Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[OttoVonBismarck]

Otto and CC both seem to be taking these numbers quite personally.

Here's the thing, many thousands of people are going to die of this all over the country. A few countries, most of them in Asia, seemed to have a really amazing response right away. The rest of the world I think has mostly had "degrees of poor response", anyone that thinks the U.S. response has been great are delusional, and I've never said anything otherwise. A significant reason, and I hope the press hammers this home until November--is in early February Trump did not want confirmed cases going up, and I think that had a definitive chilling effect throughout DHHS. I won't go as far as to blame Trump for the CDC's bungled early testing, but I think his executive indifference combined with executive opposition to really taking it seriously, absolutely had an effect, through Sec. Azar and on down, of setting us up to fail in the early parts of our response. I think the failure of the CDC test early on was mostly just bureaucratic fail, but I think the continued refusal after we knew the CDC test was bad, to let states, private labs, and other entities run the WHO tests, right away, and at scale, was another policy blunder with administration gremlins hands all over it, and that is probably an even worse thing that Trump's initial indifference, albeit it gets less attention because there aren't Trumpian soundbytes associated with the latter malfeasance.

The social distancing effort in the United States is also largely voluntary, and Trump's continued casting of doubt as to whether the virus is a serious threat, has absolutely lead to many people, particularly older Republicans, not wanting to take this virus seriously and not following social distancing guidelines in a serious way.

But at the end of the day, in spite of all of that, the U.S. has some things well and some things poorly, we have the capacity to do much more than other countries and that is showing now with plans for mass production of ventilators and the ability we have to scale up our testing faster now than any country on earth. I think you could choose to nit pick the response of basically any Western country to covid 19, and from what I can tell some countries are getting off lighter more based on luck than anything their national governments have done. Like Germany has been testing very aggressively, but if their cases started in nursing homes then likely their numbers look much, much worse today. They were lucky that theirs started among fit, young, ski people. The Italians were particularly unlucky that so many of their elderly were exposed so quickly. There is much to learn from mistakes all countries have made in responding to the virus, learning that I hope leads to long term policy changes. But for someone to sit on our northern border, a country that has thousands of cases of its own and likely will pass 1,000 deaths before the virus abates, to sit and basically mock a country that is responsible for its shared defense and economic well being because we are having worse outcomes isn't just absurd--it's deeply immoral.

[mongers]

Another article to counter Trumpist Bullshit

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/27/coronavirus-testing-us/

CC, that's unfair as no one is pasting Trumpist BS.

[Sheilbh]

Police Chiefs preparing guidance on how to enforce the lockdown:

UK police guidelines to clarify lockdown powers following criticism
Exclusive: policing chiefs seek to set out legal powers forces have in coronavirus lockdown
Vikram Dodd
Mon 30 Mar 2020 21.10 BST
Last modified on Mon 30 Mar 2020 21.30 BST

Police chiefs are drawing up new guidance warning forces not to overreach their lockdown enforcement powers after withering criticism of controversial tactics deployed to stop the spread of coronavirus, the Guardian has learned.

The intervention comes amid growing concern that some forces are going beyond their legal powers to stop the spread of Covid-19, with one issuing a summons to a household for shopping for non-essential items and another telling locals that exercise was "limited to an hour a day".

On Monday, former supreme court justice Lord Sumption said that excessive measures were in danger of turning Britain into a "police state", singling out Derbyshire police – which deployed drones and dyed a lagoon black – for "trying to shame people in using their undoubted right to take exercise in the country and wrecking beauty spots in the fells".

The Guardian has learned that the National Police Chiefs Council and College of Policing (NPCC) is rushing through guidance reminding officers that despite politicians' warnings they cannot bar people from going for a run or a drive.

It will state that while certain actions such as driving to exercise may be unwise, they are not prohibited by the emergency powers, according to sources with knowledge of detailed discussions. It is also expected to conclude the law does not restrict people to leaving their home to exercise just once a day.

The Guardian understands that the NPCC chair, Martin Hewitt, wrote to chiefs across the forces in England and Wales over the weekend about the need for greater consistency in the application of emergency powers.

Senior police chiefs are understood to have been concerned over how the unprecedented powers were being implemented in their first few days by some forces, with Lancashire police issuing 123 enforcement notices since Thursday and Bedfordshire police issuing none.

The guidance contrasts with local police actions that have ranged from Derbyshire Police filming dogwalkers in the Peak District with a drone to officers telling a shop to stop selling Easter eggs.

Speaking to the BBC, Sumption attacked the behaviour of police and singled out the Derbyshire force.

"The behaviour of the Derbyshire police in trying to shame people in using their undoubted right to take exercise in the country and wrecking beauty spots in the fells so people don't want to go there is frankly disgraceful," he said.


"This is what a police state is like, it is a state in which a government can issue orders or express preferences with no legal authority and the police will enforce ministers' wishes."

He said that the force – which used dye to turn a blue lagoon near Buxton partly black to deter sightseers – had "shamed our policing traditions".

New legislation was introduced and rushed through parliament to become law on Thursday in a bid to enforce physical distancing and slow the spread and death toll from Covid-19.

Senior police chiefs from larger forces are understood to be concerned about "not turning communities against us", one source with knowledge of discussions said.

On Monday afternoon, the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, praised the police's response to the crisis in general but told reporters that "obviously we need some common sense".

The source of confusion for frontline officers appears to be a gap between what the emergency legislation actually orders and what the government has said it wants people to do.

In his address announcing the lockdown last Monday, Boris Johnson made reference to only exercising once a day – a limitation that is not set out in the law.

There is sympathy in policing for what government is trying to achieve to deal with a national emergency. The unprecedented lockdown measures in the UK are broadly in step with draconian measures countries around the world have or are taking to deal with the pandemic.

Bedfordshire's chief constable Garry Forsyth told the Guardian that his force had avoided enforcement actions by resolving issues diplomatically. He said that problems enacting the emergency laws were inevitable: "It is difficult to get precision on quick legislation. Of course it could do with more clarity. These are unprecedented times and we have to make the best of what we've got."

Sumption said that most of the police forces had acted reasonably but that Derbyshire officers had overstepped their powers: "The police have no power to enforce ministers' preferences but only legal regulations, which don't go anything like as far as the government's guidance."

Stephen White, police and crime commissioner in Durham, said: "I think policing is confused about what it is being asked to do. Police officers have no power to stop people going to the Lake District. It takes a long time to build up trust and a short time to destroy it."

The Metropolitan police commissioner, Cressida Dick, whose force covers London, said no checkpoints were being carried out in the capital and her officers were encouraging people to comply: "Already we have had examples of people who simply hadn't quite heard all the messages – and, only as a very last resort with the current restrictions, using firm direction or even enforcement.

"We're not doing what you might call road blocks or anything like that," she told LBC radio station. "Yes, we stop motorists sometimes, we have a conversation with them."

A spokesperson for the NPCC said:"The vast majority of people are fully complying with the guidance and advice. For the small number who are not we will use enforcement. Given the rapid pace of development forces do not have paperwork specific to the coronavirus regulations.

"Officers are issuing the fines using existing paperwork or statements. All fines issued are legally enforceable and non-payment will result in prosecution."

[mongers]

They've been declared essential shops in the UK 

And troublesome, I cycled through a hamlet on the way home this evening and it's glass recycling tomorrow, of the four household I noticed, the plastic boxes were nearly all full of wine and bear bottles.

One household had four boxes of bottles to recycle; sclerosis rates are going to rocket after this crisis. 

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - I'm keeping an eye on my drinking. But there's not much more to do than crack open the wine in the evening

[Tamas]

Serious question, CC:  are you intentionally being inflammatory with the use of "you guys", "your country", etc, or do you not recognize how the use of "you" in this context is inflammatory?  There are really only two options here, which one is it?

It is a bit funny how you guys close ranks the moment a foreigner goes "USA messed up" - it happened with me once as well, maybe when I suggested your destroyer blowing up in Havana was a US plot to fabricate a CB. 

[Admiral Yi]

It is a bit funny how you guys close ranks the moment a foreigner goes "USA messed up" - it happened with me once as well, maybe when I suggested your destroyer blowing up in Havana was a US plot to fabricate a CB. 

Do three people make a rank?

[crazy canuck]

Another article to counter Trumpist Bullshit

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/27/coronavirus-testing-us/

CC, that's unfair as no one is pasting Trumpist BS.

People made the claim that the US is now doing what it needs to do.  Trump said the same thing on his conference call with the Governors this morning.  It is all Trumpist bullshit

The president has recently taken to pointing to the volume of tests that have been administered — a misleading figure since, according to health experts, the more relevant figure is how many people are being tested per capita. In that regard, the United States still lags well behind other nations like South Korea.

From today

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/world/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

[Valmy]

maybe when I suggested your destroyer blowing up in Havana was a US plot to fabricate a CB. 

What? FUCK YOU YOU PIECE OF SHIT I HOPE YOU GET SICK AND DIE!!

It was an armored cruiser not a fucking destroyer!!

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yes if a single person here on this forum was saying:

President Trump told governors on a conference call Monday that he "hasn't heard about testing in weeks," suggesting that a chronic lack of kits to test people for the coronavirus is no longer a problem. But state officials have painted a different picture on the ground.

They would be wrong. No one is saying that. Stop strawmanning.

[alfred russel]

The president has recently taken to pointing to the volume of tests that have been administered — a misleading figure since, according to health experts, the more relevant figure is how many people are being tested per capita. In that regard, the United States still lags well behind other nations like South Korea.

I agree with that. By the same logic, talking about the US as the infections leader but not looking at the per capita numbers, is also misleading.

CC started this off by calling the US the infections leader, I pointed out we had been running more tests than other countries -  -  and CC objected that we aren't running more tests because of the per capita numbers.

Really hard to square that with anything other than CC being an anti american bigot.

[Eddie Teach]

maybe when I suggested your destroyer blowing up in Havana was a US plot to fabricate a CB. 

What? FUCK YOU YOU PIECE OF SHIT I HOPE YOU GET SICK AND DIE!!

It was an armored cruiser not a fucking destroyer!!

That's as bad as putting Churchill at Verdun. 

[crazy canuck]

I will leave you to your death spiral circle jerk.

[garbon]

I will leave you to your death spiral circle jerk.

Perhaps you did get off too lightly for your previous stance on measures needed to prepare for COVID. You had a relaxed attitude before and are now the cheerleader for 'you're not doing enough!'

[Fate]

Sobering case series of 24 ICU cases in Seattle published today in the New England Journal of Medicine.

Notable 2:1 male:female ratio. Average BMI 33.2. 50% died.

Diabetes is probably the worst comorbid condition to have besides being male. 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2004500?query=featured_home




Patient characteristics in this ICU case series: