US-Iran War Has Begun! Iran launches dozens of ballistic missiles!

Started by jimmy olsen, January 02, 2020, 07:22:23 PM

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The Minsky Moment

#75
January 03, 2020, 03:31:28 PM
It doesn't make a lot of sense.  Even if there was a palpable immediate threat (possible) it wouldn't have involved Soleimani personally carrying out an attack Rambo-style.  Whatever threat existed then still exists now.  The IRGC and its Quds arm are powerful and very well-resourced institutions of the Iranian state. Arguably they *are* the Iranian state.  Shooting one guy doesn't dissolve the organization any more then killing a CIA director or the head of a US service branch would paralyze US intelligence or military.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Solmyr

#76
January 03, 2020, 04:47:25 PM
But see, in Trump's mind he *is* the state, and thus any other organization is also personified in its leader. So to him it completely makes sense that striking at the leader will paralyze the organization.

Razgovory

#77
January 03, 2020, 05:03:34 PM
Maybe this guy is a "Load bearing boss", like Sauron.  If you kill him Mount Doom explodes and all the bad guys die.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Barrister

#78
January 03, 2020, 05:15:30 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 03, 2020, 01:39:23 PM
Also, am I the only one who thinks of Traveler when I see the name Soleimani?

I didn't before, but now I can't unsee it. :nerd: :thumbsup:

Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

OttoVonBismarck

#79
January 03, 2020, 05:22:35 PM
Damn that's next level nerdery.

Admiral Yi

#80
January 03, 2020, 07:12:32 PM
If this ramps up, as I expect it to, it's going to present real problems for the impeachment managers as well as the Democratic candidates.  The public might not respond well to their president being bogged down in a trial during a shooting war.

mongers

#81
January 03, 2020, 07:20:10 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on January 03, 2020, 07:12:32 PM
If this ramps up, as I expect it to, it's going to present real problems for the impeachment managers as well as the Democratic candidates.  The public might not respond well to their president being bogged down in a trial during a shooting war.

Ah, so there was a sort of strategy involved in this.
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Razgovory

#82
January 03, 2020, 08:29:07 PM
So Pence seems to be claiming the guy they murdered was connected to 9/11...
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

mongers

#83
January 03, 2020, 09:28:55 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 03, 2020, 08:29:07 PM
So Pence seems to be claiming the guy they murdered was connected to 9/11...

He has it on good authority, the Russians told Trump that.
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Camerus

#84
January 03, 2020, 10:32:02 PM
I'd be surprised if this led to significant escalation. Trump is merely pushing boundaries to try and look strong and shore up domestic support among his base, in a very similar style of brinkmanship to when Kim Jong Un shelled that South Korean island a few years ago.

Trump has very few coherent ideas or themes in his policy-making, but one recurrent theme that does stand out is his aversion to entanglements in foreign affairs that he perceives as costly, especially ground wars. I do not believe his base would want that in the slightest either. Similarly, any conflict with the United States would be so asymmetrical that it's hard to believe that the Iranian leadership would risk taking things to that level either, unless the hardliners are completely out of touch with reality, but there doesn't seem to be much evidence to suggest that's the case.

Razgovory

#85
January 04, 2020, 12:39:40 AM
The US just blasted a Iranian backed-militia convoy in Baghdad.  This is beginning to look like a war.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Admiral Yi

#86
January 04, 2020, 01:08:59 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9q8iPJK_lvo

3 thoughtful responses from Bernie, Mayor Pete, and Tulsi.

Camerus

#87
January 04, 2020, 01:43:33 AM
Quote from: Razgovory on January 04, 2020, 12:39:40 AM
The US just blasted a Iranian backed-militia convoy in Baghdad.  This is beginning to look like a war.

Fake news. US said it wasn't them.

frunk

#88
January 04, 2020, 08:22:48 AM
Quote from: Camerus on January 03, 2020, 10:32:02 PM
I'd be surprised if this led to significant escalation. Trump is merely pushing boundaries to try and look strong and shore up domestic support among his base, in a very similar style of brinkmanship to when Kim Jong Un shelled that South Korean island a few years ago.

Trump has very few coherent ideas or themes in his policy-making, but one recurrent theme that does stand out is his aversion to entanglements in foreign affairs that he perceives as costly, especially ground wars. I do not believe his base would want that in the slightest either. Similarly, any conflict with the United States would be so asymmetrical that it's hard to believe that the Iranian leadership would risk taking things to that level either, unless the hardliners are completely out of touch with reality, but there doesn't seem to be much evidence to suggest that's the case.

I agree that that is probably Trump's intent, however he has shown himself to be so incompetent at foreign affairs and out of touch on what is an appropriate response that I think it'll be very easy to blunder into a serious conflict.

The Brain

#89
January 04, 2020, 11:58:05 AM
Trump doesn't know the difference between Iran and Iraq. To my mind this puts him at a disadvantage in the region.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.
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