Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Tamas]

A multi-academy trust has closed its three schools in Wolverhampton, Stokes Poges and London "because our schools have some students of Italian origin", according to a letter to parents first reported by Schools Week.

[Josquius]

My girlfriend has an Italian surname. Can I stay off work?

[Tamas]

My girlfriend has an Italian surname. Can I stay off work?

Worth a shot!

[Sheilbh]

In fairness if I was a kid I'd be fabricating a link to Italy to get an epidemic day.

[Tamas]

In fairness if I was a kid I'd be fabricating a link to Italy to get an epidemic day.

Yeah me too. 

I could also live with some days of home office, I am not going to lie.

[garbon]

Being generous, is it because it was recently half-term and some pupils may have gone home to Italy?

[Richard Hakluyt]

Japan is closing all its schools from 2nd March onwards according to the BBC.

[Sheilbh]

Being generous, is it because it was recently half-term and some pupils may have gone home to Italy?

Maybe. I know some schools are shut because they did half-term ski trips in Italy.

[Josquius]

Japan is closing all its schools from 2nd March onwards according to the BBC.

Hmm, maybe not as insane as it first appears. The Japanese school year starts in April so I guess  they shoukd be heading into summer holiday time anyway.
Though I wonder what it means for entrance exams. The exams for top unis are big risk vectors but also life determiners for the kids.  I think most should be over by then but not all

[Tamas]

A 60 years old Brit in the quarantined Tenerife hotel was complaining:

"I don't think confusion would be the right word to describe it - they are just not able to enforce quarantine conditions. People are able to walk around the buildings and some are even going in the pool. People are walking about and interacting with each other and not wearing masks. They served a buffet-style dinner last night, and people were milling about without masks, touching utensils - the virus is bound to spread.

I understand the guy, but I think he misunderstand the quarantine the same way the press seemed to misunderstand the ship's quarantine: they are not quarantined per individual rooms, the hotel itself is quarantined. And yes, they are fucked if they stay there, that's the idea behind a quarantine: protect the rest by sacrificing the ones inside of it

[The Larch]

IIRC they were actually locked in their rooms for the first couple of days, in order for health authorities to perform a battery of tests, and when those tests were finished they were allowed out of the rooms.

[alfred russel]

I also think the media's been reasonably responsible so far - if anything the big, slightly hysterical reaction is in the markets. This may not be hysterical but at the minute seems a little disproportionate.

Our company has still not reopened our China offices post Chinese New Year and from talking to a colleague at another multinational that wants to reopen their China offices, the government will not allow them to do so.

It seems that this will spread globally, and if the response is that the global workforce stays home for two months of the year: that seems likely to spark a global recession. The market response hasn't been unreasonable if we went of an expectation of no 2020 recession to a 2020 recession in the past couple weeks. If it is unreasonable--it is probably because it hasn't sold off enough! The US market has only lost the gains from the past 4 months!

[alfred russel]

From what I've seen for infection rates/deaths...the common seasonal flu still has it beat.

The statistics you quoted seem to prove the opposite.  The seasonal flu has caused 14K deaths out of 26 million illnesses, or a death rate of 0.05%
COVID-19 on the other hand has caused 2000 deaths out of 75,000 illnesses, or a death rate of 2.6%.

That is on these numbers COVID-19 is about 50 times more deadly then the flu.  If it were to reach the same number of infections as the flu, that would mean over 700,000 deaths.  I would call that pretty catastrophic.

The potential downsides of under-reacting are a MUCH MUCH higher then the downsides of a little media hysteria.

Every year 1.3 million or so are killed in auto accidents with many more seriously injured. I still drive to work every day.

[Valmy]

From what I've seen for infection rates/deaths...the common seasonal flu still has it beat.

The statistics you quoted seem to prove the opposite.  The seasonal flu has caused 14K deaths out of 26 million illnesses, or a death rate of 0.05%
COVID-19 on the other hand has caused 2000 deaths out of 75,000 illnesses, or a death rate of 2.6%.

That is on these numbers COVID-19 is about 50 times more deadly then the flu.  If it were to reach the same number of infections as the flu, that would mean over 700,000 deaths.  I would call that pretty catastrophic.

The potential downsides of under-reacting are a MUCH MUCH higher then the downsides of a little media hysteria.

Every year 1.3 million or so are killed in auto accidents with many more seriously injured. I still drive to work every day.

Let's compare apples to apples dude. Minsky is giving US only numbers, while you are giving world wide numbers. In the US it is about 35,000 die a year in car accidents. If suddenly driving became 50 times more fatal it would definitely impact behavior.

I guess I am missing the point you and Toni are trying to make, though. I mean you get benefits from driving I don't really see how you get benefits from contracting a disease so why are those being compared? I get that people currently die of other diseases that  are much more common...I mean so?

[alfred russel]

Let's compare apples to apples dude. Minsky is giving US only numbers, while you are giving world wide numbers. In the US it is about 35,000 die a year in car accidents. If suddenly driving became 50 times more fatal it would definitely impact behavior.

I guess I am missing the point you and Toni are trying to make, though. I mean you get benefits from driving I don't really see how you get benefits from contracting a disease so why are those being compared? I get that people currently die of other diseases that  are much more common...I mean so?

I didn't realize that the flu totals were US only, though it probably isn't unfair to say that MM isn't comparing apples to apples either--the death rate from the flu isn't likely to be the same in China versus the US (different reporting regimes, levels of medical care, population demographics, etc).

The traffic fatality rate is likely roughly 50 times higher than in the US in places like India, and people still drive to work every day (if they are lucky enough to have a car or moped).