Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[alfred russel]

On April 12 the French carrier Charles de Gaulle pulls into port. Over 1,000 test positive for Covid 19 by April 18. To date, none have died. About half are asymptomatic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_Charles_de_Gaulle

[alfred russel]

I want you to know that you guys are very boring.

They have to know that.

I admit that I rarely read Dorsey's posts (I think he may be the only person I don't read).  It's not that he's full shit most of the time, he is but that could be said of a lot of posters, it's that his bullshit is boring.

What can I say? I'm an accountant.

It is also hard to match the excitement of our yellow press which is bent on scaring the shit out of everyone to keep up ratings.

[merithyn]

It's funny/sad, but mostly sad, to see Dorsey try to spin this pandemic as no biggie. The US has been terrible in its response, it's now killed more folks than the Vietnam war with no sign of stopping and the second wave is a guarantee, with states lifting lockdowns or not having implemented any in the first place.

He lives in a world where public health experts with decades of pandemic response are wrong, but Kemp, De Santis and Dorsey are right

You will upset the Americans who think all is well.

Which Americans,  besides Dorsey, would that be? Just curious, because this American is fucking losing sleep over the current situation.

[alfred russel]

It's funny/sad, but mostly sad, to see Dorsey try to spin this pandemic as no biggie. The US has been terrible in its response, it's now killed more folks than the Vietnam war with no sign of stopping and the second wave is a guarantee, with states lifting lockdowns or not having implemented any in the first place.

He lives in a world where public health experts with decades of pandemic response are wrong, but Kemp, De Santis and Dorsey are right

You will upset the Americans who think all is well.

Which Americans,  besides Dorsey, would that be? Just curious, because this American is fucking losing sleep over the current situation.

I realize you, CC, and Zoupa are probably just trolls, but in the event someone reading this is unclear...

I was posting that Kemp was a dumbass from the very beginning of this, long before he opened the gyms, tattoo and massage parlors, nail saloons etc. He is a shit and made that clear even before he stepped up to national prominence. When he opened everything, my response was to say that didn't make sense.

Meri--go fuck yourself.

[DGuller]

What can I say? I'm an accountant.

It is also hard to match the excitement of our yellow press which is bent on scaring the shit out of everyone to keep up ratings.

I think it's easy to overdo it, and I think a lot of posters here get so wrapped up in rebutting you that they end up saying something dumb in the other direction.

That said, here are some hard numbers:  COVID-19 killed 1 out of 500 New York City residents already.  That the bare minimum death rate we can assume.  More realistically, it has to be a couple of times greater than that, because even in NYC only a fraction were infected.  So, the realistic population death rate is at least 0.2% in case of uncontrolled growth, and is likely to be in the 0.5% - 0.8% range.  That's still more than a million of people in US, in one year, and likely several million.

Do you think a disease that can kill 1M-3M Americans in a single year is the stuff of yellow press?

[viper37]

What can I say? I'm an accountant.

It is also hard to match the excitement of our yellow press which is bent on scaring the shit out of everyone to keep up ratings.

I think it's easy to overdo it, and I think a lot of posters here get so wrapped up in rebutting you that they end up saying something dumb in the other direction.

That said, here are some hard numbers:  COVID-19 killed 1 out of 500 New York City residents already.  That the bare minimum death rate we can assume.  More realistically, it has to be a couple of times greater than that, because even in NYC only a fraction were infected.  So, the realistic population death rate is at least 0.2% in case of uncontrolled growth, and is likely to be in the 0.5% - 0.8% range.  That's still more than a million of people in US, in one year, and likely several million.

Do you think a disease that can kill 1M-3M Americans in a single year is the stuff of yellow press?

I believe those numbers do not include people dying at home or in LTCs, unlike Quebec&Canada's numbers?

[viper37]

Do you think a disease that can kill 1M-3M Americans in a single year is the stuff of yellow press?

to be fair, some newspapers and some medias are spewing shit about this, on all sides of the political spectrum.

[DGuller]

What can I say? I'm an accountant.

It is also hard to match the excitement of our yellow press which is bent on scaring the shit out of everyone to keep up ratings.

I think it's easy to overdo it, and I think a lot of posters here get so wrapped up in rebutting you that they end up saying something dumb in the other direction.

That said, here are some hard numbers:  COVID-19 killed 1 out of 500 New York City residents already.  That the bare minimum death rate we can assume.  More realistically, it has to be a couple of times greater than that, because even in NYC only a fraction were infected.  So, the realistic population death rate is at least 0.2% in case of uncontrolled growth, and is likely to be in the 0.5% - 0.8% range.  That's still more than a million of people in US, in one year, and likely several million.

Do you think a disease that can kill 1M-3M Americans in a single year is the stuff of yellow press?

I believe those numbers do not include people dying at home or in LTCs, unlike Quebec&Canada's numbers?

They do, I added together confirmed and probable NYC COVID deaths.

[fromtia]

I'm just barely gonna be unemployed by then 

(The UC President said no furloughs or layoffs through the fiscal year)

I'm sorry you'll be missing out on the perversions. I think you live in CA? That's a state that actually pays too. 

If it's any comfort FL isn't paying and theres a Ron DeSantis presser in 20 minutes anounncing the reopening plan.

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/denials-soar-florida-rejects-thousands-unemployment-claims/QRDKZNMSHJGCFMJQLHA3PV3D24/

I'm sort of anticipating being back at work in a couple of weeks, for no money. Thank god I didn't receive any UI though.

[fromtia]

It is also hard to match the excitement of our yellow press which is bent on scaring the shit out of everyone to keep up ratings.

I'm afraid to admit I skim your posts, and that's being generous. I appreciate you adding this TL:DR though, I was picking up a strong "it's just the flu/lib media panic" which wasn't making me curious. I read this article in Scientific American today, which I found interesting and then I farted about on the CDC website afterward. I found it interesting as the CDC's Flu numbers have been used for months now by Conspiracy Theorists and Right Wingers to advance their narrative. I am not an accountant, I'm a waiter and went to school for fine arts, so I defer to your grasp of numbers.See what y'all think.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm

[DGuller]

It is also hard to match the excitement of our yellow press which is bent on scaring the shit out of everyone to keep up ratings.

I'm afraid to admit I skim your posts, and that's being generous. I appreciate you adding this TL:DR though, I was picking up a strong "it's just the flu/lib media panic" which wasn't making me curious. I read this article in Scientific American today, which I found interesting and then I farted about on the CDC website afterward. I found it interesting as the CDC's Flu numbers have been used for months now by Conspiracy Theorists and Right Wingers to advance their narrative. I am not an accountant, I'm a waiter and went to school for fine arts, so I defer to your grasp of numbers.See what y'all think.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm

I really dislike the tone in the first article.  I'm sure the author means well, but being right should always take precedence over saying the right thing.

The reason CDC estimates flu deaths is the same reason we all try to estimate COVID infection rates or fatality rates now.  There is a realization that actual counts are not capturing the quantity that is most useful and relevant, but they may be helpful as starting points in order to produce the best estimate of the actually useful quantity.  There is no reason why for different illnesses the ratio of actual counts to best estimate counts should be the same, and it's conceivable that actual death counts could be more accurate for COVID than for flu. 

If getting useful numbers to act on was a simple matter of tabulation, people like me would be out of a job.

[fromtia]

DeSantis is talking about peoples civil liberties, States over reaching and media hysteria and bad modelling causing panic. He's virtue signalling like a champ right now. Waiting for the details. Imma stop watching and read the recap I think.

[Berkut]

It is also hard to match the excitement of our yellow press which is bent on scaring the shit out of everyone to keep up ratings.

I'm afraid to admit I skim your posts, and that's being generous. I appreciate you adding this TL:DR though, I was picking up a strong "it's just the flu/lib media panic" which wasn't making me curious. I read this article in Scientific American today, which I found interesting and then I farted about on the CDC website afterward. I found it interesting as the CDC's Flu numbers have been used for months now by Conspiracy Theorists and Right Wingers to advance their narrative. I am not an accountant, I'm a waiter and went to school for fine arts, so I defer to your grasp of numbers.See what y'all think.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm

I really dislike the tone in the first article.  I'm sure the author means well, but being right should always take precedence over saying the right thing.

The reason CDC estimates flu deaths is the same reason we all try to estimate COVID infection rates or fatality rates now.  There is a realization that actual counts are not capturing the quantity that is most useful and relevant, but they may be helpful as starting points in order to produce the best estimate of the actually useful quantity.  There is no reason why for different illnesses the ratio of actual counts to best estimate counts should be the same, and it's conceivable that actual death counts could be more accurate for COVID than for flu. 

If getting useful numbers to act on was a simple matter of tabulation, people like me would be out of a job.

I actually got into this exact argument with someone.

They posted something about NYC adding another 3700 covid deaths to their total because they decided to count people who were diagnosed with covid and died, but not actually tested, as covid deaths. His contention was that this was evidence that hospitals and doctors were inflating the numbers, because if they were not TESTED for covid, it is dishonest to report them as covid deaths.

Now, the level of stupid there alone is...significant.

But no matter. Because he then went on to post the CDC estimate of flu deaths per year, and the article he sourced actually stated what this article did - that CDC estimates for flu deaths are just that, estimates - because most people who go into the hospital and die from the flu are not tested for the flu, because, well, from a treatment standpoint it doesn't really matter - you are treating the pneumonia they contracted, or their CPD that the flu has made radically worse, or a bronchial infection that the flu brought on, or any number of other conditions. And if you die, your cause of death is typically recorded as the more specific cause, rather than the flu.

When I pointed out to him that he seemed to be rather selective in how he was willing to accept estimates, he got very angry and accused me of arguing in bad faith and ended the discussion.

I think it is a good article, but don't agree with it saying that flu deaths are over-estimated. They are estimated to be sure, and what it actually means for the CDC to cite a "flu death" isn't nuanced as well as it should be, but I don't think the numbers are wrong, per se.

But the basic point of the article is valid, IMO.

[alfred russel]

What can I say? I'm an accountant.

It is also hard to match the excitement of our yellow press which is bent on scaring the shit out of everyone to keep up ratings.

I think it's easy to overdo it, and I think a lot of posters here get so wrapped up in rebutting you that they end up saying something dumb in the other direction.

That said, here are some hard numbers:  COVID-19 killed 1 out of 500 New York City residents already.  That the bare minimum death rate we can assume.  More realistically, it has to be a couple of times greater than that, because even in NYC only a fraction were infected.  So, the realistic population death rate is at least 0.2% in case of uncontrolled growth, and is likely to be in the 0.5% - 0.8% range.  That's still more than a million of people in US, in one year, and likely several million.

Do you think a disease that can kill 1M-3M Americans in a single year is the stuff of yellow press?

I think the current environment involves a panic that is attributable in part to a yellow press.

The disease is real and the death toll (with or without countermeasures) is severe. That does not mean that it isn't sensationalized. The data available very early on indicated that the death toll would be much more significant than the flu but likely below 1% in the population at large and quite a bit less than the Spanish flu – I pointed that out over a month ago, and all I got was grief. I think the evidence is coming in to support that I was right.

I was talking to a 61 year old with diabetes (otherwise in good health) last weekend and he told me he is terrified of getting the virus because for someone at his age it will be a death sentence. He is a consumer of cable news—that point of view is just dumb. If he gets infected, his risk is not trivial, but the odds are clearly in his favor. His mindset is panicked and irrational.

The media is quick to report any cases that involve young people, and the result is a warped view of what is happening. CDC data is provisional and incomplete – they have ~48k US deaths with covid versus 60k in most sources (there is a lag in reporting to them). However, in the 5-24 age group, they had a whopping 55 deaths due to covid. The population is 83 million. The triviality of the risk to the young is not the impression one gets from the media.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[Sheilbh]

But how much of that lower death rate (direct and indirect) is because lockdown has, generally, ensured healthcare systems aren't overwhelmed? And we will need to look at overal excess mortality not just the official covid figures to get a real figure in an epidemic. Measuring the direct v indirect fatalities will be more difficult within that.

Totally agree on the age profile - it is low risk for younger people and very low risk for children, but that doesn't mean there's no risk. I think in the UK 90% of the deaths have been over 60s so far.

But I don't think it's necessarily media sensationalism, I think it's probably at least partly a comms strategy to avoid young people thinking they're not at risk so they don't need to do anything when even if the risk to them is lower they are a transmission route (again, except, young kids possibly - Switzerland is now allowing young kids to hug their grandparents).