Tensions high in Himalayas as China demands Indian troop withdrawal

[mongers]

New, insecure-feeling authoritarians, rattling sabres abroad to solidify their position at home is not a new story...and seldom one that turns out well for anybody.  Especially large, powerful states with territorial ambitions outside their current control.

Taiwan has a lot to be worried about, and Russia is probably happy that nuclear weapons are a thing, lest everything east of Lake Baikal might have been lost already.

Saw an interesting interview with Ai Wei Wei, he said Taiwan is the next move and there would be an extreme confrontation within the next 5 years.

He also likened the CCP to a dynasty and said China has had dynasties that lasted for 200-300 years.

[Jacob]

I mean, it won't be surprising if the PRC moves on Taiwan, but it's a high risk move.

On one hand, if they successfully conquer and hold Taiwan they will achieve a historic goal and prove they can face down the US, the West and the democratic nations.

On the other hand, if they get their nose bloodied, severely damage their economy, and fail to achieve their objectives they might lose the required level of legitimacy in the eyes of the Chinese people and lose power altogether.

And while the US' will to go all in for Taiwan is potentially in question, especially in the face of a potential fait accomplit by China if they get in there fast enough, the Chinese Communist Party doesn't have a particularly impressive war fighting record.

[grumbler]

It would almost certainly be better for the West if the PRiCks moved on Taiwan in the next five years, before they can integrate all the new toys their ArmyNavy has been getting recently into a tested and effective doctrine.  Given that the leadership of the ArmyNavy is chosen for its political acumen rather than its professionalism, and the very limited retention of the enlisted cadre, that will take a while.

[DGuller]

I was thinking the same thing.  I think China will be a belligerent and growing force for a long time.  It would be better for the Western world if they came early, so to speak, before they had time to aim carefully.

[Jacob]

It would almost certainly be better for the West if the PRiCks moved on Taiwan in the next five years, before they can integrate all the new toys their ArmyNavy has been getting recently into a tested and effective doctrine.  Given that the leadership of the ArmyNavy is chosen for its political acumen rather than its professionalism, and the very limited retention of the enlisted cadre, that will take a while.

Yeah, from a "this is a strategic problem" perspective, if there's to be a war involving China sooner is probably better than later because - as you say - they'll be less well prepared. So, if I was playing a grand strategy game with this set-up I'd look to provoke a conflict sooner rather than later.

On the other hand, from a "I live in this world" perspective (not to mention a "I have family in China" perspective), I'd rather postpone any wars involving China as much as possible.

[The Minsky Moment]

And while the US' will to go all in for Taiwan is potentially in question

Question is what does "all in" mean in this context.
The US could make a very significant contribution to Taiwan's defense even if it limits itself to a conventional air/naval commitment.  It plays to what still is a relative US strength. That would put the onus on the PRC to decide whether to escalate further -e.g. strikes on US bases hosted by other nations.

[grumbler]

Yeah, from a "this is a strategic problem" perspective, if there's to be a war involving China sooner is probably better than later because - as you say - they'll be less well prepared. So, if I was playing a grand strategy game with this set-up I'd look to provoke a conflict sooner rather than later.

On the other hand, from a "I live in this world" perspective (not to mention a "I have family in China" perspective), I'd rather postpone any wars involving China as much as possible.

Absolutely, the hope should be "let's postpone a war with China until the thugs of the CCP are overthrown."  That's why I noted that it would "almost" be better "for the West" if Ai Wei Wei was correct.

[Monoriu]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YtKgy_Ji94

[Grey Fox]

That doesn't look like a fun terrain to conduct skirmishes in/on.

[mongers]

Within 5 years also means the possibility of a Trump 'leading' the response to confrontation with China over Taiwan. 

[Razgovory]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YtKgy_Ji94

So long as they just fight with sticks and stones it shouldn't be too bad.

[The Brain]

That doesn't look like a fun terrain to conduct skirmishes in/on.

As long as the teams are reasonably balanced and there are no cheaters I'm sure it's fine.

[Monoriu]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YtKgy_Ji94

So long as they just fight with sticks and stones it shouldn't be too bad.

Sample of an actual weapon used in the conflict.

[Eddie Teach]

What's the point of modern armies engaging in melee?

[Jacob]

What's the point of modern armies engaging in melee?

My guess: limiting the scale of escalation and consequence while fulfilling the need for nationalist chest-thumping.