US-Iran War Has Begun! Iran launches dozens of ballistic missiles!

[Sheilbh]

Trump doesn't know the difference between Iran and Iraq. To my mind this puts him at a disadvantage in the region.

And lest we forget the pre-Presidency interview that touched on Suleimani:

[alfred russel]

Sheilbh, what is important is that Trump has corrected the horrible mistreatment of the Kurds.

[OttoVonBismarck]

So what do we think the actual odds are that Trump had never heard of Soleimani prior to deciding to have him killed?

[Hamilcar]

Does anyone have a link to a good analysis on how far away Iran is from a nuclear weapon assuming they remove all constraints on enrichment right now?

[mongers]

Does anyone have a link to a good analysis on how far away Iran is from a nuclear weapon assuming they remove all constraints on enrichment right now?

A good couple of years to make a rather crude device, which wouldn't fit on their IRMBs.

*Me.

[Berkut]

So what do we think the actual odds are that Trump had never heard of Soleimani prior to deciding to have him killed?

I actually would not at all be surprised to find out that there was a standing order to take him out if given the chance, possibly dating back to the Obama admin.

Lets not kid ourselves here. It's not like this guy was some kind of legit military representative of Iran on some kind of actual and acknowledged mission to Iraq.

[Tamas]

Will be interesting to see  what the Iranian response will be.

Since so far it has been nothing, I think it will be... nothing. Denting the side of an oil tanker would just make them look weaker than doing nothing and it's not like they can afford anything bigger.

[Hamilcar]

So what do we think the actual odds are that Trump had never heard of Soleimani prior to deciding to have him killed?

Heard, probably.

Remember? No way. His brain is in the process of dissolving.

[Syt]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/476760-pompeo-after-soleimani-strike-the-europeans-havent-been-as-helpful-as

Pompeo after Soleimani strike: 'The Europeans haven't been as helpful as I wish that they could be'

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the United States's European allies "haven't been as helpful as I wish that they could be" following the U.S. strike in Iraq on Thursday that killed Iran's top military commander, Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

"Frankly, the Europeans haven't been as helpful as I wish that they could be," Pompeo told Fox News's Sean Hannity during an interview Friday night.

"The Brits, the French, the Germans all need to understand that what we did, what the Americans did, saved lives in Europe as well," he added.

The top U.S. diplomat reiterated in the interview his assertion from earlier Friday that Soleimani, a powerful Iranian military figure and leader of the country's elite Quds Force, was planning an "imminent" attack before he was killed.

"There was an attack that was imminent that could have killed dozens or hundreds of Americans," he said, referencing Trump's remarks on the topic earlier in the day.

Pompeo said Soleimani was laying the groundwork for "what they were referring to as the 'big attack,'" saying it was "aiming to take down significant amounts of Americans" and would have "undoubtedly killed locals too."

"This was a good thing for the entire world, and we're urging everyone in the world to get behind what the United States is trying to do, to get the Islamic Republic of Iran to simply behave like a normal nation," Pompeo said.

A number of other global leaders voiced concern this week following the U.S. strike that killed Soleimani and others as their convoy left Baghdad International Airport.

"Peace in the Middle East and the Gulf region should be preserved," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said. "We urge all parties concerned, especially the United States, to maintain calm and restraint and avoid further escalation of tensions."

In a statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry said "such actions don't help resolve complicated problems in the Middle East, but instead lead to a new round of escalating tensions."

German government spokeswoman Ulrike Demme described the strike as "a reaction to a whole series of military provocations for which Iran bears responsibility" but urged caution moving forward.

"We are at a dangerous escalation point and what matters now is contributing with prudence and restraint to de-escalation," she added. 

[Hamilcar]

"The Brits, the French, the Germans all need to understand that what we did, what the Americans did, saved lives in Europe as well," he added.

Go fuck yourself. 

[Sheilbh]

Will be interesting to see  what the Iranian response will be.

Since so far it has been nothing, I think it will be... nothing. Denting the side of an oil tanker would just make them look weaker than doing nothing and it's not like they can afford anything bigger.

We'll see. In part it probably depends on how actually important Suleimani was to their network. But I did see lots of Iran experts saying not to expect anything immediately (maybe because there'll be a power-struggle now there's a big gap).

Obviously they'll be doing everything they can to ramp up their nuclear program - looking at North Korea it's clear that from their perspective making a deal with the international community was a mistake. And now their vulnerability to conventional attacks is clear.

But you're right and it sort of links to Camerus' point. It's weird and difficult to predict because both sides will want to escalate/respond, but neither actually wants an out and out conflict. Given that I wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot of free-lancing in the response because that's more deniable.

[Sheilbh]

"The Brits, the French, the Germans all need to understand that what we did, what the Americans did, saved lives in Europe as well," he added.

Go fuck yourself. 

Also the UK government have confirmed they had no advance warning. How could they have been more helpful?

[Hamilcar]

"The Brits, the French, the Germans all need to understand that what we did, what the Americans did, saved lives in Europe as well," he added.

Go fuck yourself. 

Also the UK government have confirmed they had no advance warning. How could they have been more helpful?

To be a bit more serious: the brazenness with which the US government now routinely lies has eroded its credibility for a generation. I now simply assume what top US officials say is not true until proven otherwise.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Will be interesting to see  what the Iranian response will be.

Since so far it has been nothing, I think it will be... nothing. Denting the side of an oil tanker would just make them look weaker than doing nothing and it's not like they can afford anything bigger.

It's been what, two days? Unless they were already planning something or expected the attack, it would take time to prepare and take action. They're not Trump. They have a goal and strategy and retaliate in a way that works to achieve that goal. Like normal countries.

[The Brain]

"The Brits, the French, the Germans all need to understand that what we did, what the Americans did, saved lives in Europe as well," he added.

Go fuck yourself. 

Also the UK government have confirmed they had no advance warning. How could they have been more helpful?

To be a bit more serious: the brazenness with which the US government now routinely lies has eroded its credibility for a generation. I now simply assume what top US officials say is not true until proven otherwise.

Yes, the US is destroyed as a credible partner for at least a generation.