Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Tamas]

Care home deaths in the UK from Covid-19 over the last two weeks: 4343

[Sheilbh]

I think that number is the care home deaths in week 16 (i.e. 10-17 April). And it's not clear they've peaked - hospitals did on 8 April, care homes might have on 12 April but it's not clear yet. Apparently this is something that's seen in other countries' care home fatalaties such as Belgium.

But even so the spike is really grim - apparently the worst week since 1970 during the Hong Kong flu, but the difference is that hit in winter so made flu season even worse. This is in a time when deaths tend to be trending down:


I think it's probably, based on the numbers up to 17 April and the FT extrapolating 40,000 last week that we're now around 45-50,000 deaths in all locations

Edit: The thing I find really shocking about that spike chart is that in week 16 covid almost killed as many people as the 5 year weekly average for this time of year.

[celedhring]

Strangely no Tuesday bump this Tuesday. +301 dead, +1,300 confirmed positives. Some regions are starting to report that their ICU capacity is below 100% of regular ICU beds (as opposed to the "surge" capacity that has been deployed for this crisis).

[Syt]

1st May will be the end of stay at home order in Austria. However, many measures stay in place (masks in supermarkets and public transports, keeping 1 meter distance in public from people not of your household, though if subways are too crowded it will not be enforced). Playgrounds and all shops may open. Shops may permit up to 1 customer per 10 square meters (previously 20 m²). Masks in shops remain obligatory. Playgrounds also re-open.

Restaurants open May 15th with a closing time of 11 pm. There must be a distance of at least 1 meter between tables. Staff must wear masks. Up to 4 people per table (plus kids). Ideally, people should reserve tables in advance to avoid lines for entry.

Hotels and public pools to re-open on May 29th. Detailed rules to follow.

Events for up to 10 people are permitted (30 at funerals).

Where possible, people should keep working from home, but the rules for 1 m distance are also supposed to be kept at work.

No idea how all this is going to be policed, but I guess we will see if we'll have another increase of cases in June.

[Sheilbh]

More on the care home figures - as Chris Whitty says it's important to look at total excess mortality - because there will be direct and indirect deaths. This is really clear here:


Obviously some of the non-covid-19 deaths may just be undiagnosed (but there's not been an uptick in deaths by pneumonia or other respiratory conditions so I'm not sure how much that applies). However hospital deaths by non-covid-19 causes are running at about 2/3s the average, so I wonder how much of this is people with other conditions who were moved out of hospitals into care homes to create capacity in the NHS?

[Maximus]

Two meat packing plants in Iowa make up something like 75% of the COVID cases in the state.

A couple of meatpacking plants in Alberta have a very large percentage of our new cases as well.

Same in southern Delaware

[Tamas]

More on the care home figures - as Chris Whitty says it's important to look at total excess mortality - because there will be direct and indirect deaths. This is really clear here:


Obviously some of the non-covid-19 deaths may just be undiagnosed (but there's not been an uptick in deaths by pneumonia or other respiratory conditions so I'm not sure how much that applies). However hospital deaths by non-covid-19 causes are running at about 2/3s the average, so I wonder how much of this is people with other conditions who were moved out of hospitals into care homes to create capacity in the NHS?

This is turning out to be quite a purge.



I hope Cummings is happy

[Sheilbh]

This is turning out to be quite a purge.



I hope Cummings is happy

Yes. Truly they'll be thrilled at a disease that is decimating their core constituency/party membership base

Interesting side note - UK public opinion are more likely to think will have a big impact in a year's time on the economy etc than other countries. But also the most reluctant to lift lockdown (23% want it relaxed, 70% don't). And it's not polarising in the way it is in the US. So the Brexity/elderly newspapers are a little bit antsy about the lockdown, but Brexity/elderly voters are the most strong on wanting lockdown to continue (unlike in the US). People who are most likely to want lockdown relaxed are who you'd expect: young, urban people (so, generally, Labour voters).

[Syt]

1st May will be the end of stay at home order in Austria. However, many measures stay in place (masks in supermarkets and public transports, keeping 1 meter distance in public from people not of your household, though if subways are too crowded it will not be enforced). Playgrounds and all shops may open. Shops may permit up to 1 customer per 10 square meters (previously 20 m²). Masks in shops remain obligatory. Playgrounds also re-open.

Restaurants open May 15th with a closing time of 11 pm. There must be a distance of at least 1 meter between tables. Staff must wear masks. Up to 4 people per table (plus kids). Ideally, people should reserve tables in advance to avoid lines for entry.

Hotels and public pools to re-open on May 29th. Detailed rules to follow.

Events for up to 10 people are permitted (30 at funerals).

Where possible, people should keep working from home, but the rules for 1 m distance are also supposed to be kept at work.

No idea how all this is going to be policed, but I guess we will see if we'll have another increase of cases in June.

The user comments on most news sites are agreeing on several points:
- "Why do we still have to wear those fucking masks? WTF!!"
- "WTF are those rules for restaurants? Might as well not go!"
- "This is getting stupid, let us live our lives again! Hardly anyone died!"

[mongers]

This virus is going like wildfire in some prisons around the world and certainly in some US ones, Marion county correctional institute in Ohio reports 80% of inmates have the virus, so some 2,000 inmates and staff.

[Tamas]

Which reminds me: from a philosophical point of view, aren't the anti-lockdown protesters in the US more in line with the setup of the country in general?

If there is no universal state healthcare, and the majority still seemingly not seeing the need for it, then is it really the state's concern if more people die of infectious diseases than usual?

Should not the private hospitals spend to stay on top of the need for capacity and their success or failure in doing so should not be purely a matter between private service providers and their customers?

[The Minsky Moment]

philosophical . . . US

There's the fallacy in the inquiry.  The presumption that people are proceeding from a unified and coherent philosophical position.

Americans want universal healthcare and lots of coverage, and they don't want to pay taxes for it, or pay high premiums for it, they don't trust the government to do it, or the insurance companies, they don't think the current system works and they are suspicious of or don't like every other proposed system.  Americans want square circles and unicorns and they really dig angels.  If you can draw inferences about "the setup of the country in general" from all this, power to you.

[The Brain]

America's config.sys and autoexec.bat don't make any sense at all.

[Iormlund]

Fortunately their command.com is on point.

[celedhring]

So, the government has unveiled the descalation plan. It will be in 4 phases, and it will last 2 months if everything goes well. Provinces will begin at Phase 0 (current situation) on May 4, and will be able to advance to the next phase after two weeks of meeting several criteria (infection rate, testing, etc...). Some islands (Hierro, Formentera, Menorca, Graciosa) will begin straight at Phase 1.

Phase 0: current state.
Phase 1: small shops open, hotels open but not common areas, sports are allowed to go back to training. Restrictions on personal mobility are lifted, but can't leave the province.
Phase 2: restaurants, bar, cinemas, museums, malls, etc... open with a 30% capacity limitation (I doubt many of these businesses are profitable at 30% capacity, but I guess it beats being shut down). "Mass gatherings" of 50 people indoors and 400 outdoors allowed.
Phase 3: "New normal". Capacity limits lifted to 50%, beaches reopen. Interprovincial mobility restored (if all are in the same phase).


The whole thing about making it per provinces makes sense, but I see issues with people who moved to a different province for work.

School to return in September.