Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[garbon]

Anyway, what is the preverse incentive, make sure you are in a job where you will get laid off when a crisis happens? It isn't like these individuals will get a choice to keep that higher income when Feds decided they have had enough.

[Sheilbh]

My point wasn't clear.  I shouldn't have taken the bait about cry babies.  I'm saying that the UI bonus makes staying at home more profitable for some people than working.  That's true now, and it'll be true in two years when we have a vaccine.  That's a perverse incentive.  I'm not saying now is a great time for businesses to open back up (seems a bit early to me).  I'm saying when they do, some people will be losing money.

Isn't the entire point at the minute to encourage people to stay at home?

Sheilbh, Cummings pushing for a more severe lockdown sounds at odds with every bit of his personality found on his blog and writings, so I am not buying it :p Plus earlier there were anonymus reports of him arguing for the opposite so at best these even themselves out :p

Although that earlier anonymous report had him saying the opposite until the Imperial model at which point the report says he started pushing very hard for a lockdown.

We should move it to another thread but I'm interested in your take in his personality.

Eaither way so much for him only showing up as an observer. Of course the government already blew up their own spot when they said he was largely just observing.

Yeah. I've no issues with a spad attending to listen in, maybe ask the odd question. But they shouldn't be going beyond that.

[celedhring]

Retail sales fell 15% in Spain in March (that's with 2 weeks of lockdown), largest drop on record. Groceries rose up 8%, which partially cushioned the figure (they make up a very large % of total sales). April is probably going to be particularly dreadful, with a full month of lockdown and groceries probably trending down after the initial rush to stock up.

GDP data is going to be out in the next few days...

[celedhring]

One of our newspapers improvised a small panel of epidemiologists to give their opinion on the descalation plan put forth by the Spanish government. Some said it was too hasty, some said it was unnecesarily slow, some said it was just right. At the end we still know too little and our governments are still making political decisions based on often contradictory scientific advice.

(I'm partial to the "err on the side of caution" in these situations).

[Tamas]

We should move it to another thread but I'm interested in your take in his personality.

A British Goebbels, by chance having his minority-complex dominated frustrated worldview align with the nihilistic zeitgeist.

[Richard Hakluyt]

One of our newspapers improvised a small panel of epidemiologists to give their opinion on the descalation plan put forth by the Spanish government. Some said it was too hasty, some said it was unnecesarily slow, some said it was just right. At the end we still know too little and our governments are still making political decisions based on often contradictory scientific advice.

(I'm partial to the "err on the side of caution" in these situations).

The problem is we don't even know what the cautious approach is. There are significant indirect costs in lives and people's health caused by the lockdown itself; prolong it too long and they will exceed the costs of the virus itself.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52461034

BBC articles goes into these costs......a lot of hypothesising............even with the best will in the world it is hard to know how to proceed.

[MadImmortalMan]

Incentive-wise, the worst ones we have are the disincentives to save money. If you can do that, you can sit out a lockdown for a few months.

But yes, there are more ways besides death itself to ruin a life. A stopping of everything can ruin more lives than it saves. Sort of.

[Tamas]

Not representative, but still interesting:

In Hungary, there have been 12,440 tests done privately (if I understand the timeframe correctly, between early March and 16 April), mostly two big corporations paying to have all (well, most) of their employees tested. So, as opposed to other tests where usually you had to at least show some symptoms or been exposed to an infected person to be tested, these were across the board and no regard to your confirmed exposure.

55 of hose 12 thousand tests came back positive, so 0.4%. I guess the tests used might just suck, but it seems to put a bit of a dent into the assumptions/hopes of the hordes of asymptomatic cases.

[Duque de Bragança]

Seems the national emergency crisis will be alleviated by May 2nd in Portugal. Hopefully, no second wave damage or limited. I am worried since tourism plays a large part in the economy and there will be no mass tourism this year.

In France, the lockdown will be eased sequentially from May 11th to June 2nd, and adjusted on green or red zone basis, depending on infection rates, ICU beds availability and so on.
Hardest hit regions are Paris/Île-de-France and East; Alsace, Lorraine and Champagne-Ardennes. Most cases are in Alsace and Lorraine, however.
No trips greater than 100 km, except for serious reasons but the end of cell-phone or paper derogations when one goes out though.
Édouard Philippe, understandably tense and bumbling even more than usual, credited the lockdown for saving 70,000 lives.
https://www.france24.com/en/20200428-live-pm-philippe-unveils-france-s-plan-to-ease-covid-19-lockdown

Situation is slowly improving according to figures.

[Syt]

And the award for worst info graphic goes to ...

[celedhring]

I thought it was a parody at first 

[celedhring]

Not representative, but still interesting:

In Hungary, there have been 12,440 tests done privately (if I understand the timeframe correctly, between early March and 16 April), mostly two big corporations paying to have all (well, most) of their employees tested. So, as opposed to other tests where usually you had to at least show some symptoms or been exposed to an infected person to be tested, these were across the board and no regard to your confirmed exposure.

55 of hose 12 thousand tests came back positive, so 0.4%. I guess the tests used might just suck, but it seems to put a bit of a dent into the assumptions/hopes of the hordes of asymptomatic cases.

Anecdotical "dragnet" style testing over here has yielded similar results over here. Right now we've a more serious serological study going so we'll see I guess. NY figures were actually quite high by comparison.

[jimmy olsen]

Which reminds me: from a philosophical point of view, aren't the anti-lockdown protesters in the US more in line with the setup of the country in general?

If there is no universal state healthcare, and the majority still seemingly not seeing the need for it, then is it really the state's concern if more people die of infectious diseases than usual?

Should not the private hospitals spend to stay on top of the need for capacity and their success or failure in doing so should not be purely a matter between private service providers and their customers?

polls are showing 75 to 80 are more worried about ending the lockdown to early compared to too late.

[Sheilbh]

One of our newspapers improvised a small panel of epidemiologists to give their opinion on the descalation plan put forth by the Spanish government. Some said it was too hasty, some said it was unnecesarily slow, some said it was just right. At the end we still know too little and our governments are still making political decisions based on often contradictory scientific advice.

(I'm partial to the "err on the side of caution" in these situations).

The problem is we don't even know what the cautious approach is. There are significant indirect costs in lives and people's health caused by the lockdown itself; prolong it too long and they will exceed the costs of the virus itself.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52461034

BBC articles goes into these costs......a lot of hypothesising............even with the best will in the world it is hard to know how to proceed.

Yeah. UCL have done some analysis of the decline in cancer outpatient treatment (both chemotherapy and early diagnosis are done by two-thirds to three-quarters) and they estimate about an extra 20,000 deaths due to delays in treatment and diagnosis.

The health impact of no more outpatient treatment and the domestic violence and child abuse issues are the biggest worries I have about lockdown consequences.

[Agelastus]

And the award for worst info graphic goes to ...

Well, if I'm reading it correctly (which I probably am not) I do wonder how England and Wales managed a higher daily death rate than the whole of the UK including England and Wales on the 7th April (and other dates.)