Tensions high in Himalayas as China demands Indian troop withdrawal

[Admiral Yi]

You'll be sari if you keep it up.

[Valmy]

Ok now surely China and India are not going to go to war over a bit of the Himalayas.

[Jacob]

I'll certainly buy the proposition that the Indian Navy outclasses the Chinese Navy.

The Hindustani Times seem to disagree: http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indian-navy-outgunned-1-to-4-as-chinese-steps-up-presence-in-indian-ocean/story-MIbR4PoOSThQmtIuzRJiVN.html

... though obviously for this sort of thing it's more than just a numbers game, since there are other considerations (like China's desire to throw around their weight in the South China Sea).

I'd say at a guess that the Indian Navy has some ability to interdict shipping in the Indian Ocean.  I don't think that the could totally cut off all shipping, but OTOH, supertankers are pretty big objects, and it would probably be a lot easier to interdict them than it would be to interdict general shipping.

They probably could yeah... though the implications of going after neutral third country shipping are fairly significant, even if they don't directly sink American/ EU/ Russian registered ships. I reckon it's going to be a little more complicated than "ok, we will just cut off their oil supply then" unless the two nations are entering total war footing with little regard to the rest of the world... which seems far fetched to me over contested land in the Himalayas.

[The Brain]

Going after international shipping sounds like a route to rogue status. But in a situation where the die is caste...

[Tonitrus]

Going after international shipping sounds like a route to rogue status. But in a situation where the die is caste...

...nothing is Untouchable.

[dps]

I'll certainly buy the proposition that the Indian Navy outclasses the Chinese Navy.

The Hindustani Times seem to disagree: http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/indian-navy-outgunned-1-to-4-as-chinese-steps-up-presence-in-indian-ocean/story-MIbR4PoOSThQmtIuzRJiVN.html

... though obviously for this sort of thing it's more than just a numbers game, since there are other considerations (like China's desire to throw around their weight in the South China Sea).

I'd say at a guess that the Indian Navy has some ability to interdict shipping in the Indian Ocean.  I don't think that the could totally cut off all shipping, but OTOH, supertankers are pretty big objects, and it would probably be a lot easier to interdict them than it would be to interdict general shipping.

They probably could yeah... though the implications of going after neutral third country shipping are fairly significant, even if they don't directly sink American/ EU/ Russian registered ships. I reckon it's going to be a little more complicated than "ok, we will just cut off their oil supply then" unless the two nations are entering total war footing with little regard to the rest of the world... which seems far fetched to me over contested land in the Himalayas.

Yeah, I would think it would be a foolish move on the part of India, because it would diplomatically isolate them.

Politically and diplomatically, a direct blockade of China's ports would be more palatable, but I'm reasonably sure that's beyond the abilities of the Indian Navy unless the Chinese armed forces are even more of a paper tiger than I think it is.

[jimmy olsen]

Chinese fleet is bigger and more capable, but I'm skeptical they can project force into the Indian Ocean in the face of attacks from local Indian naval and land based forces. Operating thousands of miles away from home in hostile territory is not a trivial endeavor.

[dps]

Chinese fleet is bigger and more capable, but I'm skeptical they can project force into the Indian Ocean in the face of attacks from local Indian naval and land based forces. Operating thousands of miles away from home in hostile territory is not a trivial endeavor.

On what do you base the assertion that the Chinese Navy is more capable than the Indian Navy?

[jimmy olsen]

Chinese fleet is bigger and more capable, but I'm skeptical they can project force into the Indian Ocean in the face of attacks from local Indian naval and land based forces. Operating thousands of miles away from home in hostile territory is not a trivial endeavor.

On what do you base the assertion that the Chinese Navy is more capable than the Indian Navy?

I believe they have a larger number of modern ships.

Anyways, they pelted each other with rocks recently.

http://www.atimes.com/article/military-incursions-escalate-china-india-standoff/

After clash in Ladakh, India braces for more 'shallow intrusions' by PLA

Rajat Pandit | TNN | Updated: Aug 17, 2017, 12:49 PM IST

NEW DELHI: The Indian forces are bracing for more "shallow intrusions" or "needling probes"+ from China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) in vulnerable spots along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), according to sources in the Indian defence establishment.

This assessment comes even as the two forces held a border personnel meeting (BPM) in eastern Ladakh on Wednesday to calm down tempers, a day after Indian and Chinese soldiers pelted stones at each other+ near Pangong Lake.

The PLA is unlikely to try anything near the already restive Sikkim-Bhutan-Sikkim tri-junction+ because Indian troops are militarily much better-placed there and can easily threaten China's narrow Chumbi Valley in the region, if required, the according to India's assessment. "But the PLA could try something in eastern Ladakh, as was seen on Tuesday, or eastern Arunachal Pradesh or Lipulekh Pass and Barahoti in the central sector (Himachal-Uttarakhand)," one of the sources said.

The Indian defence establishment, however, is sticking to its belief that China will not risk a full-fledged war despite its major build-up of troops, artillery, air defence, armoured and other units in the southern part of the Tibet Military District that falls under the Western Theatre Command (WTC) of the PLA, after the Doklam confrontation erupted on the eastern front in mid-June.

The stepped-up "needling" in some areas along the 4,057-km LAC, which stretches from Ladakh to Arunachal, will be part of the PLA's game-plan to ratchet up pressure on India to unilaterally withdraw from the face-off site in the Bhutanese territory of Doklam before winter sets in November-December. "India is ready for mutual troop withdrawal to defuse the stand-off. But China is not. So, our troops are prepared for the long haul," said the source.
But the channels of communication are also being kept open, with some sweeteners thrown in for good measure. Though the PLA declined the invite for the August 15 celebrations at different BPM points on the LAC, Indian soldiers did hand over "sweets" to their Chinese counterparts at multiple locations, including Doklam, on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, at the longish BPM held at Spanggur Gap in Chushul sector of Ladakh in the afternoon, official sources said the two armies led by brigadier-rank officers discussed the "incident" at the Pangong Tso (Tso means lake) as well as the need "to strengthen the existing mechanism to maintain peace and tranquility" to avoid confrontations.

Usually, the troops pull back after some jostling and banner drills in the disputed "Finger-5 to Finger-8" (mountainous spurs) area on the northern bank of the 134-km long Pangong Tso, two-thirds of which is controlled by China as it extends from Tibet to India.
But on Wednesday, they hurled stones and used iron rods to injure each other for the first time in recent years, in a clear indicator of the tense situation prevailing along the entire LAC. Pangong Tso, which is located at an altitude of 13,900-feet across the Changla Pass, and other areas like Chumar, Trig Heights and Depsang in eastern Ladakh have emerged as major flashpoints over the recent years.

Indian troops till some years ago were at a huge disadvantage in the Pangong Lake, saddled as they were with old patrol boats. There were even a few instances of faster and sturdier Chinese boats ramming into Indian ones to disable them. But after the Indian troops inducted 17 new high-speed interceptor boats, each of which can carry 16 to 18 soldiers, they have been conducting strong reconnaissance and area domination patrols in the region over the last few years.

[jimmy olsen]

China also made a racist propaganda video

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/xinhua-video-mocks-india-in-bizarre-chinese-propaganda-on-doklam-standoff-1738602

[jimmy olsen]

Both sides are building up. First article is mosly about China, second is about India.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/china-india-move-tens-of-thousands-of-troops-to-the-border-in-largest-buildup-in-decades-11625218201

China and India have deployed tens of thousands of troops, placed advanced military equipment and built new infrastructure at their disputed border in recent months, as the rivals escalate their long-running standoff.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-27/india-shifts-50-000-troops-to-china-border-in-historic-defense-shift

India Shifts 50,000 Troops to China Border in Historic Move
With even more soldiers patrolling both sides of the disputed areas, any miscalculation could turn deadly.

[Valmy]

This is the most irrational conflict zone in the world. The stupidity of humans really has no limit.

[The Minsky Moment]

It says interesting things about the state of China's leadership today.

The conflict is completely irrational for both sides but it is particularly damaging to China.

The core of China's national security is keeping SLOCs open and preventing a cold war-style containment alliance forming against them.  India is one of the most critical chess pieces in both those games. One would think that Chinese diplomacy would place the highest priority on keeping India as friendly as possible; or at least blocking alignment with the US.

To escalate this insanity from the Chinese side means one or both of two things: (1) the individuals in charge of China's foreign policy right now are utterly clueless, or (2) the leadership is so paranoid about domestic dissent that they will happily engage in obviously counterproductive policy overseas to keep up nationalist sentiment and avoid being seen to back down any anything, even something so trivial in substance.

[Jacob]

It says interesting things about the state of China's leadership today.

The conflict is completely irrational for both sides but it is particularly damaging to China.

The core of China's national security is keeping SLOCs open and preventing a cold war-style containment alliance forming against them.  India is one of the most critical chess pieces in both those games. One would think that Chinese diplomacy would place the highest priority on keeping India as friendly as possible; or at least blocking alignment with the US.

To escalate this insanity from the Chinese side means one or both of two things: (1) the individuals in charge of China's foreign policy right now are utterly clueless, or (2) the leadership is so paranoid about domestic dissent that they will happily engage in obviously counterproductive policy overseas to keep up nationalist sentiment and avoid being seen to back down any anything, even something so trivial in substance.

There's definitely a very strong vibe of "I'm an insecure bully so I'll be as pushy as possible to ensure I get my way" vibe coming from China these days.

Is it personality driven? There are elements in Xi's background that suggests it could be about his insecurities... or maybe there are others in his clique who have a similar attitude.

Alternately, it could be an attempt to distract from internal weaknesses (which much be worrying indeed), or to gain the upper hand in internal CCP conflicts (which is similarly damaging).

Whatever the driver, the fear of perceived weakness seems very powerful with the current Chinese regime, and I reckon it's pretty counter productive.

[Tonitrus]

New, insecure-feeling authoritarians, rattling sabres abroad to solidify their position at home is not a new story...and seldom one that turns out well for anybody.  Especially large, powerful states with territorial ambitions outside their current control.

Taiwan has a lot to be worried about, and Russia is probably happy that nuclear weapons are a thing, lest everything east of Lake Baikal might have been lost already.