Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[viper37]

Poor Travis Hamonic. Throwing away his career for nothing.

and evander kane submitted a forged vaccine card. out for 21 games

His teammates are going to be pissed at him.  That's a huge chunk of the season.

I'm all for vaccine mandates, but I think it's a bit ridiculous that you get suspended 21 games for that while you'll miss 2-3 games for a savage blow to the head.

[Syt]

Mean while at a school in Germany ....



"Dear Parents,

the time of studying at home is over, thank God.

Therefore we return to the familiar ways of communication.

So, if you should have any wish or concern, please write a note in your child's exercise booklet and schedule an appointment if necessary.

In exceptional cases (e.g. if you're unavailable in the mornings due to work) we can schedule an appointment for a telephone call.

You can no longer reach me via email."

[HVC]

Poor Travis Hamonic. Throwing away his career for nothing.

and evander kane submitted a forged vaccine card. out for 21 games

His teammates are going to be pissed at him.  That's a huge chunk of the season.

I'm all for vaccine mandates, but I think it's a bit ridiculous that you get suspended 21 games for that while you'll miss 2-3 games for a savage blow to the head.

it's a criminal offense in both the states and canada. he could have gone to jail (unlikely, but possible)

[Admiral Yi]

I'm with Hilllary.  21 days of playing XBox is pretty mild for fraud, forgery, and reckless endangerment.

[viper37]

I'm with Hilllary.  21 days of playing XBox is pretty mild for fraud, forgery, and reckless endangerment.

If I drive drunk or way above the speed limit (or both) and seriously harm someone, I am liable for a more severe punishment than if I present a fake id to a police officer.

I am not arguing against the penalty, it's just that given the NHL usual standards of discipline for its top players, this is a really severe sentence.  Not unwarrented, but severe for the NHL.

[Syt]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/without-covid-19-jab-reinfection-may-occur-every-16-months-say-scientists

Without Covid-19 jab, 'reinfection may occur every 16 months'

Reports grow of repeat infection as experts warn prevalence among school pupils puts older people at risk

As Covid-19 infections surge in England, people are increasingly reporting catching Sars-CoV-2 for a second or even third time.

New analysis has suggested that unvaccinated individuals should expect to be reinfected with Covid-19 every 16 months, on average.

With winter approaching, scientists are warning that such reinfections could add to the burden on the NHS, some calling for the vaccination programme to be extended to all schoolchildren, including two doses for teenagers.

"If you've got high-level prevalence, and frequent exposure to the virus, as you have in schools, you are going to see more and more people getting reinfected despite having been double vaccinated," said Stephen Griffin, associate professor of virology at the University of Leeds.

This time last year, the assumption was that although reinfections could occur this was relatively uncommon, with only two dozen or so recorded worldwide.

We now know that natural immunity to Sars-CoV-2 begins to dwindle over time. One Danish study suggested that the under-65s had about 80% protection for at least six months, while the over-65s had only 47% protection.

The arrival of the Delta variant has further complicated the situation.

"Certainly in the healthcare workers that we've been studying, there are many people who had moderately decent levels of antibodies who have been, in some cases, previously infected and double-dose vaccinated, who have gone down with symptomatic infections," said Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London.

"I think it is far more common than the kinds of numbers we were used to before."

ONS data published on 6 October says that among 20,262 Britons who tested positive for Covid-19 between July 2020 and September 2021, there were 296 reinfections – defined as a new positive test 120 days or more after an initial first positive test – with an average (median) time of 203 days between positive tests.

However, the reinfection risk appears to have been higher since May 2021 when Delta took over as the predominant variant.

Further data from the US, where various states have now started tracking and reporting on reinfection rates, supports the idea there is a substantially higher risk of re-infection with Delta.

In Oklahoma, which has a population of about 3.9 million, there were 5,229 reinfections reported during September (equivalent to a reinfection rate of 1,152 per 100,000) and reinfections have risen 350% since May.

The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines reinfection as a lab-confirmed case of Covid-19 occurring 90 days or more after a previously lab-confirmed case.

Dr Nisreen Alwan, associate professor in public health, at the University of Southampton, said: "With rising levels of Sars-CoV-2 infections in the UK, many of us are personally aware of children and adults who got reinfected, sometimes after a relatively short period from their first infection.

"We still don't know much about the risk factors for reinfection but the theoretical assumption that once all the young get it the pandemic will be over is becoming increasingly unlikely."

To help answer this question, Prof Jeffrey Townsend and colleagues at Yale University School of Medicine analysed known reinfection and immunological data from other coronaviruses, including those that cause Sars, MERS and common colds.

By combining this with antibody and other immunological data from people who had recovered from Sars-CoV-2, they were able to model the risk of Covid-19 reinfection over time.

The research, published in The Lancet Microbe, suggested that reinfections would become increasingly common as immunity waned, particularly when the number of infections was high.

"If we had no infection controls, no one was masking or social distancing, there were no vaccines, we should expect reinfection on a three-month to five-year timescale – meaning that the average person should expect to get Covid every three months to five years," Townsend said.

Although vaccines are suppressing the level of infections, the UK reported 49,156 Covid cases on Monday, the highest figure since mid-July. Rates are highest among secondary schoolchildren, with an estimated 8.1% of this group thought to have had Covid-19 in the week ending 9 October.

"If you allow it to run amok in any age group then it runs amok in all age groups," said Townsend.

"The major implications are that if you haven't been vaccinated, you should get vaccinated, and if you've been infected, you should go ahead and get vaccinated anyway, because that will extend the duration of your protection."

Griffin said: "If you don't clamp down on prevalence [in schoolchildren], you'll get the spread of infection and possibly reinfection, which will then potentially spread to parents whose vaccines may be waning, and more critically to grandparents and clinically vulnerable people."

[garbon]

Looks like the NHS is now making a big public push into shaming the UK gov't into bringing back mask mandate, vaccine passports and advice to work from home (as possible) so as to head off crisis and likely need for full lockdown.

[Syt]

[mongers]

Looks like the NHS is now making a big public push into shaming the UK gov't into bringing back mask mandate, vaccine passports and advice to work from home (as possible) so as to head off crisis and likely need for full lockdown.

Nothing will happen until Johnson is sure the stable is empty and the door hinges have been oil, it hangs evenly and closes easily.

[Sheilbh]

I'm not sure how to do a quick screen shot - but I think across Western Europe at least our perception is still shaped by the first wave. I don't think we have realised quite how bad the alpha and now delta waves have been in CEE. So here is the cumulative deaths in the countries everyone knows were badly hit (UK, Italy, Spain, Belgium) with countries that have really bad alpha and delta waves (Czechia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania):
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=GBR~ITA~ESP~BEL~CZE~HUN~ROU~BGR

The thing that's striking is that in the Western European countries there are clear waves, while in a lot of CEE basically had one massive wave in the winter that was so big it actually had more deaths than the first and second wave in the Western European countries. It's been horrendous and I think it's strange because we've not had the coverage in the rest of Europe (form my impression), possibly because in the first wave it was new while by the time it hit CEE hard footage of people in hospitals wasn't "interesting" or news any more.

[Tamas]

Also I guess somewhat understandably Eastern Europe is "ROTW" territory for Westerners and they care very little of the situation there.


In Hungary things seem to be picking up pace but as always the true extent seems very hard to judge with the minimal amount of testing being done.

[Josquius]

Also I guess somewhat understandably Eastern Europe is "ROTW" territory for Westerners and they care very little of the situation there.


In Hungary things seem to be picking up pace but as always the true extent seems very hard to judge with the minimal amount of testing being done.

You've become super British. Not doing the Eastern European thing of insisting anywhere west of Ukraine is central Europe

[Sheilbh]

You've become super British. Not doing the Eastern European thing of insisting anywhere west of Ukraine is central Europe

As a Brit who's been to Ukraine more than anyone should (once for a Ukrainian friend's birthday who said everyone would be assuming I'm a journalist or a sex tourist ) I'd insist everything West of the Dnieper is central Europe

[Tamas]

 

I have been calling Eastern Europe Eastern Europe for quite a while even before moving here. As events of the last decade show there's precious little difference in political culture between the Elba and the Urals.

[Duque de Bragança]

Should the limit between Europe and Asia then be on the Tanais er Don, as in the Antiquity (hello Strabo)?