's handling of the Eurozone debt crisis where something similar to the now planned Corona helps would have been better
c) Her unilateral action instead of the usual multilateral approach in the refugee situation of 2015, which led to a strong AfD and considerable strife within the EU and a shitty deal with Erdogan (and tacit acceptance of thousands drowning each year)
d) Her support for Nordstream 2, which I feel does not serve German, only Russian interests and wasting political capital with Biden for this

Also a hypothetical: She wanted to join Bush in Iraq...

That said, she also created stability (which is typically good in foreign policy) and was a respected interlocutor for many foreign politicians, even e.g. Putin.

[Zanza]

Current mean of last week's surveys with the change compared to the election five years ago.

[Sheilbh]

Yes, I think she has benefitted by the contrast between her dignified behaviour and the buffoons running the UK and Trump. I just get this amorphous feeling that Germany is somehow drifting and is adverse to change, but maybe that was the best on offer given all the populist nonsense pervading the west these days 

Yeah I think she is flattered by contrasts around her - and not just Trump and Johnson, but also Blair, Bush and Berlusconi when she came to office, Hollande and Sarko in the Elysee. Really good piece in the New Statesman on Merkel.

But I agree on the sense of drifting - it feels very weird to me to see a leader leave office with political capital intact. She's still hugely popular and there's, from my understanding, no doubt that she would win re-election if she stood. Which does raise the sort of - what was it all for/what was the point question. I'd also add that in general I think populism is a reaction, a symptom of a failure of a politics (or the removal of too much from politics) - so I'd maybe give it a decade before judging because I agree on that sense of drift and it's something you wonder about at the next crisis if things left unaddressed or unfixed may be exposed (I think in particular of the very comfortable decade we had in the UK before the financial crisis).

And I think it stored up issues such as coal and the car industry/support for diesel which will be a huge challenge for her successor in the goal to reach net zero, because I think the time when we could, as Merkel did, adopt a cautious, conservative approach waiting for consensus to build is rapidly running out.

On foreign policy I basically agree with Zanza - and I'd add Germany's China policy because I think Germany, among big Western economies, is particularly exposed to China and I think a more cautious approach might have been better. I'd put a little more blame for Orban because I think the CDU/CSU enabled his rise and continued strength because of commercial interests. Obviously I think her policy on the Eurozone was a disaster - and I still don't think the structures are in place to deal with another crisis (which is a bit part of why I hope the SPD wins - and why I think the FDP in government at this point is basically a systemic risk for the Euro).

I also think it matters that for the first time since WW2 a country in Europe invaded another to annex territory during Merkel's term of office and I don't think there's been an appropriate European response or, given that NS2 continues, German response - there were very limited consequences for that.