Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[DGuller]

No, JR is right from a mathematical perspective.  If the situation is not critical at the moment, then uncertainty is a cause for concern.  If you're certain, we know that we have a manageable problem on our hands.  If you're uncertain, then on one side you have an even more manageable problem (so what), but on the other side you have doom. 

[The Minsky Moment]

If 10% of Americans get infected with this virus, and the virus is only 1/5 as dangerous as believed due to undercounting of infections, that would be 1 in 2,000 chance of dying. 

That means 160,000 dead Americans on those assumptions. 
Using the $10 million value per life used by federal regulatory agencies, that would imply a reasonable spending level of up to $1.6 trillion to combat that outcome.

Of course if the virus is more dangerous  . . . you can figure it.

I confess to the crime of risk aversion.  But it is also useful to point out the full implications of one's assumptions.

[DGuller]

I wonder what the effect on election an outbreak would have.  One obvious outcome is that Buttigieg will be the nominee by default.  The stakes would also get much higher with five or so openings on the Supreme Court.

[alfred russel]

That means 160,000 dead Americans on those assumptions. 
Using the $10 million value per life used by federal regulatory agencies, that would imply a reasonable spending level of up to $1.6 trillion to combat that outcome.

Of course if the virus is more dangerous  . . . you can figure it.

I confess to the crime of risk aversion.  But it is also useful to point out the full implications of one's assumptions.

That is a preposterous assumption. Based on that logic, we should spend $100 trillion to prevent the death of 3% of the population.

Federal regulatory agencies have too many lawyers that results in excessive risk aversion.

[Eddie Teach]

I wonder what the effect on election an outbreak would have.  One obvious outcome is that Buttigieg will be the nominee by default.  The stakes would also get much higher with five or so openings on the Supreme Court.

What about the GOP candidate? Brokered convention?

[Zanza]

18 new cases in Germany, hundreds under observation and testing. Roughly were Italy was about five or six days ago.

[alfred russel]

I wonder what the effect on election an outbreak would have.  One obvious outcome is that Buttigieg will be the nominee by default.  The stakes would also get much higher with five or so openings on the Supreme Court.

What about the GOP candidate? Brokered convention?

Pence is only 60 and looks in reasonably good health.

Pence vs. Buttigieg will be amazing.

[The Minsky Moment]

That is a preposterous assumption.

It's not an assumption.  It is the actual figure used by regulatory agencies spending real federal dollars.

[Sheilbh]

I wonder what the effect on election an outbreak would have.  One obvious outcome is that Buttigieg will be the nominee by default.  The stakes would also get much higher with five or so openings on the Supreme Court.

What about the GOP candidate? Brokered convention?

Trump is a germaphobe. I imagine he'll go full Howard Hughes in the White House.

[Razgovory]

"The chances are good that you will probably not die" is probably true, but not the most comforting of statements.


I saw a clip of a Senator (I think it was Kennedy from Louisiana) asking the head of Homeland security a stupid question.  Do we have enough respirators for every person in the country?

[DGuller]

That is a preposterous assumption.

It's not an assumption.  It is the actual figure used by regulatory agencies spending real federal dollars.

I guess it shows the limitations of aggregating marginal prices into an aggregate price.  The $10M figure makes sense in the context of our current mortality rates.  When death becomes much more common, the value of life decreases in monetary terms. 

[alfred russel]

That is a preposterous assumption.

It's not an assumption.  It is the actual figure used by regulatory agencies spending real federal dollars.

I realize that is what they are using, and it is way too high. it implies a value of human life in the US of $3.3 quadrillion. There are a number of ways to show that is stupid, such as estimating the number of lives that the country should completely bankrupt itself to save.

[grumbler]

Federal regulatory agencies have too many lawyers that results in excessive risk aversion.

I think it is amusing that you believe that your pronouncements about risk have any credibility whatsoever.  Love ya to death, but think that you are maybe the worst person I know when it comes to logically evaluating risk.  It's one harebrained scheme after another (unless all of those are just excellent trolls).

[crazy canuck]

That is a preposterous assumption.

It's not an assumption.  It is the actual figure used by regulatory agencies spending real federal dollars.

Again with the facts. Lawyers 

[Legbiter]

What scares me the most are double-digit numbers of people requiring critcal care all at the same time. The math becomes horrendous very fast.